KFC SuperCoach Round 6 trade guide: Best bargains, Matt Rowell replacements
He was the hottest player in KFC SuperCoach but now 125,000 players have a tough choice to make. Fortunately, there are plenty of options. Will you take a bolter or a bargain? Here are this week’s top targets.
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SuperCoaches who held on to Fremantle captain Nat Fyfe have been rewarded after he made a stunning recovery from a hamstring injury.
Fyfe has only missed one week with the injury but has been named to take on St Kilda on Saturday.
Could coaches who traded him out get him back this week? That would be a huge call, especially with so many other great buys available for Round 6.
More than 125,000 coaches need a replacement for gun midfielder Matt Rowell, with options ranging from bargain Eagle Elliot Yeo to Richmond rookie Jake Aarts.
LATE MAIL: WHO TO PICK IN ROOKIE BONANZA
Rowell’s teammate Izak Rankine will also be a popular pick next week — and he won’t be the only one. There are potentially 10 players on the bubble after a host of first-gamers were named on Thursday night.
Harley Bennell’s ($123,900 MID) price will jump after Round 6 after he was chosen to play his second game as a Demon against his former side Gold Coast.
That’s not to forget another high Magpies draftee Isaac Quaynor ($261K DEF), who will play his first game for the year as he auditions for Jeremy Howe’s spot at half-back.
STATS SPECIAL: WHY MAYNARD IS REAL DEAL IN KFC SUPERCOACH
Potential #SuperCoach bubble boys in Round 7:
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) July 9, 2020
- Izak Rankine
- Will Kelly
- Atu Bosenavulagu
- Josh Morris
- Will Day
- Andrew McPherson
- Riley Collier-Dawkins
- Dylan Stephens
- Chad Warner
BARGAINS GALORE HEADLINED BY YEO, WHITFIELD
The end of financial year sales have arrived in KFC SuperCoach.
As a result of the 17-round AFL season and two-week price cycle in KFC SuperCoach, some of the game’s top premiums are available for less than $500,000 after five rounds.
Who could have predicted Lachie Whitfield, slated as a certainty to be a top-two forward this year, would be available for $441,200?
Or that Elliot Yeo, who has averaged 107 in the past two seasons, would drop by more than $100,000 to $478,900?
Whitfield, Yeo and Stephen Coniglio headline the premiums available for significantly less than their starting price as KFC SuperCoaches look to offload underperforming rookies.
If you loaded your war chest last round after injuries to Jeremy Howe, Nat Fyfe, Tom Stewart and Sam Naismith, there’s potential to turn players such as Connor Budarick, Tyler Brown and Brandon Starcevich into two of this trio.
The low rookie scoring in Round 5 indicated the importance of upgrading quickly and the number of fallen premiums ahead of next round provides that opportunity.
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TOP TARGETS
Dustin Martin $505,800 FWD-MID Avg: 94.8 BE: 120
Martin’s disposal numbers have dropped by six a game from 26 to 20 this year, although he appears to have been playing through some discomfort since returning from a rib injury. The Tigers are going to have no choice but to unleash him after being beset by injuries in Round 5 — including losing midfielders Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin. Martin is the 36th-ranked forward for points after five rounds, but don’t let that deter you. If you think he’ll be a top-six forward from this point, that should be enough to jump on this week or ahead of Round 7.
When will he bottom out? He’ll drop about $10,000 if he scores 85 this round and likely reach his lowest price ahead of Round 7.
Elliot Yeo $478,900 MID Avg: 83.6 BE: 98
Yeo stepped up in the absence of injured West Coast skipper Luke Shuey, scoring a season-high 121 from 21 disposals and five tackles against Sydney. The Eagles’ looming return to Western Australia only serves to add to Yeo’s appeal. He’s averaged 105 from 28 games at Optus Stadium since the start of 2018. The tackle machine represents an easy sideways swap from Jack Viney or Matthew Rowell.
When will he bottom out? This could be as cheap as he comes. He takes on Adelaide this week and the likelihood is Ben Keays will try to blanket either Tim Kelly or Andrew Gaff. If you have to hold off a week, he won’t be more than $500,000 ahead of Round 7.
Hugh Greenwood $504,300 FWD-MID Avg: 104 BE: 100
Greenwood’s importance to the Gold Coast midfield is only going to become more pronounced with Matthew Rowell sidelined by a shoulder injury. In Rowell’s absence against Geelong, the former Crow had a season-high 21 possessions, 11 tackles and six clearances, scoring 132 KFC SuperCoach points. That was the third time this season he’s posted 116 or better and Greenwood has only scored less than 95 once. He’s also only in 10.5 per cent of teams.
