Saturday Racebook: Nathan Exelby’s best bets and analysis for Eagle Farm, Cox Plate

Racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team at Ladbrokes home in on the best chances at Eagle Farm, plus give their take on the Group 1 Cox Plate.

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Eagle Farm and in the Group 1 Cox Plate with help from the Ladbrokes’ bookmaking team.

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EAGLE FARM

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Sunny, 30C

Rail: Out 3m entire track.

THE VALLEY

Weather: 17C showers

Track: Good (4)

Rail: True

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Tatcee (Race 3) $2.00

Cellarmaid (Race 5) $3.10

Soxagon (Race 6) $2.90

Magstock (Race 7) $4.40

VALUE BETS

Keen Array (Race 9) $14

RANDWICK

Kubrick (Race 7) $4

MOONEE VALLEY

Ladbrokes Cox Plate

Mystic Journey/Te Akau Shark $7/$16

LADBROKES ROUND-UP

BIGGEST MOVER

Macewen (Race 10) $2.90-$2.50

OTHER MOVERS

Cellarmaid(Race 5) $3.30-$3.10

Meet Mr Taylor (Race 9) $2.30-$2.20

Bargannon (Race 8) $10-$8.50

LAY OF THE DAY

Soxagon(Race 6) $2.90

BEST BET

The Administrator (Race 10) $12

MOONEE VALLEY

Battenburg (Race 6) $3.20-$2.45

RACE 5: SUPERIOR PAK HANDICAP

1600M, 3YO OPEN, 1.53PM

Nathan says: Cellarmaid is a half-sister to a couple of handy ones and she looks to have plenty of ability herself. Sat back last under Jimmy Orman and then reeled off big sectionals (best last 600m and 200m ratings of all winners on the day) to break her maiden last time. While the opposition probably wasn’t flash, the style of the win suggested she’s got more to offer. It’s a decent step to 1600m off 1350m at Doomben, but her finishing power over the shorter trips suggests she’s up to it. Miss Cavallo should appreciate coming back in grade here after taking on some handy ones this prep. Couldn’t Refuse walked in front and then reeled off a slick closing split to break her maiden.

Ladbrokes say: Market thrown into a bit of chaos with Ballistic Boy coming out and instead heading to Sydney for the Bondi. The ones coming off maiden wins have been the most popular early. Couldn’t Refuse has been $3.50 into $3.30 and Cellarmaid is $3.30 into $3.10 to hold the top line of betting.

The play: Expecting Cellarmaid to take the step to Saturday class.

RACE 6: NUGROW PLATE

1400M, C3 SW, 2.28PM

Nathan says: Soxagon found Desert Man too speedy first up, but still found the line strongly. Taken to Caloundra for an easy kill and it was nothing more than a track gallop. Gets in OK after Baylee Nothdurft’s claim. His rating behind the now Hong Kong domiciled Millard Reaction at Doomben last prep wins this race comfortably. His worst run last prep was at this track over this trip. Did he not run it out, or had he had enough? Hoping it’s the latter. Sets a good standard for this. Aeecee Tong De went well last week, just bumped into a very classy mare. Back to 1400m isn’t an issue and she will keep kicking on speed. Written With Ease has been scratched a few times, but gets in okay under the Plate conditions and has been shaping like this trip will suit.

Ladbrokes say: Soxagon $3 into $2.90 and we will be keen to lay it at that price. Think he’s a risk at the trip and the other two come into it nicely at the set weights conditions.

The play: Hate being against the Ladbrokes lay, but have to be with Soxagon.

Jackson Murphy rides Magstock to victory in the Benchmark 85 Handicap at Eagle Farm.

RACE 7: BUCHER MUNICIPAL HANDICAP

1600, CLASS 6, 3.03PM

Nathan says: After teasing us for 16 months, Magstock finally showed his real ability when bounding down the middle of the track to put his rivals to the sword last time. He has been a conundrum to follow after showing plenty at first two Australian starts, but punters chimed in last time at big odds and it seems Kelly Schweida may have him worked out now. If he repeats what he did last time, he’ll win again. Red Stina was solid fresh. Never looked likely but wound up when it was all over to grab third and 1600m looks to suit better now. Quite a few other fringe hopes if it’s not that pair, including Bargannon (no luck fresh), Get Stuck In (total ignore last time) and Gosford visitor Our Winnie.

Ladbrokes say: No money for Magstock yet. Solid at $4.60. Sprinkle for Bargannon ($10 into $8.50). Interesting drift on Our Winnie — normally Sydney form is very popular, but this one has been $4.80 out to $6. Red Stina is $4.40 favourite but no significant moves yet.

The play: Magstock to repeat the dose.

