Why millions of Americans hold their nose and vote for Trump
Australians might wonder how this race is even close. But for voters who think they haven’t got much left to hang on to, it’s easy to feel you’ve got nothing to lose.
One byproduct of the rise of politics-as-a-spectator-sport in the United States has been the simultaneous increase in the number of “celebrity” election predictors.
The widely read 538 blog, which aggregates hundreds of polls as well as economic and demographic data to predict election results, regularly runs simulations to predict a winner of the presidential election college. In its last run of 1000 simulations, it was about as close as it could be. Donald Trump won 51 simulations out of 100, and Kamala Harris won 49.
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Lidija Ivanovski is a partner at Brookline Advisory and former chief of staff to Richard Marles.
