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How long can the US economy defy expectations?

How long can the US economy defy expectations?

Donald Trump has ripped up the policy rulebook in the first half, but the world’s biggest economy has proved surprisingly resilient. Pundits even saw a first-quarter contraction as transitory.

When Donald Trump took office six months ago, economic forecasters held their breath.

The president had promised a radical political and economic agenda for his second term: a broad crackdown on migration that threatened labour supply; a dramatic downsizing of the federal government; and a new tariff regime with negative implications for growth and inflation.

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Original URL: https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/how-long-can-the-us-economy-defy-expectations-20250728-p5midr