When the national cabinet was presented with “theoretical” epidemiological modelling on the coronavirus in early March, the nation’s most senior politicians were terrified by scenarios showing that intensive care units at hospitals could be overwhelmed and tens of thousands of Australians could die.

Australia, they were advised by epidemiologists at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, was on an early virus trajectory similar to the widespread outbreaks devastating parts of China, Europe and the United States.