When will he bottom out? Greenwood has had a pretty steady price in the past three weeks, ranging from $494,800 to his current quote. Unless he scores big again this round you’ll be able to grab him around this price in a few weeks.
Rory Laird $495,100 DEF Avg: 92 BE: 95
Laird’s ceiling isn’t as high as some of this year’s leading defenders but he’s traditionally been one of the most consistent KFC SuperCoach performers in his role. His scores this year indicate he is heavily reliant on possessions to score points. His two hundreds this season have come when he had 25 disposals against Gold Coast and Fremantle and you would want to have confidence he can maintain those numbers before picking him.
When will he bottom out? Next week. His average suggests he’ll be about $490,000 ahead of Round 7.
Stephen Coniglio $493,000 MID Avg: 92.8 BE: 135
His scoring so far doesn’t demand much attention, but Coniglio won’t play as a defensive forward again as he did against Collingwood. His style actually suits shortened quarters as he’s able to have an impact in the middle or attack. He’s got three tons in five matches which is on par with some premium midfielders worth considerably more. Pounce next week when that score against the Magpies is out of his cycle. He’s still averaging 19.4 disposals and five clearances.
When will he bottom out? In another week or two. The 49 from when he was used as a small forward against Collingwood is still in his price cycle and Coniglio has not scored more than 114 this year. He’ll almost certainly get to about $475,000.
Toby Greene $465,000 FWD Avg: 89.3 BE: 68
The ultimate risk-reward pick in KFC SuperCoach. Greene has three scores of 96-108 in four matches this year, although his other total was 47. His scoring has suffered from frees against, conceding six in the first four rounds including two against Geelong when he recorded 108 points from four goals and 16 disposals. There’s a fair bit of risk attached with this selection, but 2020 might just be the year it comes off. From rounds 17-22 last year he had three scores of 115+.
When will he bottom out? Greene shouldn’t have any problem reaching his break even this week. It’s probably now or never if you want to take the punt.
Jordan Ridley $460,000 DEF Avg: 112.5 BE: 11
Did anyone else spend the weekend cursing themselves for overlooking him? I certainly did. All logic suggested his scoring might suffer at a rain-soaked MCG as Ridley had relied heavily on disposal efficiency. Yet the young Bomber scored 59 points in the second quarter alone and went at 83.3 per cent from 18 disposals. He’s still a good buy at $460,000 but boy it would have been nice to jump on before his $49,900 price rise after posting 122 against Collingwood.
When will he bottom out? He’s going up, not down. He’ll likely reach about $550,000 before his break even and average meet.
Lachie Whitfield $441,200 DEF Avg: 78.4 BE: 78
If you jumped off Whitfield a few weeks ago after he was concussed and scored eight points, this is the week to get him back in. He’s dropped by $152,500 in the past three weeks and the smart call was to trade him after Round 3 and redeploy those funds elsewhere. Whitfield only has one hundred for the year, in Round 1 against Geelong (109), but he’s too cheap to ignore at this price. Remember, this is a player most thought was a certainty to finish as a top-two forward this year.
When will he bottom out? This is it. Unless Whitfield has a shocker against Port Adelaide, his price will start heading north after Round 6.
Andrew Brayshaw $434,100 FWD-MID Avg: 91.6 BE: 30
The Brayshaw breakout might be happening after all. The No. 2 draft pick was the beneficiary of Nat Fyfe’s absence, leading Fremantle to its first win under Justin Longmuir on Sunday. Brayshaw played a season-high 86 per cent game time (average 71 per cent to Round 4) and had 23 disposals and eight marks. His price rose by more than $30,000 as a result but he’s still an attractive option — especially if Fyfe is ruled out again.
When will he bottom out? Like Ridley, his price is heading toward $500,000 after a starring role in the Dockers’ win over the Crows.
Darcy Fort $330,000 FWD Avg: 87.3 BE: 24
Did anyone else pick Fort for Round 1 and then trade him out when he was dropped for Rhys Stanley? Those who jumped on Geelong’s back-up ruckman after he replaced an injured Stanley in Round 4 have benefited from scores of 61 and 107 in the past two weeks. Fort has risen by $65,200 but is still at a price where he could be acquired via a rookie upgrade without burning significant bank. If you’re stuck with Jarrod Brander or Connor Budarick in attack, consider him — unless Stanley is due back soon.
When will he bottom out? On his current trajectory, Fort is projected to reach $400,000 after Round 8. He should make money until about Round 9-10 if he retains his spot as Geelong ruckman. That’ll be a big question mark once Stanley returns.
