Caulfield races: Best bets, analysis for All-Star Mile and support card
The forecast wet weather may not have arrived but leading form analyst Michael Manley remains confident raceday riches will come in the shape of a rainbow on All-Star Mile Day. QUADDIE ANALYSIS, BETTING STRATEGIES
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Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley runs the rule over the nine-race card at Caulfield, highlighted by the $5 million All-Star Mile.
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CAULFIELD
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 6m
BEST BET
RAINBOW THIEF (R1, No.6 $2.15)
Always shown above average potential and judging by his last start win he’s ready to deliver. Loves it wet and also should be suited by 1600m.
NEXT BEST
GRAND PROMENADE (R2, No.3 $3.10)
He’s won his past three starts and he’s an exciting staying prospect. He’ll relish the step up to 2400m.
SECRET BLAZE (R5, No.4 $2.50)
He returned from a let-up with a career best run when second to subsequent Australian Cup winner in Fifty Stars. Extra distance should also suit.
ADMIRAL’S JOKER (R8, No.2 $1.90)
He’s coming from the same form lines as he finished third in the Blamey Stakes. Obviously this is easier and at his fourth run back from a spell he should be ready to peak.
BEST EACH-WAY
EXCESS FUNDS (R6, No.2 $7)
Two runs back from a spell have been excellent. They are going to go quickly which should suit him. He’ll be charging home.
OVER THE ODDS
GUIZOT (R8, No.4 $15)
Hard to fathom why his price is $15 as he loves this track and distance. He finished an unlucky third at Group 3 level this track and distance two starts ago.
THE TRAINER
JOHN SADLER
SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (R6, No.1 $4.60)
“He pulled up with the thumps last start. His work since has been excellent and I think he’s ready to run to his best which should have him going close. The only issue will be how wet the track is.”
SAM’S IMAGE (R9, No.8 $15)
“He’s ready to run well. If the rain comes he would enjoy it as it would take the jar out of the track.”
EARLY QUADDIE
3,7,8/1,2,5,6,7/1,2,3,7/2,4,6,7
$100 flexi for 41.66%
BIG6
1,2,3,7/2,4/1,2,6/9,11/2,4/2,6,10
$100 flexi for 34.72%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1,2,6,12
Race 7: 1,3,9,11
Race 8: 2,4
Race 9: 2,5,6,7,10
$100 flexi for 62.5%
FOUR PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY
RACE 1 GRAND HANDICAP MILE (1600m)
$50 WIN on RAINBOW THIEF (6) at $2.15
Bolted in at Sandown Hillside last start coming from off the speed on a day which played to on-pacers. He loves the sting out of the ground. There should be good enough pace in this for him to finish strongly.
RACE 2 GRAND HANDICAP CLASSIC (2400m)
$50 WIN on GRAND PROMENADE (3) at $2.80
He’s lightly raced and showing a stack of potential. He’s aiming to make it four wins on the trot and if anything stepping out to 2400m for the first time will suit him even more.
RACE 6 INGLIS DASH (1100m)
$25 EACH-WAY on EXCESS FUNDS (2) at $7/$2.50
He’s returned this campaign as a gelding for trainer Levi Kavanagh and his two runs have been excellent. He’s going to be suited by the fast speed and look for him to finish powerfully.
RACE 7 ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)
$30 WIN on ALLIGATOR BLOOD at $2.80 and $20 WIN on MELODY BELLE at $5
There looks to be two main chances so split the bet on the stars. If the track is playing to on-pacers then Alligator Blood will be hard to run down. If they are edging away from the fence Melody Belle will charge home. She will also be suited by a wet track.
QUADZILLA
FIRST LEG
Speedster SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (1) is a must have as is the Team Snowden trained filly WAYUPINTHESKY (6). EXCESS FUNDS (2) has returned to racing an improved sprinter as a gelding. He’ll love the fast speed. Team McEvoy’s ATEN (12) races well fresh and didn’t have a lot of luck last spring.
1ST LEG: 1,2,6,12
SECOND LEG
The two must haves for the Quaddie are MELODY BELLE (9) and ALLIGATOR BLOOD (11). Add the two horses who won the major mile races last spring – KOLDING (1) and FIERCE IMPACT (3).
2ND LEG: 1,3,9,11
THIRD LEG
ADMIRAL’S JOKER (2) is the horse to beat. He’s ready to win after his last start third in the Blamey Stakes behind Fifty Stars. GUIZOT (4) loves this track and distance.
3RD LEG: 2,4
FOURTH LEG
This looks the hardest leg. Former Perth mare BATTLE STORM (2) who won her first five starts is a must have. LEITER (6) looks ready to fulfil his early promise. GODDODIN (10) likes this track and distance. GRANDVIEW AVENUE (5) and VILLA SARCHI (7) represent value. If PHOENIX GLOBAL (18) gains a run he’ll be hard to beat.
