A population boom forecast in the Allan government’s budget last week is contradicted by Reserve Bank and federal Treasury predictions, putting at risk a central plank of Labor’s strategy to pull the state out of its debt crisis.

Treasurer Jaclyn Symes is counting on Victoria’s population to rise by 1.7 per cent per a year, the economy to expand 2.7 per cent and spending growth to slow to 2.3 per cent to meet the government’s targets to reduce net debt as a share of the economy.