This Month
Can Australia dodge the trade war bullet?
As the world waits for Donald Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs, Australia looks a good chance to fare better than most.
December 2024
Michele Bullock could be the Maradona of Australian central banking
The Reserve Bank governor is weaving through the inflation challenge with a hawkish comment here, a dovish quip there and a steady interest rate.
September 2024
Fix low productivity or get used to high inflation for longer
The economy is in an unusual bind. The only way out is to reverse Australia’s dismal productivity performance.
April 2024
Will Future Made in Australia push the RBA off the narrow path?
If the budget does deliver policy changes that add to demand, inflation will probably keep falling slowly and stay too high for the central bank’s inflation target.
February 2024
Bullock’s lack of forward guidance is good for flexibility
Any indication about the direction of interest rates which might be perceived as a promise can limit the central bank’s ability to be nimble.
November 2023
Does the Reserve Bank’s ‘narrow pathway’ to a soft landing exist?
The central bank aspires to bring inflation down while maintaining close to full employment. But this is not how things have worked out in the past.
August 2023
Australia might have a recession in name only
Even if a technical recession were to arrive in the second half of 2023, it would be debatable whether it was an actual recession, especially if the unemployment rate rose only modestly.
May 2023
RBA’s inflation taming could end with fairytale soft landing
With the pickup in wages growth just right from the RBA’s perspective, it won’t take much of rise in unemployment to achieve the disinflation that is needed.
September 2022
Handle RBA inflation target with care
While an independent review of the central bank is appropriate, it should avoid breaking what has been a successful inflation-targeting framework over the longer term.
April 2022
If the pandemic doesn’t shock us into reform, what will?
Australia was a small debt country. Now it’s a middle-debt country. There is nothing in last week’s budget to stop it from becoming a big-debt country.
October 2021
Wide-angle review of the RBA is needed
Economic management in the post-pandemic world will need to co-ordinate all the monetary, fiscal and prudential tools together.
March 2021
Jobless targets at cross purposes
Philip Lowe wants unemployment closer to 4 per cent. But if Josh Frydenberg starts budget repair now the rate has dipped under 6 per cent the fiscal headwind will make the RBA’s inflation mandate harder to achieve.
October 2020
Fiscal policy is king as Australia's macro model changes
With fiscal policy in the driving seat, we could be in for a much bumpier ride than before.
July 2020
An independent fiscal authority would accelerate the recovery
With monetary policy at the RBA's self-imposed limits, new depoliticised policy tools are needed to manage the post-pandemic economic cycle.
April 2020
The RBA's long-term worry is stability
Loan repayment holidays have removed the immediate pressure. But what if borrowers are still in poor shape in six months?
January 2020
Why the RBA may have to take emergency action
The key navigational tools used by the RBA have sucked interest rates into the vortex of ‘lower for longer' – and made it harder to lift the economy out of the doldrums in 2020, writes HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham.