Incitec Pivot chief executive Jeanne Johns could scarcely have picked a more appropriate book for 2020: Radical Uncertainty, by economist John Kay and former Bank of England governor Mervyn King.

“It highlighted how fraught planning is, which 2020 certainly proved,” she said. “But even in more normal times, the inputs to planning are often poor assumptions based on the past or errors on forecasting changes. The use of a broader range of potential outcomes is key for preparedness and decision-making in an unknowable future.”