YouGov poll reveals who Queenslanders want to replace Annastacia Palaszczuk

Exclusive polling reveals what Labor’s chances would be at the next state election if Annastacia Palaszczuk was no longer leader of the party.

One in five Labor-leaning Queensland voters are more likely to vote for the government if Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is replaced as the party’s leader a new YouGov poll has revealed.

Overall more than half of all voters still don’t know who they want to replace Annastacia Palaszczuk if she was to step down or be removed as Labor leader — but among those who’ve made up their mind the three-way race has significantly narrowed.

And voters’ top pick against the options of Deputy Premier Steven Miles, Treasurer Cameron Dick, and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman depends on where they live in the state and which of the two major parties they currently prefer.

But in a worrying sign of the ongoing power vacuum within the government, none of the three frontrunners received more than 10 per cent support

A whopping 52 per cent of respondents to The Courier-Mail’s new YouGov poll of 1013 Queenslanders said they didn’t know or had no opinion on who would be a better leader to replace Ms Palaszczuk.

The poll, conducted between October 4 and 10, comes two months after Ms Palaszczuk’s controversial decision to jet off on her second European jaunt for the year sparked serious speculation of a leadership coup.

Mr Miles, the most senior member of the Left faction, has been widely tipped as the most likely replacement.

MORE POLL RESULTS

• Revealed: What Queenslanders really think about Palaszczuk
• Analysis: Poll will bruise Labor, but there is still hope

But Queenslanders only prefer him slightly more to the two other top leadership contenders, with 10 per cent of voters saying he would be better than the rest to replace Ms Palaszczuk.

Ms Fentiman, the most powerful Left faction woman, and Mr Dick who hails from Ms Palaszczuk’s Right faction, both polled an equal 8 per cent.

The other 22 per cent of voters said they’d prefer someone else other than the options provided.

In July 2022 when The Courier-Mail’s YouGov poll asked Queenslanders a similar question 11 per cent picked Mr Miles, while Mr Dick picked up 7 per cent support and Ms Fentiman just 3 per cent.

In the 2022 poll Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath’s name was also provided as an option, and she polled 5 per cent.

The battle between Shannon Fentiman, Steven Miles and Cameron Dick to replace Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader has never been closer.

It means Ms Fentiman’s position as a potential leadership contender has starkly increased since mid-2022, likely spurred by a snap cabinet reshuffle in May which put her in charge of Health and increased her statewide travel responsibilities.

And Ms Fentiman was the only pick among the three who had a stable share of voters who preferred her in Brisbane (9 per cent), southeast Queensland (9 per cent) and the rest of the state (8 per cent).

While Mr Miles was the most popular in Brisbane (11 per cent) an equal 9 per cent of voters picked him in the rest of southeast Queensland and the regions.

Mr Dick was the least popular of the three outside Brisbane, with just 6 per cent of Queenslanders voting him their number one in the regions and the rest of southeast Queensland.

The most popular option among Labor-leaning voters who had a view was Mr Miles (17 per cent) followed by Mr Dick (14 per cent).

But Ms Fentiman was the most popular among LNP-leaning voters with a view with nearly one in 10 (9 per cent) saying she was the best pick over Palaszczuk.

Although ultimately only 15 per cent of Queenslanders polled said they were more likely to vote for Labor if Ms Palaszczuk was replaced, while 61 per cent said it would make no difference.

In a sign Ms Palaszczuk’s popularity within her own party is waning, 21 per cent of Labor-leaning voters said they would be more likely to support the party if she was replaced.

Among LNP-leaning voters 11 per cent said it was more likely they would vote for Labor if Ms Palaszczuk was replaced, while 9 per cent said it was less likely they would do so.

All three leadership frontrunners categorically stated Ms Palaszczuk had their full support during the leadership rumblings at the end of August and into early September when she was in Italy on holiday.

But at the time Mr Dick also laid out a 576-word unprompted blueprint for how he says the government can win the next election while Ms Fentiman and Mr Dick appeared side-by-side in a press conference in the first days of Ms Palaszczuk being away.