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Geoff Raby

The Russians are not coming to Indonesia

At no time did any of our national leaders consider how preposterous was the suggestion that Indonesia might let Russia base long-range bombers in West Papua.

In Jakarta this week for his first overseas visit after the election, the prime minister was displaying his elevated obfuscation skills. Carefully honed during the election campaign, he ducked questions from journalists about whether the Russians had asked Indonesia to base long-range bombers in West Papua. By avoiding a direct response, the Russia “threat” stalks the prime minister.

“The Russians are coming” is a panicked refrain heard throughout much of Australia’s history since European settlement. Former prime minister Malcolm Fraser was particularly exercised by Russia’s presence in the Indian Ocean during his time in office. At times in the 1960s and ’70s, it was overshadowed by the Indonesian Threat. Since the end of the Cold War, it has been replaced by the China Threat.

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Geoff Raby was Australia’s ambassador to China, 2007-2011. His book Great Game On: the contest for Central Asia and Global Supremacy will be published in November by Melbourne University Press.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-russians-are-not-coming-to-indonesia-20250515-p5lzgy