Policymaking is difficult and it’s fair to say the government took the best decisions it could with respect to COVID-19 earlier this year. But it’s also important to look back on the outcomes if we are to better understand the usefulness of models and to improve policy for the future.

Back in March an expert epidemiologist, on a best-case scenario (low reproduction rate with extreme isolation), had NSW hospitalisations peaking at more than 14,000 this year. Another had Australian deaths at 29,000.