Saturday preview: Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down the big races at Doomben, Rosehill and Caulfield
THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby gazes into his crystal ball in search of winners across three states at Doomben, Rosehill and Caulfield on Saturday.
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THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby gazes into his crystal ball in search of winners across three states at Doomben, Rosehill and Caulfield on Saturday.
THE FACTORS
DOOMBEN
Track: Soft (5)
Weather: Sunny, 22C
ROSEHILL
Track: Heavy (9)
Weather: Clearing shower, 19C
CAULFIELD
Track: Good (4)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 16C
SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: DOOMBEN
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS
Doomben Race 6: Coke Zero Plate
1350m, C3 SW, 3.22pm
In the run: Dandy One was effective leading last week, so expect similar tactics again. Monsieur Gustave ran quick time from the front at Caloundra and will use his inside gate.
Take note: Monsieur Gustave ran figures way inside the average and clear best of day when bolting in first up at Caloundra. Can he repeat in tougher grade? Did win at only other second up attempt.
Did you know: Man Of His Word notched his most impressive win when belting Dandy One at this track/distance last October. Just needs a cart into the race. Trainer Bruce Hill is coming off an Eagle Farm double last week.
Early money: O’Reilly Cyrus has been $9 to $6.50 taking on the older horses. The fav Gustave has been solid throughout.
Nathan’s tip: Man Of His Word $6.50
Nathan’s danger: Monsieur Gustave $2.90
Rosehill Race 7: Run To The Rose
1200m, 3YO SW+P, 3.50pm
In the Run: Will be some pressure upfront with the speed drawn to the inside out to Star Turn in gate 5.
Take note: Star Turn lodged a first up speed rating that is superior to anything his rivals did as two-year-olds. He’s clearly come back a better horse and sets a high benchmark for his rivals to match if he repeats.
Did you know: John O’Shea has four runners resuming. Impending is the most fancied in the market off two good recent trials. This does look a big step off his Gold Coast defeat though, where he was rated unlucky. Prefer Telperion based on deeds to date.
Early money: Mediterranean was stiff on the wet track last time and form stacked up through Thronum last week. Sure to have a lot of admirers on another heavy track here.
Nathan’s tip: Star Turn $3.80
Nathan’s danger: Mediterranean $6
Doomben, Race 7: Sprite Plate
F & M C6 SW, 4.02pm
In the run: There’s a host of potential leaders here, including Burleigh Bullet, Red Diamond and Khaleesi who will have to be used up from out wide.
Take note: Queen Tara should be suited by the good tempo. Gets back and runs on strongly. A touch stiff against the boys last time, so back to her own sex she will take holding out.
Did you know: Pepperano is 489 days between wins, but has only had five runs in that time. First up run showed she was right back on track. At her most recent 2nd up tilt, she was third at Group 2 level. Liam Birchley might have her ready to live up to the two-year-old potential now.
Early money: Little action to speak of. Western Belle is solid at $8 to improve on the run of seconds.
Nathan’s tip: Pepperano $4.80
Nathan’s danger: Queen Tara $4.80
Caulfield Race 7: Memsie Stakes
1400m, SWFA G1, 4.10pm
In the run: Charmed Harmony loves to run along in 1400m races, so it should be genuinely run. Lord Of The Sky handy and Mahuta probably box seats.
Take note: Darren Weir holds all the aces here. Mahuta and Palentino look the dangers to the favourite Black Heart Bart. Mahuta doesn’t look like he’s improved this prep, but will be rock hard fit now. Palentino proved superior in the autumn and fresh run was good.
Did you know: Black Heart Bart has had five runs for Weir. Based on the Ratings Bureau’s WPR ratings, the last four of those runs are superior to what anything in this field has produced in the past 12 months (at races 2000m or shorter). Anywhere near right and he wins.
Early money: Black Heart Bart is in from $2.90. Sprinkling for Sofia Rosa ($19-$15).
Nathan’s tip: Black Heart Bart $2.60
Nathan’s danger: Palentino $7.50
BRAD DAVIDSON & SHAYNE O’CASS PREVIEW ROSEHILL
SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: ROSEHILL
SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: CAULFIELD
INSIDE MAIL: BIG BETS, QUADDIES FOR ROSEHILL