KFC SuperCoach experts rate the most-popular trades ahead of Round 6
Stuck on a Matt Rowell replacement? Can’t decide whether Elliot Yeo is worth it? Torn on which rookies to buy and sell after teams were named? To help, our KFC SuperCoach experts give their verdict on your Round 6 trade moves.
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KFC SuperCoaches have honed in on two point of difference picks to replace injured Gold Coast young gun Matthew Rowell.
Essendon’s Dylan Shiel (2.3 per cent of teams) and St Kilda’s Jack Steele (1.2 per cent) have emerged as two of the most popular replacements for Rowell ahead of Round 6.
TRADE GUIDE: KEY KFC SUPERCOACH INTEL FOR ROUND 6
Shiel has averaged 124 in four games this season and amassed 156 against Collingwood last round to put himself on the KFC SuperCoach radar.
Steele, meanwhile, has largely gone under the radar despite averaging 117.6.
Many coaches will have noticed the Saints take on Fremantle and Adelaide in the next two matches as well.
And at the other end of the equation, an influx of new rookies, who will be on the bubble next week, has KFC SuperCoaches questioning their final moves.
KFC SuperCoach experts Tim Michell, Al Paton and The Phantom rate the most popular trades of Round 6 as coaches scramble to replace Rowell in their teams.
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TRADED IN
Jake Aarts $123,900 FWD Avg: 76
Al Paton: BUY: Loved how he played on debut and six years in the VFL have him ready for an extended stint in the seniors. Only question is if you get him now or wait for Izak Rankine, who will be on the bubble next week.
Tim Michell: PASS. Wait for Izak Rankine or Sean Simpson next week. You should know my attitude to loading up on rookies by now in the shorter season.
The Phantom: BUY. The downgrade option if you need the money this week after an impressive 76-point debut. Responsibility may only increase now, too. But just keep in mind the influx of new rookies, who will be on the bubble next week.
Dan Batten: BUY. But not a must-have if you have cash in the bank. There is a stack of rookies on the bubble next week but Aarts has points on the board and rock-solid job security.
Elliot Yeo $478,900 MID Avg: 83.6
AP: BUY. Picking him up after one good game is risky but price is too good to pass up for a guy who averaged 107 the past two years.
TM: BUY — this week or next. His break even is 98 and that gives KFC SuperCoaches another chance to see if Yeo’s return to form was a one-off or not. His upcoming run of WA games adds to his appeal.
The Phantom: CONSIDER. At $478k, there’s plenty of value here. But just keep in mind Yeo has recorded three more clangers than any other player in the competition. And there is less time to make up for your mistakes this year.
DB: PASS. Another big score and you can still snap him up for a bargain. He is the competition’s clanger king and his scoring has reflected that so far.
Jordan Ridley $460,000 DEF Avg: 112.5
AP: BUY. Definitely not too late to pick up the bargain defender of the season.
TM: BUY. You should have brought him last week when he was $410k — that includes me! $460,000 is still a great price and he’ll be more than $500,000 after this weekend.
The Phantom: BUY. It’s not too late to get the breakout Bomber, who has hit the target with 32 of his 36 disposals in the past two matches.
DB: BUY. Still affordable and hasn’t fallen below 90 in six games including the pre-season.
Dylan Shiel $566,400 MID Avg: 124
AP: PASS. Producing some massive scores but consistency is an issue. Couldn’t argue if you want him, though.
TM: UNSURE. If this was going to pay off, 2020 would be the year. Shiel is in serious form with two scores above 150 in four games. The issue is his two other scores were less than 100 and that’s not ideal for a premium.
The Phantom: PASS. Huge last week, as he was in Round 1. But there’s better – and more inconsistent – options for mine.
DB: PASS. I have a vendetta against Shiel after owning him all through 2016 but there are far better options at his price point.
Lachie Whitfield $441,200 FWD-MID Avg: 78.4
AP: BUY. Kicking myself for hanging on to him while his price dropped $150k. Could average 110 from here.
TM: BUY — but with a warning. I’m not completely convinced he’s the bargain most people think. He’s not kicking the footy anywhere near as well as he did in previous years and only posting 80-95 despite games of 25+ disposals. If it was Whitfield or Yeo I’d go with the Eagle.
The Phantom: BUY. Career-low kicking efficiency is hurting his scoring but there is so much value at $441k, given he’s still a likely top-six forward from here.
DB: BUY. An absolute steal at this price which is only set to rise.
