David Abbey’s Labor vote should be rusted on. The firefighter and union member, 53, has never voted any other way and did so early in a byelection that is shaping as a crucial test for a suddenly on-the-nose Victorian government and, by extension, its federal counterpart.

But Mr Abbey is also a property investor paying extra land taxes as part of the Allan government’s nascent efforts to get state debt under control, and has become disenchanted with Labor as services he considers basic in his neighbourhood have eroded or been neglected.