4TH LEG 2,5,6,7,10
QUADDIE
1st leg: 1,2,6,12
2nd leg: 1,3,9,11
3rd leg: 2,4
4th leg: 2,5,6,7,10
$100 flexi for 62.5%
SKINNY QUADDIE
Narrow the First Leg down to SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (1), EXCESS FUNDS (2) and WAYUPINTHESKY (6). Second Leg the stars MELODY BELLE (9) and ALLIGATOR BLOOD (11). In the third leg take ADMIRAL’S JOKER (2). In the final leg come home with BATTLE STORM (2), LEITER (6) and GODDODIN (10).
1st leg: 1,2,6
2nd leg: 9,11
3rd leg: 2
4th leg: 2,6,10
$25 flexi for 138.88%
MORE RACING ANALYSIS
QUINNY’S TIPS: NO JOKE, ADMIRAL’S A BANKER
OFF AND RACING: DAVO’S TIPS FOR ROSEHILL
WEEKEND BEST BETS: BELLE OF THE BALL
RACE 1: (1.05PM) HANDICAP MILE (1600M)
RAINBOW THIEF (6) is a smart galloper who looks destined for better things than a Benchmark 80 which he is in here. He powered home to win easily at Sandown Hillside last start over 1500m where he came from midfield to win on a day which played to front runners. He’s had four starts on rain affected tracks for three wins and a second. On that occasion he defeated SKIDDAW (7) who is a winner this track and distance. SEBERATE (3) has returned to form and fought on strongly to win at The Valley last start. SUNDAY PRAY (4) doesn’t know how to run a bad race and he’ll push forward and give his usual great sight. EXASPERATE (1) is racing well and won at this track and distance two starts ago.
SUGGESTED BET: RAINBOW THIEF THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
RACE 2: (1.40PM) HANDICAP CLASSIC (2400M)
Lightly raced stayer GRAND PROMENADE (3) has only had five starts and after placings at his first two runs he’s won his past three starts, at his past two he has worn down IGNITER (6) each time. They step up from 2000m to 2400m and that should prove ideal for Grand Promenade. Danny O’Brien’s pair of Savabeel mares IGNORED (7) and CLEMENTINA (8) look the main threats. Former Kiwi mare Clementina has had three Australian starts and she finished off nicely for close-up fourth at Flemington last start behind Ulusaba over 2000m where she was beaten 0.6 lengths. Ignored ran on for well beaten third behind Ghodeleine at The Valley last start over 2040m. NO COMMITMENT (2) and ANAHEIM (1) are the next best.
SUGGESTED BET: GRAND PROMENADE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Grand Promenade $3.20-$3.10 ($400 @ $3.20, $400 @ $3.10); Clementina $5.50-$4.80
RACE 3: (2.15PM) REDOUTE’S CHOICE STAKES (1000M)
You could build a case for every starter. CELESTIAL SHO (2) looked outstanding winning a Cranbourne barrier trial by five lengths leading throughout and defeating Hanseatic over 1000m on a wet track. Since transferred from Robbie Laing to Chris Waller and he showed speed when not pushed out in recent Flemington jump-out. RIVER NIGHT (5) was run down in the closing stages by Golden Slipper chance Ilovemyself at Flemington last start. DESTINATION (1) showed speed and fought on for fourth MASSEUSE (6) cost herself the race when she ran greenly in the straight when second to HARD ROCK GIRL (3), who is aiming for a hat-trick, at The Valley. Black Caviar’s daughter READY FOR CAVIAR (7) has also shown talent in a Flemington jump-out.
SUGGESTED BET: CELESTIAL SHO THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Celestial Sol $3.10-$3.20-$3.10 ($500 @ $3.20)
RACE 4: (2.50PM) VOBIS GOLD REEF (1600M)
THOUGHT OF THAT (1) didn’t fire on a firm track when he resumed at Ballarat. He looked brilliant last spring which included an eight length win at Donald on a soft track and an easy win at group 3 Level over 2000m at Caulfield. Cross-over noseband goes on for the first time.
PARMIE (7) is taking on 1600m for the first time but she’s fit and she can boast the best recent form. At her last start she finished fourth behind Sylvia’s Mother in a Group 3 1400m race at Flemington and was only beaten a length. She’s had two starts here for a first and a second. CASSIUS (2) is racing consistently. He carried a big weight when placed at The Valley behind useful horse in Hi Stranger. WESTERN SUN (4) and IMPERIAL LAD (3) are both racing well.
