US President Donald Trump may have put the cart before the horse by claiming a “historic trade win” following a fragile ceasefire in America’s tit-for-tat economic war with China. The temporary pause came out of negotiations in Geneva between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, culminating in a 90-day agreement to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points while broader trade terms are brokered.

On one hand, it’s a positive step towards a more lasting compromise by steering the trade talks in a more conciliatory and respectful direction. But in reality, it marks the end of the opening skirmish of the new cold war between the world’s two superpowers – a conflict that has extended beyond trade to encompass the global technology arms race, security, and global influence.