December 2024
How ‘the mother of all bubbles’ will pop
All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near. It is time to bet against “American exceptionalism”.
The US market is a bubble ready to pop
Dominating the minds of global investors, America is over-owned, overvalued and overhyped to a degree never seen before.
September 2024
Why it’s dangerous to be super rich in China
The number of billionaires has fallen 35 per cent in China, and corporate leaders may be devaluing their wealth, amid fears the state is targeting the rich.
July 2024
Why Europe is becoming poorer than America
Oversized governments in Britain and on the Continent have crushed productivity growth, allowing US incomes to grow twice as fast.
June 2024
Why markets like to see new political faces
Whether a government is weak or strong, left or right, doesn’t seem to matter much for economies, but new leaders are associated with higher growth and returns.
It’s not the economy, stupid. Voters blame Biden for inequality
It’s unfair to blame the US president alone for imbalances that have been widening for decades, but nor will selling the good news harder make any difference.
April 2024
America’s ‘supercharged’ economy can’t last
One overlooked reason for US resilience is a tonne of stimulus still coursing through the economy.
March 2024
Bitcoin fanatics are rightly feeling vindicated
The most popular cryptocurrency is starting to look like more than a passing fad.
February 2024
AI mania tells a tale of two bull markets
While the US rise in share prices is all about tech, India’s boom is more broad-based.
January 2024
Why political leaders are so unpopular now
Politicians need to recognise that the connection between headline economic data and political support has broken. Voters are reacting to long-term decline, and are looking for fresh fixes.
November 2023
China’s rise as an economic superpower is reversing
China’s real long-term potential growth rate — the sum of new workers entering the labour force and output per worker — is now more like 2.5 per cent.
October 2023
Why markets are relatively calm in the geopolitical storm
Investors as a group don’t act like individuals — their collective mind recognises risk as a historical constant.
September 2023
America’s mini economic miracle may be fleeting
Biden-era spending has turbocharged growth — but the resulting debts may bring pain. When the stimulus and other temporary boosts wear off, the American economy could settle into a long, slow grind.
China’s property bubble will cause drama, one way or another
Property bubbles fuelled by surging debts tend to end in sharp economic downturns, so a crisis scenario is more probable than a big bounceback.
July 2023
The problem with tech giants riding the AI wave
The fact that the behemoths are dominating another wave of digital innovation points to deep dysfunction. No contribution they make can compensate for declining competition.
America’s new exceptionalism is debt-financed
The US has started to look exceptional in a bad way. Once typical, it is now the biggest deficit spender in the developed world.
June 2023
From Louis XIV to Arnault: why Europe’s luxury success is not all good
If it’s not clear how much smartphones boost productivity growth, it is safe to say French perfume and Italian handbags contribute even less.
May 2023
Wall Street’s rosy talk on China’s economy a charade
Analysts’ forecasts are now even more optimistic about China’s economy than Beijing’s unreachable growth target, leading to major losses for investors.
An economic miracle in India’s tech state
India is best understood as many countries, not one, too complex to be dominated by a single party or leader. The state of Karnataka shows that capitalism and democracy still have a future.
April 2023
What strong gold says about the weak $US
Too confident in the indomitable dollar, the US saw sanctions as a cost-free way to fight Russia without risking troops. But it is paying the price in lost currency allegiances, with gold left as the main safe haven.