Jack Steven $306,700 FWD-MID Avg: 50.3 BE: 47
Yep, Jack Steven. How can you completely rule a line through a four-time best and fairest who scored 95 in 63 per cent game time against Gold Coast? His first two games for the Cats — scores of 20 and 36 — have caused Steven to fall by $55,000 from his starting price. The safe play would be to have another look this round and see whether the ex-Saint can back up his best game yet for Geelong. Steven had 17 possessions and kicked a goal against the Suns.
When will he bottom out? This is almost certainly as cheap as Steven comes. But a price rise of $10,000-$15,000 shouldn’t put you off if he backs up his 95 against Brisbane Lions.
Jake Aarts $123,900 FWD Avg: 76 BE: -27
The best rookie option of Round 6. Mature-age debutant Aarts suddenly has solid job security after a spate of injuries hit Richmond on Sunday. Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis were hurt in the Tigers’ win over Melbourne, while Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards have opted not to travel to a hub. Aarts impressed with 15 disposals and three marks against the Demons and is projected to be about $170,000 after his next match.
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SuperCoach Investor: Why Richmond’s Jake Aarts is a priority trade for Round 6
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KFC SuperCoach rage trades: Who to trade in and out ahead of Round 6
PLAYERS TO MONITOR
Bailey Smith $459,600 FWD-MID Avg: 85.8 BE: 171
Smith was concussed in the opening term of Western Bulldogs’ win over North Melbourne, scoring three points and losing $42,400. He’s projected to drop another $38,900 if he scores 84 in Round 6. The young Bulldog scored 93-126 in the opening four rounds and with MID-FWD swing will be a bargain if he gets close to $400,000.
Tom Stewart $498,000 DEF Avg: 80.3 BE: 187
Stewart suffered a broken collarbone against Melbourne in Round 4, scoring 18 and dropping $40,000. That came after he opened the campaign with scores of 100, 119 and 84 to put himself on the radar of many KFC SuperCoaches. The Cats have been coy about a timeline for Stewart’s return, but once he’s back playing he’s projected to lose about $80,000 in two weeks. Tom Stewart for close to $400,000? Yes please.
Jade Gresham $414,800 FWD-MID Avg: 72.4 BE: 107
One for the point of difference hunters. Gresham has become a regular in St Kilda’s midfield mix and has only lost value due to scores of 27 (Round 1, knee injury) and 43 (Round 4, eye) due to being hurt in two matches. His other scores of 120, 81 and 91 indicate he has scoring potential and could be a bargain option for F5 or F6.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Jack Viney $493,500 MID Avg: 105.8 BE: 136
Matthew Rowell $470,700 MID Avg: 102.5 BE: 154
Bachar Houli $528,400 DEF Avg: 94.3 BE: 151
Connor Budarick $233,500 FWD-MID Avg: 52.2 BE: 61
Tyler Brown $232,300 MID Avg: 52.2 BE: 61
John Noble $266,000 DEF Avg: 62.8 BE: 19
Isaac Heeney $495,100 FWD-MID Avg: 95.6 BE: 145
Shannon Hurn $499,900 DEF Avg: 93.6 BE: 137
Connor Rozee $402,800 FWD Avg: 81.2 BE: 128
Brodie Smith $440,300 DEF Avg: 76.6 BE: 78
GOING DOWN?
