It is now clear that Australia’s response to the coronavirus outbreak was a massive overreaction. Keeping the surge of infections below the capacity of our health system could have been achieved by moderate social distancing and personal disinfection. The forced closure of businesses and offices and movement restrictions were unnecessary.

The pattern of infection would have been different, no doubt, and more cases would probably have occurred by now. But like jumping out of a tall building, you cannot claim things are going well on the way down. The endpoint – herd immunity from either infection or vaccination – can be deferred but not avoided. Overall, no additional lives will have been saved by the lockdown.