In 2015, the iron ore price was at decade lows below $US50 per tonne, high-cost producers were hitting the wall as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto increased their output and a hysterical Andrew Forrest was demanding Canberra stop them. Cue “a chorus of voices” to deride the majors’ unity forecasts that Chinese steel production would reach 1 billion tonnes between 2025 and 2030.

“Anyone with any nous would query it as a very nice round, convenient number,” said BHP’s former president in China, Clinton Dines. “It’s a lazy number, which has taken on a life of its own.”