Bailey Smith $459,600 FWD-MID Avg: 85.8 BE: 171 Price change: -$42,400
Lachie Neale $763,300 MID Avg: 154.2 BE: 167 Price change -$500
Jack Macrae $589,800 MID Avg: 102.2 BE: 161 Price change: -$16,800
Nat Fyfe $670,500 MID Avg: 122.5 BE: 153 Price change: N/A
Andrew Gaff $597,200 MID Avg: 113.6 BE: 152 Price change: -$21,200
Patrick Cripps $593,600 MID Avg: 109.6 BE: 148 Price change: -$15,100
Isaac Heeney $495,100 FWD-MID Avg: 95.6 BE: 145 Price change: -$13,200
James Sicily $515,300 DEF Avg: 90.4 BE: 142 Price change: -$8100
Shannon Hurn $499,900 DEF Avg: 93.6 BE: 137 Price change: -$28,700
Jack Viney $493,500 MID Avg: 105.8 BE: 136 Price change: -$30,100
Stephen Coniglio $493,000 MID Avg: 92.8 BE: 135 Price change: -$28,600
KEY BREAK EVENS
Premiums ($500,000 or more)
Tim English $522,300 RUC Avg: 104.2 BE: 34 Projected price rise: +$34,500
Jarrod Berry $539,700 MID Avg: 105.8 BE: 43 Projected price rise: +$26,900
Rowan Marshall $526,900 RUC Avg: 97.6 BE: 61 Projected price rise: +$11,500
Sam Docherty $577,600 DEF Avg: 121.2 BE: 62 Projected price rise: +$25,500
Nick Haynes $541,100 DEF Avg: 114 BE: 66 Projected price rise: +$25,700
Patrick Dangerfield $556,600 MID Avg: 100.6 BE: 80 Projected price rise: +$13,200
Mid-pricers ($250,000-$500,000)
Hayden Young $262,700 DEF Avg: 64.8 BE: -24 Projected price rise: +$39,800
Curtis Taylor $269,400 FWD Avg: 71.6 BE: 0 Projected price rise: +$27,400
Jordan Ridley $460,000 DEF Avg: 112.5 BE: 11 Projected price rise: +$38,200
John Noble $266,000 DEF Avg: 62.8 BE: 19 Projected price rise: +$19,900
Darcy Fort $330,000 FWD Avg: 87.3 BE: 24 Projected price rise: +$22,000
Ben Long $342,800 FWD Avg: 77.4 BE: 28 Projected price rise: +$29,300
Andrew Brayshaw $434,100 FWD-MID Avg: 91.6 BE: 30 Projected price rise: +$28,900
Tom Doedee $351,700 DEF Avg: 79 BE: 40 Projected price rise: +$18,100
Jack Steven $306,700 FWD-MID Avg: 50.3 Projected price rise: +$3800
Brett Bewley $354,700 FWD Avg: 77.8 BE: 57 Projected price rise: +$9200
Marc Pittonet $435,200 RUC Avg: 112 BE: 76 Projected price rise: +$12,600
Lachie Whitfield $441,200 DEF Avg: 78.4 BE: 78 Projected price fall: -$1500
Rookies (Under $250,000)
Laitham Vandermeer $225,000 FWD-MID Avg: 63.3 BE: -27 Projected price rise: +$40,300
Jake Aarts $123,900 FWD Avg: 76 BE: -27 Projected price rise: +$45,900
Tom Green $238,500 MID Avg: 68.7 BE: -26 Projected price rise: +$42,600
Kyron Hayden $197,900 MID Avg: 49.8 BE: -24 Projected price rise: +$31,200
Harley Bennell $123,900 MID Avg: 59 BE: -10 Projected price rise: +$34,300
Tom Williamson $215,100 MID Avg: 62 BE: -8 Projected price rise: +$27,200
Caleb Serong $200,000 MID Avg: 62 BE: -8 Projected price rise: +$31,200
Thomas Berry $177,500 FWD Avg: 56.3 BE: -8 Projected price rise: +$28,500
Harrison Jones $123,900 MID Avg: 54 BE: -5 Projected price rise: +$26,200
Stephen Hill $214,000 DEF-FWD Avg: 64 BE: -4 Projected price rise: +$23,500
Mitchell Hibberd $114,400 MID Avg: 39 BE: 7 Projected price rise: +$14,500
Max King $242,800 FWD Avg: 59.8 BE: 12 Projected price rise: +$21,400
Trent Rivers $166,000 DEF-MID Avg: 47 BE: 17 Projected price rise: +$13,200
Brayden Ham $229,400 FWD-MID Avg: 56.5 BE: 20 Projected price rise: +$12,800
Sam Sturt $195,300 FWD Avg: 61.7 BE: 29 Projected price rise: +$15,000
BIGGEST OWNERSHIP CHANGES*
Jake Aarts +6.2 per cent
Elliot Yeo +2.7 per cent
Jordan Ridley +2.7 per cent
Dylan Shiel +2.5 per cent
Lachie Whitfield +2.2 per cent
Jack Steele +2.0 per cent
Nick Haynes +1.9 per cent
Travis Boak +1.4 per cent
Andrew Brayshaw +1.1 per cent
Matthew Rowell -24.3 per cent
Connor Budarick -3.1 per cent
Jarrod Brander -2.8 per cent
John Noble -2.0 per cent
Tyler Brown -1.6 per cent
Brandon Starcevich -1.1 per cent
Sam Jacobs -1.0 per cent
Jack Viney -0.8 per cent
Jeremy Howe -0.8 per cent
*Ownership changes current as of 5pm Thursday
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Round 6 trade guide: Best bargains, Matt Rowell replacements