Oil Reheated: The Valley race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley
It’s one of the toughest days on the racing calendar but leading form analyst Michael Manley has one found that looks the perfect banker. Plus, David Hayes is confident he can repel the raiders in the Cox Plate. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
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Villami went down swinging last start at The Valley after a tough run but should get conditions more on her terms, says leading form analyst Michael Manley.
The three-year-old filly was only beaten by two outstanding fillies in Loving Gaby and Exhilarates and Manley says this race looks easier.
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COX PLATE DAY
Gates open: 10.30am
First race: 12.10pm
Cox Plate: 4.55pm
Last race: 5.45pm
Weather: 17C showers
BEST BET
VILLAMI (R4, No. 3)
BEST BET
VILLAMI (R4, No. 3)
VALUE BET
FINE DANE (R2, No. 5)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3,5,6,7/3/1,3,7,8/1,2,5,9
$100 flexi for 125%
BIG6
1,7,8/1,2,5/4,6,7/10,13/8,10,11,12/2,5,11
$100 flexi for 15.43%
QUADDIE
Race 7: 6,7
Race 8: 3,5,7,10,11,12,13
Race 9: 8,9,10,11,12,14
Race 10: 1,2,4,5,11,12
$100 flexi for 19.84%
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RACE 1: INGLIS BANNER (1000M) 12.10PM
Several unraced horses have shown talent in trials, including favourite IT’S A DEEL (4). The undefeated MILDRED (9) has firmed in the betting. Lindsay Park’s BELLA NIPOTINA (10) had no luck at her debut.
THE TRAINER: GRAHAME BEGG
MILDRED (No.9): “On what she’s done so far I can’t see any reason why she can’t win again.”
BET: BELLA NIPOTINA each-way (Confidence 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hiflager $10-$6.50 ($500 @ $9.50, $500 @ $8, $1,000 @ $6.50); It’s A Deel $6-$4 ($400 e/w @ $4.20/$1.90); Marnix $8-$6
RACE 2: HANDICAP (955M) 12.40PM
James Cummings has declared ESPERANCE (4) will make a winning return, and he’s been backed into odds-on. FINE DANE (5) is racing well, has fitness on his side, and is Patrick Moloney’s only ride.
THE TRAINER: JOHN MOLONEY
FINE DANE (No.5): “He’s just come through in his coat, and I think he should go on and win this.”
BET: FINE DANE the win (Confidence 8/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Esperance $2.40-$2.10 ($500 @ $2.40, $800 @ $2.10)
Deductions. Pravro 3c Win 4c Place
RACE 3: FILLIES CLASSIC (1600M) 1.15PM
FASCINO (1) was brave last start when she finished second in the Edward Manifold Stakes. The two Sydney-trained fillies who fought out their last start at Kembla, ASIAGO (5) and NUDGE (7), look quality fillies.
THE TRAINER: GRAHAME BEGG
BEAUTY BOLT (No.6): “She was luckless last start as she was held up for a good portion of the straight. She’s against a similar field, and this is a good opportunity for her.”
BET: FASCINO each-way (Confidence 7.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
RACE 4: CROCKETT STAKES (1200M) 1.50PM
VILLAMI (3) raced wide, yet still looked like winning this track and distance last start, but was run down by top fillies Loving Gaby and Exhilarates. She’s up against several talented fillies, including BROADWAYANDFOURTH (11).
THE TRAINER: MITCH FREEDMAN
BROADWAYANDFOURTH (No.11): “We’ll find out whether she’s up to this grade, but she’s got the class and ability.”
BET: VILLAMI the win (Confidence 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Villami $3-$3.40-$2.25 ($720 @ $3.40, $700 @ $2.90, $650 @ $2.60); Don’ttelltheboss $9-$7
RACE 5: AUSTRALIA STAKES (1200M) 2.25PM
CONDO’S EXPRESS (1) put together impressive back-to-back wins here in August. He has Oliver on. CIELO D’ORO (7) recorded fast closing sectionals when third at Bendigo last start. Blinkers go on, and the extra distance suits.
