The shock amount Cairns renters could be paying by Christmas

Tenants in the Cairns region could be paying up to $175 more in rent by the end of the year, with potential rent increases of up to 39 per cent in some suburbs. See what you could be paying?

Tenants in the Cairns region could be paying up to $175 more in rent by the end of the year, with potential rent increases of up to 39 per cent in some suburbs.

Unit renters in the Port Douglas area – which includes suburbs such as Mowbray, Oak Beach, Wangetti and Craiglie – can expect to pay the biggest increase at $175 by the end of the year, an increase of 32 per cent.

But it is renters in some of the city’s more affordable suburbs that could take the biggest hit, according to analysis by SuburbTrends.

Tenants in Port Douglas could soon be paying an extra $175 a week based on current projections. Photo: Destination Port Douglas

Renters in the statistical region of Gordonvale-Trinity – which includes the likes of Goldsborough, Gordonvale, East Trinity and Mount Peter – are tipped to feel the biggest sting, with unit rents forecast to rise 39 per cent, or about $141 extra a week.

All up, unit renters can expect to pay at least $100 more a week across 20 Cairns suburb groups, from Bentley Park and Manunda, to Earlville-Bayview Heights, Cairns City, Trinity Beach-Smithfield and White Rock.

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Aerial view of Trinity Beach, on the northern beaches of Cairns. Picture: Brendan Radke

SuburbTrends founder Kent Lardner said the meteoric predicted rise in unit rents was being driven by affordability.

“People are being squeezed out of houses, so they’re going into units and that’s driving rents higher,” Mr Lardner said.

SuburbTrends founder Kent Lardner.

Median house rents across Cairns are tipped to increase between 5 per cent (Kamerunga, Barron, Barron Gorge, Redlynch, Caravonica) and 25 per cent (Babinda SA2 area).

Five Cairns locales could be $700-plus a week suburbs, including Port Douglas, Whitfield-Edge Hill, Brismead, Freshwater-Stratford, and Trinity Beach-Smithfield.

Recent record flooding in Cairns has not helped with supply issues. Picture: Brendan Radke

Mr Lardner said the biggest issue facing Queensland’s rental market was the imbalance between housing supply and demand.

“It’s been traditionally such an affordable place, and that’s part of the driver for a lot of people coming in (to Queensland),” he said.

“There’s way too many people for the amount of properties we’re supplying, and it’s a double whammy in Queensland because people are still steaming over the border.

“You’re getting to the point where you can no longer argue that it’s affordable.

“There are pockets where we’re still seeing that like Cairns and the Wide Bay region, but it’s only a matter of time before this contagion creeps up on these locations.

“How bad would it be it be to be under 25 right now?”

It comes as the state government this week released a rental reform package including financial support, a portable bond scheme, modifications to rental properties, a Code of Conduct for the sector, and a ban on rental bidding.

But Ray White AKG Group CEO Avi Khan said the legislation would only encourage more people to sell their investment properties in Queensland, further limiting the supply of rental housing.

“This legislation is making sure investors have less confidence in the Queensland housing market,” Mr Khan said.

“We need to work with investors, developers, and local councils to get out of this crisis. We cannot alienate one group overanother.

“I’m seeing a very high appraisal request rate from landlords, which shows in six months’ time, these are the people who willsell their investment properties.”

Principal of Ray White AKG, Avi Khan

The Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) says the reforms do not address the rental market pressures primarily causedby a lack of new social housing and private rental supply.

“With this round of reform, they’re creating an administrative nightmare with portable bonds, and potentially opening the door to tenants making modifications to rental properties without the consent of the owner,” REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said.

“We already have strict legislation surrounding rent bidding in Queensland, which requires a listing price be advertised andprevents real estate professionals from asking for offers above and beyond that.

“If you fix supply, history shows that affordability stays in check because people aren’t compelled to offer more to increase their chances of success among a big pool of applicants. A focus on supply would render most of these reforms redundant.”

The latest figures from PropTrack reveal Queensland’s available rental pool has shrunk by almost two thirds in just four years, with vacancy rates in Brisbane declining even further in January.

The latest PropTrack Market Insight Report shows the share of rental properties vacant and available in both Brisbane andregional Queensland is 58 per cent lower now than it was at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Despite this, Queensland’s population increased by more than 138,000 people in 2022/23 alone, with record overseas migration accounting for 84,000 of those new residents.

Several regions recorded vacancy rates even lower than Brisbane during the last quarter, including the Sunshine Coast (0.58 per cent), Cairns (0.63 per cent), Wide Bay (0.79 per cent), Darling Downs-Maranoa (0.82 per cent), and on the Gold Coast (0.85 per cent).

***Suburbtrends used machine learning, an application of artificial intelligence, to forecast expected rental prices. Predictions were then calculated for a 12 month growth average to reduce fluctuation. However, outliers still existed, so there was a maximum cap of 50 per cent increases on rents. Founder and property pundit Kent Lardner said any region with a forecast 30 per cent increase in weekly rent was a suburb with “an immense amount of upward pressure on prices”.

Originally published as The shock amount Cairns renters could be paying by Christmas