Once again, US economic and market forecasters are having a difficult time. Worse, while 2023 surprised on the upside, the deviation from projections in 2024 could be much less favourable.

Recall the start of 2023. Forecasters had overwhelmingly anticipated a difficult year for economic growth, and that this would translate into even more losses for the diversified-portfolio investors who had already suffered one of the worst years on record in 2022. In a now famous October 2022 headline, Bloomberg warned: “Forecast for US recession within year hits 100 per cent in blow to Biden”.