Late last year, Bloomberg reported that 100 per cent of surveyed economists expected the US economy to enter recession in early 2023, and strategists warned of calamitous markets. That didn’t happen – while GDP growth is just over 2 per cent a year, the US stock market rose 20 per cent to end-June this year.

Now there is another growing consensus that the US economy is set for a recession next year, with the usual talk of America sneezing and the rest of the world wrestling with swine flu.