In the run-up to 2023, the outlook for the global economy appeared bleak. Analysts predicted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent surge in energy prices would trigger a significant economic downturn in Europe. Bloomberg Economics proclaimed there was a 100 per cent probability that the United States would suffer a recession. Few believed that most developing economies could withstand the combination of rising energy prices, soaring interest rates and a downturn in developed countries.

Had forecasters anticipated the war between Israel and Hamas and its potential for regional escalation, the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, and political turbulence in some Western countries, their pessimism would have been even more pronounced.

Project Syndicate