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Why Trump tariffs have upped the risk of a private credit GFC

It remains to be seen what risk triggers Trump 2.0 will bring and what contagion might flow within and between the regulated and NBFI sectors.

In finance there is a truism: risk can be shifted between holders, but it can’t be destroyed by doing so.

Low rates and QE after 2008 and the monetisation of COVID-19 created a favourable environment for markets. But Basel III and other regulations had placed leverage constraints on banks.

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Adrian Blundell-Wignall writes on the world economy and is a former director of the OECD. He is currently in Paris.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-trump-tariffs-have-upped-the-risk-of-a-private-credit-gfc-20250408-p5lq0l