RACE 8: SUEZ RECYCLING & RECOVERY

1200M, CLASS 6 SW, 3.47PM

Nathan says: Good race. Will Langhro bounce back after finding 1400m beyond him last time? His two previous ratings make him a clear top pick for this, but he now has to prove he’s not just a fresh horse. Tambo’s Mate did plenty wrong, but still landed the prize last time (albeit, the runner-up was super brave after a torrid run). He’s learning all the time and looks set to get a good run for Matt McGillivray, who takes over from Jim Byrne today. Have him on top, but he’s short enough given the opposition. Solar Star has impressed in the two Ipswich wins. Takes on tougher opposition now, but the figures from those wins suggest she will measure up. Shogun Sun didn’t look great to the eye in the trial, but he has quite a few ratings through his career that win this.

Ladbrokes say: Shogun Sun has been the mover, $7.50 into $6.50, but he’s a bit hit and miss. Tambo’s Mate solid at $2.50. Langhro is $3.80 and Solar Star $6, but no moves for either.

The Play: Tambo’s Mate on top, but not seeing great value in the early offerings.

Mark Zahra rides Keen Array (left) to win the Gilgai Stakes in 2017.

RACE 9: TOMRA HANDICAP

1000M, OPEN, 4.32PM

Nathan says: Not many races have value hopes jumping off the page today, but hoping there’s one here. Keen Array had three runs for Toby Edmonds last prep and after the heavy track first up, was excellent off wide gates in the next two at stakes level. Meets Tarzan (5kg) and Meet Mr Taylor (3.5kg) significantly better at the weights for beating them home in the Isaurian race in May and he’s turned in a couple of nice trials. Given the hot tempo up front, can see him sitting off them here and really letting go in the straight. Meet Mr Taylor keeps coming up with poor barriers. His fate will be known after 200m and whether he can cross all the speed inside. Life On The Wire has trialled well but Fiery Heights has been a little more inconclusive.

Ladbrokes say: Meet Mr Taylor is $2.30 into $2.20. He’s clearly one of the most popular horses in Queensland. He’s backed every time he goes around. The ex-Tassie horse Life On The Wire was popular early into $4.20 but now back out to $4.40.

The play: Keen to be with Keen Array at the $14 on offer at the moment.

RACE 10: MELBOURNE CUP @ EAGLE FARM

1200M, RATING 70 HCP, 5.12PM

Nathan says: The scratching of Hollaback Girl from the wide gate stripped what little value was there in the win market. Macewen had a few hard luck stories this prep but it all fell into place for him last time and he powered down the middle of the track to win easily. Similar class, hard to beat again. Don’t think David Vandyke and Brad Stewart will be conceding to him though with Pinnacle Star. While Macewen had a head of steam up, he was still finding room and getting balanced last time. Gets a 2.5kg weight swing and by far the better of the barriers. His stablemate Frangipani Moon has the talent to be in the game, but she wanted to do a lot wrong last time. If she gets cover and a decent tempo, she can be in the game here.

Ladbrokes say: Macewen has been the best backed horse all day. He’s $2.90 into $2.50, punters thinking he can go back-to-back. Pinnacle Star is $3.60 into $3.30 and they dominate the market. Nothing for the others.

The play: Macewen on top, but he’s short enough from the gate. Pinnacle Star looks foolproof, so can banker him in a quinella with the favourite and Frangipani Moon.

Damian Lane pilots Lys Gracieux (right) and jockey Tommy Berry rides Kluger during a trackwork session at Moonee Valley on Tuesday.

MORE TIPPING INFO

THE EARLY OIL: COX PLATE DAY

MELBOURNE CUP: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

QUINNY’S TIPS: $17 SHOT WITH WINX FORM

WEEKEND BEST BETS: MYSTIC POWER TO RULE

SUPERCOACH: HOW TO SCORE BIG IN ROUND 5

LADBROKES COX PLATE

Nathan says: Lys Gracieux could quite easily win as her last start is a benchmark here. But she doesn’t appeal at the same value as most imports go around in Australia. Mystic Journey ($7) was enormous from an impossible position in the Turnbull and will be closer here. Te Akau Shark looks over the odds after drawing wide. He is bred to relish this trip. Kluger goes in all multiples. Massive price given what he did behind Winx (gapped the rest). Castelvecchio and Magic Wand are others I will be including in wider multiples.

Market moves: When final field opened, Castelvecchio was the big mover, from $12 into $7.50, then the move came for Te Akau Shark ($19-$15, back to $16). Yesterday’s money was all about Lys Gracieux ($3.80-$3.60).

Ladbrokes tip: Kluger ($17). The forgotten Japanese runner. Proven under Australian conditions pushing Winx in the Queen Elizabeth. Value at $19.