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JPMorgan economists bring forward RBA rate cut forecasts
JP Morgan economists have brought forward their expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 0.75 per cent to October, from their previous expectation of a cut in February, citing the by the Reserve Bank of Australia's growing concerns about global economic troubles.
They also now expect another cut in February, compared to a previous forecast for a cut in May.
Sally Auld, Ben Jarman and Tom Kennedy said the Reserve Bank's minutes of its September 3 meeting removed a key phrase that no longer mentioned the need for an accumulation of bad data to influence a further rate cut.
In August, the central bank noted that "Members would consider a further easing of monetary policy if the accumulation of additional evidence suggested this was needed.”
JP Morgan said that phrase “accumulation of additional evidence” suggested that it would take the central bank some time to reach the point at which it would consider rate cuts.
"In September, the minutes no longer contained this phrase, implying a lower hurdle to cuts," the JP Morgan economists said. "The minutes reveal that global developments are now clearly playing more of a role in the RBA’s reaction function,"
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