Nick Quinn: Expert tips and betting analysis for the Group 1 meetings at The Valley

Punting guru Nick Quinn was spot on with Mer De Glace last week and he is sticking with the Japanese raiders in the Cox Plate, while there is a standout pick in the Manikato Stakes.

Humidor has been well backed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Picture: Getty Images

• Cox Plate guide: Star mare eyes Winx’s crown

• Prince Of Arran wins Geelong Cup

TAB form expert Nick Quinn casts his eye over the feature races at The Valley on Friday night and Saturday.

QUINNY’S BEST PLAYS

BEST BET: Bivouac (The Valley, Friday night, R7, No.9)

VALUE BET: Kluger (The Valley, Saturday, R9, No.3)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Close To Me (Randwick, Saturday, R1, No.5)

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Japanese raiders Kluger and Lys Gracieux will spearhead the international attack in the Cox Plate. Picture: AAP

THE VALLEY (Friday night)

RACE 7: MANIKATO STAKES (1200m)

Plenty of punters are stepping into Golden Rose winner Bivouac in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes. He firmed from $1.90 into $1.80 after drawing barrier one, and is now $1.85. Some people are slightly concerned about the gate, but he should be forward enough that it isn’t an overwhelming issue. From a price perspective, he should be slightly better as the race approaches so if you want to back him, then keep your powder dry.

The star three year-old has won three of his four runs this campaign and his only defeat was on an unsuitable heavy track. Bivouac was a $15 chance in early markets for the Manikato and there should plenty of punters on good terms with themselves. The main danger is Loving Gabby. She was costly when running second to California Zimbol last start but there was still plenty to like about the run and she was impressive when winning first-up. At near double-figure odds, she is worth saving on.

SUGGESTED BET: BIVOUAC the win.

Bivouac will be hard to beat in the Manikato Stakes. Picture: AAP

THE VALLEY (Saturday)

RACE 7: MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500m)

Most years Mr Quickie and Humidor would be dominant favourite’s on the back of strong formlines and connections of both runners are entitled to feel unlucky that their runner is not in the Cox Plate. The positive for punters is that it now provides a good opportunity to trim up the first leg of the quaddie.

Mr Quickie resumed from a spell with a monster run in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes before a lacklustre run in the Turnbull and a luckless 11th in the Caulfield Cup. Mr Quickie opened $2.90 and has been pushed out to $3, I expect him to start around the $3.50 mark so if you fancy him, stay patient.

The early money has come for Humidor, who nearly caused the shock of the millennium in the Cox Plate two years ago when he almost beat Winx. He was a $5 chance when markets opened and is into $4.40. I would not be surprised if he started favourite.

SUGGESTED BET: HUMIDOR the win.

Humidor has been well backed to win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9: COX PLATE (2040m)
Punters continue to back Japanese star Lys Gracieux, who was $5 a fortnight ago. She was $3.40 prior to the barrier draw and is now $3.70 after coming up with wide alley. I expect her to start a clear favourite, but she should be a better price on race day than she is now.

Avilius is a fascinating runner at double-figure odds. He has been costly this campaign after being beaten as a short-priced favourite in three of his four starts. The market appears to have overreacted and he is worth saving on at good odds.

Tassie champ Mystic Journey has also divided opinions. The long-time Cox Plate favourite now appears out of favour with punters after tasting defeat at her past two outings. Again, I think she is worth forgiving and one of many winning chances. The other runner who I expect will run well is Kluger. He had a good autumn campaign in Australia, including running fourth to Brutal in the Doncaster and second to Winx in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

SUGGESTED BET: KLUGER each-way.

TAB BETTING ANALYSIS

COX PLATE

$3.80 Lys Gracieux ($3.50 after barrier draw)

$6.50 Mystic Journey ($7 after barrier draw)

$7.50 Castelvecchio ($15 after barrier draw)

$11 Avilius ($8 after barrier draw)

$13 Magic Wand ($21 after barrier draw), Cape Of Good Hope ($9 after barrier draw)

$16 Te Akau Shark ($15 after barrier draw; as much as $18)

$17 Kluger ($15 after barrier draw), Danceteria ($15 after barrier draw), Verry Elleegant ($15 after barrier draw)

$18 Kings Will Dream ($21 after barrier draw; as short as $17)

$19 Homesman ($17 after barrier draw; as much as $21)

$26+ Others

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

MANIKATO STAKES

$1.85 Bivouac ($1.80 after barrier draw)

$6.50 The Bostonian ($7 after barrier draw)

$8.50 Trope ($8 after barrier draw)

$9 Loving Gaby ($8 after barrier draw)

$15 Anaheed ($13 after barrier draw)

$17 Faatinah ($17 after barrier draw; as short as $15)

$19 Vital Silver ($17 after barrier draw; as much as $21)

$23+ Others

MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP

$3.10 Mr Quickie (opened $2.90)

$4.60 Humidor (opened $5; as short as $4.40)

$5 Downdraft (opened $6.50)

$9 Hunting Horn (opened $9; as short as $8.50)

$11 Sully (opened $9.50), Attention Run (opened $11; as short as $10)

$19+ Others

SCHWEPPES MILE

$4 Dreamforce (opened $4; as short as $3.90)

$5.50 Gailo Chop (opened $5.50)

$6 Sikandarabad (opened $8)

$10 Best Of Days (opened $9), Madison County (opened $11)

$11 Cliff’s Edge (opened $9.50)

$12 Pacodali (opened $10), Rox The Castle (opened $11)

$14 Dream Castle (opened $15; as short as $13)

$15 Chief Ironside (opened $13; as much as $16)

$23+ Others

DRUMMOND GOLF VASE

$3.20 Battenburg (opened $3.50)

$3.80 Moonlight Maid (opened $3.90; as much as $4)

$5 Soul Patch (opened $4.60)

$6 Independent Road (opened $5.50)

$7 Serious Liaison (opened $6.50)

$14 Craftmanship (opened $15)

$31+ Others