Nick Haynes $541,100 DEF Avg: 114
AP: BUY. Has been in my trade plans multiple times but somehow never made it into my team. Pricey now but looks a lock as a top-six defender.
TM: BUY. So glad I got on him last week. I’ve missed the boat on Jy Simpkin and Jordan Ridley but at least managed to get Haynes before he scored 148 against Hawthorn. A spot in the top-six defenders beckons.
The Phantom: BUY. Haynes has taken two more intercept marks than any other player and is the second-ranked KFC SuperCoach defender after five rounds. A great point-of-difference.
DB: BUY. It is an exorbitant sum but Nick Haynes’ intercepting will ensure he scores consistently.
Jack Steele $558,400 MID Avg: 117.6
AP: BUY. Love how this guy plays. Only reason to pass on him would be the price – I’ve got Yeo ahead of him on value.
TM: BUY. I’m seriously considering him with games against Fremantle and Adelaide in the next two rounds. He’s averaging 20 disposals, four marks and six tackles a game.
The Phantom: BUY. Three scores of 128 or more this year and Fremantle and Adelaide in the next two weeks. Hello.
DB: BUY. Similar to Shiel, I was a frustrated Steele owner last season but his role appears to have changed and his tackling and contested ball winning makes him a promising option.
Travis Boak $628,700 MID Avg: 123.8
AP: PASS. Getting harder to find reasons to justify this call. He’s expensive? But not high on my radar.
TM: PASS. Boak has been in brilliant form but why pay more than $600,000 when there’s so many good value options this round?
The Phantom: PASS. Only Lachie Neale has scored more points in the midfield but you’d be buying at top price with Giant Matt de Boer circling.
DB: PASS. Too expensive and has Matt de Boer this weekend — 70 incoming.
Laitham Vandermeer $225,000 FWD-MID Avg: 63.3
AP: PASS. If you need a forward rookie get Aarts or Rankine, who are much cheaper.
TM: PASS. Don’t get sucked in by one big score. Before his 99 Vandermeer didn’t reach 60 once in three matches.
The Phantom: PASS. The young Bulldog has the equal-lowest breakeven in the competition after his 99-point score in Round 5 but there’s far more value in Aarts and Harrison Jones.
DB: PASS. You’ve missed the boat.
Jy Simpkin $544,700 FWD-MID Avg: 118.2
AP: BUY. Paying closer to his true value now which is annoying but has shown consistent scoring power and Roos injuries are likely to make him even more prominent.
TM: BUY. Another player I’m considering to replace Matt Rowell. Unfortunately I’d be jumping on the bandwagon a month after most other coaches, but better late than never … right?
The Phantom: PASS. A gun – and one who I will eventually get – but I still prefer Christian Petracca for $35k less.
DB: BUY. With Cunnington and Higgins set to miss this weekend, Jy Simpkin will be the No.1 man in the guts.
TRADED OUT
Matthew Rowell $470,700 MID Avg: 102.4 BE: 154
AP: SELL. What a ride. Only reason not to trade him would be if you have other plans and prefer to do it next week.
TM: SELL. But if it’s a matter of trading Jack Viney or Rowell this week, I’d leave Rowell on your midfield bench. At least he won’t drop in value as Viney seems destined to.
The Phantom: SELL. It’s a sad day but given his extraordinary first four games, there are a number of premium replacements in reach. An Elliot Yeo trade will cost you $8k but is he the best choice?
DB: TRADE. Will be sidelined for up to three months after going in for surgery and can be upgraded to a top-line star with just $100,000.
Connor Budarick $233,500 FWD-MID Avg: 52.2 BE: 61
AP: SELL. Time to go. Happy to take the $126k profit.
TM: HOLD. A DPP rookie who is going to play most weeks could be valuable if the injury carnage of the past few rounds continues. A 30-40 at M8 or F6 is better than no score.
The Phantom: SELL. His breakeven of 61 is now higher than his average of 52 so it’s time to trade. Jake Aarts appeals but if you’re not in a position to downgrade this week, wait for Izak Rankine.
DB: HOLD. Warm bodies could prove crucial in the coming weeks and his dual position status is handy. One good score will turn his price trajectory around.
Jarrod Brander $235,200 DEF-FWD Avg: 60.3 BE: 13
AP: SELL. Use the cash to upgrade to Ridley or Jake Lloyd if you can afford him at $585k
TM: HOLD. even if it’s just for trade flexibility. Seems like he’s in the Eagles’ best 22 and I expect West Coast will surge up the ladder when it returns to WA next week. Hopefully Shannon Hurn hits him with a few lace-out passes.
