The volatility that has been the hallmark of the first 100-odd days of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House is the antithesis of the certainty investors crave. The geopolitical risk created by Trump’s America First protectionist agenda is challenging the long-held belief that the United States provides uniquely favourable conditions for investment compared to other countries. The burning question for investors is whether the next 1354 days until Trump exits the Oval Office will end the US exceptionalism that has made America the unrivalled destination for global investment.

Trump’s inauguration in January prompted a surge in global markets, buoyed by the president’s tax-cutting and deregulation policies, including giving free rein to the artificial intelligence boom. The President’s April 2 “liberation day” announcement of reciprocal tariffs on America’s trade partners sent markets spiralling down. The sell-off was only halted after a US bond trader revolt and growing fears of recession forced Trump to pause the tariffs for 90 days and backtrack on threats to sack Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.