Does the ‘madman theory’ of leadership actually work?

From Machiavelli to Nixon, there have been leaders who believed irrational behaviour was a good way to get what you want. Trump is a man of few moves, and this is one of them.

Donald Trump seems to believe that being thought unpredictable and a bit crazy is an asset rather than a liability. AP

Daniel W. Drezner

Jan 29, 2025 – 5.00am

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When Donald Trump first ran for US president in 2016, he sounded mad an awful lot of the time – in both senses of the word. Trump had no problem displaying anger on the campaign trail. In a 2016 Republican primary debate, he leaned into this emotion, saying he would “gladly accept the mantle of anger” because he believed the country was a “mess” and run by incompetent people.

Trump also embraced the notion that he was a different kind of mad. In statement after statement, he stressed that he would be a different type of president because he was willing to be a little bit crazy, a little bit unpredictable.

Foreign Policy