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Three ‘grown-up’ questions investors must ask themselves

It feels like a plethora of risks emerged during a wild week on world markets. One $24 trillion investor says it’s time for asset allocators to start asking hard questions. 

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It’s hard to escape the sense that something shifted in global markets this week. Consider the following list:

  • Kamala Harris injecting new energy into the White House race.
  • China’s increasingly desperate policymakers delivering a surprise rate cut.
  • A string of profit warnings from global giants including Nestle, Nissan and luxury icon LVMH.
  • Warnings from Australian regulators that the private credit boom is too opaque.
  • Growing noise about the need to cut rates to support a slowing US economy.
  • Sharp falls in commodity prices, particularly copper, the long-standing economic barometer.
  • A sudden surge in the yen, which has hit carry trade bets across credit and equity markets.
  • Signs the yield curve may be about to disinvert, which almost always happens just before a recession. Former Federal Reserve official Bill Dudley also called on the central bank to cut interest rates as soon as next week due to signs the US economy is cracking.
  • A jump in the VIX volatility index.
  • And, perhaps most worryingly, a sharp reversal in the seemingly bulletproof belief that artificial intelligence could keep the long bull market running.
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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/the-grown-up-questions-investors-must-ask-themselves-20240726-p5jwr0