THE TRAINER: JOHN SADLER
SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (No.3): “He’ll lead for a long way. The question is whether he can run out 1200m, which is a doubt.”
BET: CIELO D’ORO each-way (Confidence 6/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Condo’s Express $3.80-$4; Heyington Station $10-$9.50
RACE 6: DRUMMOND GOLF VASE (2040M) 3PM
BATTENBURG (1) finished third at his last start in the Spring Champion Stakes behind two top-class horses in Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio at Randwick. Blinkers go on SOUL PATCH (5) after he flew home in the Caulfield Guineas.
THE TRAINER: MITCH FREEDMAN
MOONLIGHT MAID (No.9): “Fillies have a good record in this, and this is a nice progression to the Oaks.”
BET: BATTENBURG the win (Confidence 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Battenburg $3.50-$2.60 ($600 @ $3.20, $780 @ $3.10, $900 @ $2.70)
RACE 7: MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500M) 3.35PM
MR QUICKIE (6) was unlucky in the Caulfield Cup. HUMIDOR (7) didn’t make the Cox Plate either. DOWNDRAFT (4) is in form.
THE TRAINER: DAVID HAYES
ALFARRIS (No.9): “We couldn’t improve him on fitness, so we thought a little gear change might be good. I think he’s more of a Queen Elizabeth horse.”
VENTURA STORM (No.2): “Defending champion who is getting closer to his best.”
BET: MR QUICKIE the win (Confidence 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Downdraft $6.50-$5 ($800 @ $6.50); Humidor $5-$4.60
RACE 8: SCHWEPPES CRYSTAL MILE (1600M) 4.10PM
SIKANDARABAD (10) hasn’t had much luck in recent starts, but has been finishing strongly. He will be suited by a good speed. MADISON COUNTY (13) is in the same boat.
THE TRAINER: DAVID HAYES
SIKANDARABAD (No.10): “He was really good (in the Toorak). All his runs — even his run behind Homesman at the Valley — was full of merit, and it looks a good race for him.”
BET: SIKANDARABAD each-way (Confidence 8/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sikandarabad $8-$6 ($800 @ $6.50, $500 @ $6); Maddison County $11-$9.50 ($200 @ $11)
RACE 9: COX PLATE (2040M) 4.455PM
LYS GRACIEUX (9) is proven in one of racing’s toughest precincts. MAGIC WAND (10) has form against some of Europe’s best.
THE TRAINER: DAVID HAYES
CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (No.11): “His work on Wednesday was outstanding. The Caulfield Stakes is usually the best guide for the Cox Plate.”
HARLEM (No.4): “He has a good record in these Group 1 WFA races at 2000m.
BET: LYS GRACIEUX the win (Confidence 8.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Avilius $8-$11; Lys Gracieux $3.50-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $3.80, $500 e/w @ $3.80/$1.70, $500 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.60 TWICE, $500 @ $3.50); Magic Wand $21-$13; Mystic Journey $7-$6.50 ($1,500 @$7, $500 @ $7 MULTIPLE TIMES, $500 @ $6.50 MULTIPLE TIMES, $700 @ $6, $500 @ $6); Castelvecchio $15-$7.50 ($555 @ $10, $400 e/w @ $9/$3).
RACE 10: POWERFLO SOLUTIONS STAKES (1600M) 5.45PM
AMANGIRI (5) fought on well when she tried to lead throughout for third in a Group 3 1600m race at Randwick, strong form for this. Another Sydney mare GIRL TUESDAY (2) has a touch of class.
THE TRAINER: GRAHAME BEGG
VANUATU (No.11): “We’ve set her for a race at Flemington, so she needs to get her ratings up, and this is a good opportunity for her to do that.”
BET: AMANGIRI the win (Confidence 8.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Music Bay $6.50-$5.50; Amangiri $5.50-$3.40 ($500 @ $5.50, $1,200 @ $4.60)