If the federal election seems like a done deal right now, remember that objects in the rear vision mirror may be closer than they appear.

Current published national polling has the closest margin between Labor and the Coalition at 51-49 to the ALP on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis. This represents a swing to Labor of nearly 1.5 points, allowing the ALP to pick up the four seats it needs to reach 76 and form majority government, and then some. Anything above a 51-49 TPP result in Labor’s favour sees the ALP form government comfortably, and it is not outside the realm of possibility for Labor to sweep to more than a 10-seat win.