There’s nothing comforting about the global economic outlook
We should do our utmost to moderate the pull of the reassuring convergence narrative. Failure to do so would mean a premature relaxation of efforts to overcome remaining short-term challenges.
The first half of last year was a time of striking economic and financial dispersion, within countries and across them. Some of this dispersion was reversed last month, so there is a growing tendency to forecast convergence in the period ahead, and the favourable outcomes that would come with that, from better growth and inflation results to rewarding investment performance.
Yet, doing so now would be premature and unwise.
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Financial Times
Mohamed A. El-Erian, is president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge and a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