The Phantom: HOLD. He’ll be back and dual-positition flexbility may prove vital. But if you can get to Ridley or another premium, consider it.
DB: HOLD. Can be a useful emergency loophole up forward or in defence this week and could return from injury in Round 7. If he doesn’t get up for next week, there’s a million rookies to trade him to.
John Noble $266,000 DEF Avg: 62.8 BE: 19
AP: SELL. Almost identical situation to Brander. Use the cash to upgrade to Ridley or Jake Lloyd if you can afford him at $585k
TM: HOLD - He’ll play again soon and has a low break even. He was one of Collingwood’s best in a scratch match on Friday and teams will rotate heavily as they prepare for a glut of games.
The Phantom: SELL. Ridley is your man.
DB: CONSIDER. Noble was named in the Pies two best players in their scratch match on Friday afternoon and should enter calculations next week. But if he helps you reach a premium this week, by all means trade.
Tyler Brown $232,300 MID Avg: 52.2 BE: 61
AP: HOLD. If you need the money or midfield cover do it now but he’ll be the perfect downgrade for Sam Simpson next week.
TM: TRADE: Hasn’t scored enough for 2-3 weeks to justify holding onto. Even if he comes back soon he’ll struggle to get his break even of 61.
The Phantom: HOLD/TRADE. Brown won’t play this week so he won’t lose money. If you can trade him up to a premium - and need the points-hit - do it. Otherwise, turn him into Sam Simpson ahead of Round 7.
DB: TRADE. Dropped and not even named emergency – time to turn him into Aarts or a fallen premium.
Jack Viney $493,500 MID Avg: 105.8 BE: 136
AP: HOLD. Jack’s scores are a massive worry but I want to get rookies off the field then figure out what to do with him. If he can average around 90 his price won’t drop too much.
TM: TRADE. One of the first players I hit trade on this week. You didn’t get him to be a season keeper, but to be a cash cow. He’s losing value fast.
The Phantom: DEPENDS. If you jumped on ahead of Round 2 for the cash grab, you should’ve traded him last week. But we’ve had so many other problems. Volatile rookie scores might be worth addressing first and that means riding it out with Viney.
DB: HOLD. I’m in the camp of waiting a week on Viney to see if he can produce against the Suns. Who knows, he could pull a ton out of nowhere.
Sam Jacobs $406,300 RUC Avg: 95 BE: 85
AP: SELL. He figures on this list every week so people clearly aren’t taking my advice! Harder to find someone to swap him to now but he’s not even playing so anyone is an improvement.
TM: SELL. Why do you still have Jacobs? Shane Mumford is doing a serviceable job for GWS and Sauce isn’t scoring points playing in scratch matches. Andrew Phillips in for Jacobs is a move 85 coaches have made and I don’t mind that.
The Phantom: TRADE. He’s not in the Giants best side at the moment so he shouldn’t still be in yours.
DB: TRADE. Why didn’t you do this a fortnight ago? Shane Mumford looks settled meaning Sauce is likely to remain on the outer.
Jeremy Howe $536,700 DEF Avg: 120.5 BE: 112
AP: SELL. Gone for the season, worth a lot of money. Use it to get some points.
TM: SELL. Obviously you had other issues to deal with this week but you can almost pick any defender in a straight swap. Grab Nick Haynes, Jake Lloyd or Brayden Maynard.
The Phantom: TRADE. I’m guessing you may have traded Nat Fyfe if you held Howe after last week’s injury. Don’t mention that out loud. Ridley is your man.
DB: TRADE. $530,000 sitting on your bench is far from ideal.
Marlion Pickett $201,500 MID Avg: 60.3 BE: 30
AP: HOLD. He’s back in the side and still has money to make. I’d be trading Budarick, Brown, Starcevich and Co before Marlion.
TM: HOLD. If he’s not back this week, I’ll sing the Richmond theme song on next week’s KFC SuperCoaches Box podcast.
The Phantom: HOLD. He’s back and he could play a big role.
DB: HOLD. Performed well in his last two scratch matches and Richmond’s injury crisis means he’ll play this week.
MORE SUPERCOACH NEWS:
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Kick-in points help Collingwood’s Brayden Maynard, Sydney’s Jake Lloyd boost KFC SuperCoach scoring
AFL Round 6 early mail: Injury concerns and players set to return at your club
The Phantom and Tim Michell discuss the importance of Max Gawn in KFC SuperCoach
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach experts rate the most-popular trades ahead of Round 6