SUGGESTED BET: THOUGHT OF THAT THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Parmie $4-$3.70 ($1000 @ $3.80), Zoulah $8-$7.50-$8 ($1000 @ $8, $500 @ $7.50)
RACE 5: (3.25PM) MORNINGTON CUP PRELUDE (2000M)
Hard to go past SECRET BLAZE’S (4) last-start second behind subsequent Australian Cup winner Fifty Stars in the Blamey Stakes at his last start. In that race he raced three wide on the speed and kept on fighting. Step up to 2000m will suit even better. ODEON (2) should be able to get smother behind the leaders in this and that’s when he’s at his best. Last start he led and wasn’t beaten far in the Peter Young Stakes behind Miss Siska at Group 2 level here. SALSAMOR (7) followed his Flemington win with an easy win in the Wangaratta Cup. INVERLOCH (6) is likely to lead as he did last start when second this track and distance to the smart Aktau.
SUGGESTED BET: SECRET BLAZE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Salsamor $9-$5.50 ($500 @ $8, $250 e/w @ $7.50/$2.20)
RACE 6: (4.05PM) INGLIS DASH (1100M)
EXCESS FUNDS (2) resumed as a gelding this campaign with a narrow win over Express Pass over 1000m at Flemington. He then finished fourth at The Valley behind Our Gladiator where he sat wide throughout and was only beaten 1.35 lengths. He ran 11 metres further than the winner. He handles the wet. WAYUPINTHESKY (6) was a listed winner last spring and was also competitive at Group 3 level. Team Snowden is sure to have her ready for a $500,000 race. SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (1) will fly from barrier one. Main concern for him will be how wet the track is. ATEN (12) races well fresh and didn’t have a lot of luck last spring/
SUGGESTED BET: EXCESS FUNDS EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Wayupinthesky $5-$4
RACE 7: (4.45PM) ALL-STAR MILE (1600M)
Can’t fault the form of star three-year-old gelding ALLIGATOR BLOOD (11) who will be the one they have to catch here. He’s likely to lead and with his weight advantage over the older horses and he’ll be hard to get past. Only loss was this track and distance to Super Seth in the Caulfield Guineas and that was in the final stride. MELODY BELLE (9) is a ten Group 1 winner who has been set for this race. She’ll love the wet and she flies second-up and over 1600m. KOLDING (1) has been fair in his two runs this time in but Chris Waller is sure to have him primed for this. FIERCE IMPACT (3) emerged last spring as one of the best milers in the land. His two runs this time in have been sound. At his last start he flew home for third behind Te Akau Shark in the Chipping Norton Stakes at Randwick. MR QUICKIE (7) flies fresh and has the talent to be a factor in this. Perth pair of SUPERSTORM (13) and REGAL POWER (4) also have claims.
SUGGESTED BET: ALLIGATOR BLOOD THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kolding $11 unchanged ($500 @ $11); Regal Power $13-$10 ($5,000 x $10,000 e/w @ $13/$3.66); Melody Belle $4.50-$5 ($500 @ $5, $250 e/w @ $5/$1.95); Alligator Blood $2.70 unchanged ($2500 @ $2.70, $2000 @ $2.70 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1000 @ $2.70 MULTIPLE TIMES)
RACE 8: (5.25PM) ANNIVERSARY VASE (1600M)
Hard to go past ADMIRAL’S JOKER (2) who should be at his peak after three runs back from a spell. At his last start he sat wide and fought on third behind Fifty Stars in the Blamey Stakes. GUIZOT (4) loves this track and distance. He finished an unlucky third in the Carlyon Cup here three starts ago behind Miss Siska and then was trapped wide throughout when he finished eighth in the Blamey Stake. GOLD FIELDS (3) is a specialist miler and his first-up fourth at Flemington over 1400m suggests he’s ready to fire. Tough Tassie veteran HELLOVA STREET (1) is holding his form. He’s been beaten at his past two starts by Mandela Effect in stakes races.
SUGGESTED BET: ADMIRAL’S JOKER THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Admiral’s Joker $2.40-$1.85 ($708 @ $2.40, $750 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.30). Deductions: Benitoite 15c Win 13c Place
RACE 9: (5.55PM) HANDICAP SPRINT (1200M)
LEITER (6) has always shown talent and the way he finished off to win at The Valley last start from a seemingly impossible position suggests he might be ready to fulfil it. Last winter he finished third behind Gytrash and Halvorsen over 1000m at Flemington. Former Perth mare BATTLE STORM (2) won her first five starts before failing at her last start as a $1.40 favourite. GODDODIN (10) finished off well for first-up second behind Sophiella at Randwick. She’s a winner this track and distance. If they are swooping home VILLA SARCHI (7) comes into play. GRANDVIEW AVENUE (5) is racing consistently.
SUGGESTED BET: LEITER EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Phoenix Global $5-$4.20. Deductions: Vainstream 1c Win 1c Place