Nick Quinn: Expert tips and betting analysis for Caulfield
TAB punting guru Nick Quinn is bullish about the chances of Admiral’s Joker at Caulfield, while the big money keeps rolling in for Alligator Blood in the All-Star Mile. LATEST ODDS
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TAB form expert Nick Quinn casts his eye over the feature races at Caulfield, including the All-Star Mile, and the Group 1 Coolmore Classic at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
QUINNY’S BEST PLAYS
BEST BET
ADMIRAL’S JOKER (Caulfield R8, No.2)
VALUE BET
MR QUICKIE (Caulfield R7, No.7)
LAY OF THE WEEK
STELLAR PAULINE (Rosehill R3, No.1)
CAULFIELD
RACE 5: MORNINGTON CUP PRELUDE (2000m)
The early money has been for progressive stayer Secret Blaze, who heads the market at $2.50.
He enjoyed a tremendous spring, with three wins and a fast-finishing second in the Pakenham Cup before a below par run in the Bagot Handicap as the hot favourite.
Secret Blaze resumed from a spell with a tremendous run in the Blamey Stakes when he finished second to subsequent Australian Cup winner Fifty Stars over 1600m. He steps up to a more suitable 2000m and should return to the winners’ list.
There has been early money for the Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young-trained Salsamor, who is shooting for a third straight win after saluting at Flemington and in the Wangaratta Cup. He opened $9 and is in to $6.50 and shapes as the major danger.
THE TIP: SECRET BLAZE.
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RACE 7: ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)
Punters are sticking with pin-up horse Alligator Blood in the $5m All-Star Mile.
When Tassie filly Mystic Journey won the inaugural race, in 2019, she was well supported on raceday, firming from $4.40 in to $3.60, and it looks as if punters will look to Alligator Blood to ensure the three-year-olds maintain a perfect strike rate in the race.
Alligator Blood has been the best-backed runner overall after opening $11 in pre-post markets and has firmed from $2.80 to $2.70 since the barrier draw. We saw punters rally strongly for him on race day in the Australian Guineas — he was backed from $3.40 to $2.70, and won.
One TAB punter will be hoping Alligator Blood is victorious on Saturday after placing a $3000 wager at $7 on January 15, which would result in a $21,000 collect.
There has been money for Melody Belle. The Kiwi mare has been backed from $6 in to $5 since the barrier draw. She did enough last start when third in the Futurity Stakes. The rain is a big advantage for Melody Belle — she has won nine times on soft ground and is a perfect two from two on a heavy track. The more rain that falls, the more punters will warm to her.
The best-backed longshot is Streets Of Avalon, who has firmed from $51 in to $21 since the barrier draw, including one bet of $1000 the win at $34 and $3000 the place at $8.33.
Streets Of Avalon caused a boilover winning the Futurity Stakes last start and will lead, or sit behind Alligator Blood. Jockey William Pike has stuck with Regal Power and one punter expects it will be a winning move with a bet of $5000 the win at $13 and $10,000 the place at $3.66.
The fact is Alligator Blood has won 10 of his 11 starts and punters again have a chance to nearly triple their money on him. Stick with him to win and have a bet on Mr Quickie at double-figure odds.
THE TIP: ALLIGATOR BLOOD.
RACE 8: ANNIVERSARY VASE (1600m)
Admiral’s Joker is an emergency for the All-Star Mile, but should he fail to gain a start then punters expect him to win this race.
The Kylie Vella-trained runner ran an eye-catching third behind Fifty Stars in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes. Fifty Stars franked that form by winning the Group 1 Australian Cup last Saturday. He has already firmed from $2.40 in to $2.20 and with star hoop Craig Williams in the saddle looks one of the better bets on the program.
There has also been money for Tasmanian raider Hellova Street, who has been backed from $10 in to $5.50. Surprisingly, Hellova Street is winless in seven attempts at Caulfield considering his racing pattern, but he comes into this race with good form having finished in the top two at his past four starts, including a good win in the Sky Stakes and can again fill minor money.
THE TIP: ADMIRAL’S JOKER.
YOU BETCHA
Michael Manley
GOLDEN SLIPPER STAKES
David Hayes has only won one Golden Slipper Stakes but his stable’s horses invariably run well in the race and that should be the case again on Saturday week.
His victory came in 2006, with Miss Finland, and the stable’s representative in this year’s Slipper, Personal has been compared to the superstar by Hayes. Last start she rocketed home for third in the Blue Diamond Stakes.
Craig Williams will ride her and he headed to Sydney ride her in a gallop on Thursday. The
$21 looks appealing odds for her. The stable also has Minhaaj in the race. She is a $9 chance but sits 24th in the order of entry.
ODDS: $21
THE GALAXY
Nature Strip returned to his dynamic best with an easy win in the Challenge Stakes at Randwick last Saturday. What was astounding was the $3.20 on offer about him — and that’s the case in Saturday week’s The Galaxy at Randwick, where he is a $6 chance.
It’s as if punters have abandoned him and are scared to dive back in after his failure in the Black Caviar Lightning. He started at $4.20 when he won The Galaxy last year. Pierata and Bivouac are equal favourites at $4.50.
ODDS: $6
THE MULTI
Miami Bound $1.70 the place in Alister Clarke Stakes (Friday night, The Valley)
Secret Blaze $2.50 to win the Mornington Cup Prelude (Saturday, Caulfield)
Melody Belle $1.95 the place in the All-Star Mile (Saturday, Caulfield)
Admiral’s Joker $2.10 to win the Anniversary Vase (Saturday, Caulfield)
ODDS: $17.40