KFC SuperCoach: Expert verdict on best bargain picks for 17-round season
Mid-pricers are suddenly in vogue as the AFL plans for a 17-round season amid the coronavirus crisis. We've rated 70 of the top boom-or-bust picks in KFC SuperCoach.
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Mid-pricers have become a necessary evil in KFC SuperCoach.
For all the potential pitfalls involved with starting a player in the $250,000-$450,000 bracket, the coronavirus crisis and 17-round season has created an unprecedented need to scour the fallen premiums and potential breakout stars.
Last year provided evidence of just how tough picking the right mid-pricer can be.
For every James Worpel ($395,700, average 97) and Zac Williams ($407,800, average 101.6) there were 10 examples of players who failed to make the leap to premium status.
How do you pick the perfect mid-pricer? A change in role, or club, is arguably the greatest indicator of a potential rise to KFC SuperCoach prominence.
That’s why players such as Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw ($382,800, FWD-MID) and Geelong recruit Jack Steven ($361,700, FWD-MID) feature in more than 10 per cent of teams.
Mining the mid-pricers for premiums returning from long-term injuries, such as Sam Docherty ($436,100, DEF) and Devon Smith ($335,800, FWD-MID) is another proven strategy.
Cash generation from rookies is going to be more difficult than ever this year with the league forced to cut its season from 22 rounds to 17.
This will bring mid-pricers into the plans of many coaches as the quickest leap to a fallen premium.
Whatever path you take, tread carefully.
Choosing the right mid-pricers can be the difference between KFC SuperCoach immortality and complete failure.
In a year where rookies are as scarce as toilet paper on supermarket shelves, mid-pricers have never been more important.
Tim Michell, Dan Batten and Al Paton provide their verdicts on more than 60 mid-price options for your KFC SuperCoach team.
DEFENDERS
Callum Mills (Sydney) $444,100 DEF 2019 avg: 81.8 Marsh Series scores: 105
Mills has threatened to break out every year since his 2016 debut with the hope of more midfield minutes to boost his scores. But it’s time we accept he’s likely to be a permanent halfback. He scored 105 in Sydney’s second pre-season game but there’s too many players back there — Jake Lloyd, Dane Rampe, Jordan Dawson — competing for points to do that regularly.
Al Paton’s verdict: Won’t be sucking me in this year. Good player, but not for SuperCoach.
Kade Simpson (Carlton) $442,600 DEF 2019 avg: 81.5 Marsh Series scores: 85, 65
The Carlton veteran was a SuperCoach staple in previous years, averaging 92.7 or more every season from 2009-2018. But his average tumbled from 105 in 2018 to 81.5 last year and it’s hard to make a strong case for Simpson when there’s so many other value KFC SuperCoach defenders. Pick his teammate Sam Docherty instead.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He’ll go down in the KFC SuperCoach defensive hall of fame but don’t start Simpson this year.
Sam Docherty (Carlton) $436,100 DEF 2019 avg: N/A. Marsh Series scores: 69, 105
The topscoring SuperCoach defender of 2016-17 is available as a mid-pricer – that’s an offer too good to pass up. The fact he hasn’t played in two years means we should temper our expectations a bit but should only get better as the year progresses.
Al Paton’s verdict: Unlikely to average 115 but still a good shot to be a top-six defender. Lock him in.
Sydney Stack (Richmond) $435,100 DEF 2019 avg: 80.1 Marsh Series scores: 79, 45
Stack was one of the SuperCoach rookies of 2019 after being signed during the supplemental period by the Tigers. He made an instant impression with 108 on debut and posted four other tons to finish with an average of 80.1. More importantly, he generated $345,400 for those who took the punt at a basement price. Stack only scored less than 63 twice which is huge for a first-year player.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He’s an intriguing option. Stack was a midfielder last season when he entered SuperCoach as a $102k rookie but has been reassigned as a defender. On talent alone he should be in Richmond’s best 22, but there’s enough questions about his job security not to start him. The Tigers won last year’s VFL premiership and only lost Brandon Ellis from their senior team.
Michael Hurley (Essendon) $432,900 DEF 2019 avg: 79.7 Marsh Series scores: 43, 116
The Bomber was a premium SuperCoach scorer in 2017 when he averaged 103 points a game, and his 91 average the next year wasn’t too bad. Last year his scoring nosedived as his previous high disposal numbers dried up. Can he bounce back? A 116 in Essendon’s final Marsh Series game puts him on the radar.
Al Paton’s verdict: Scored 43 in the Bombers first pre-season hitout. Injuries to defenders headlined by Patrick Ambrose don’t help him. Pass.
Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) $431,900 DEF 2019 avg: 79.5 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 134
The Magpies high-flyer averaged 91.6-94.1 in three consecutive seasons before dropping to 79.5 last year. There appeared to be a direct correlation between Darcy Moore’s presence in Collingwood’s back six and Howe’s totals tumbling. He registered five scores of 118 or more in 17 games in 2018 but didn’t once reach that mark last season — his top score of four tons was 115.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Howe was a solid servant from 2016-18 but Darcy Moore’s emergence has largely diminished his KFC SuperCoach relevance. It was hard not to be impressed by his 25-possession, 11-mark pre-season outing against St Kilda though.
Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) $413,900 DEF-FWD 2019 avg: 76.2 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 102
One of the best KFC SuperCoach picks of 2018 has turned into a very reliable performer for the Demons who can play at both ends – equating to a valuable defender-forward swing in fantasy. Fox Footy expert David King is tipping him to have a big year.
Al Paton’s verdict: Scored 102 in his only Marsh series appearance but his averages in his two full AFL seasons — 75 and 76 — are cause for concern. Could be a handy late round selection in SuperCoach Draft.
Connor Blakely (Fremantle) $411,500 DEF 2019 avg: 75.8 Marsh Series scores: 75, DNP
The Docker was tipped as the next big thing in defence when he logged nine SuperCoach hundreds in the last 12 games of 2017. His average of 85.1 in 2018 was serviceable before he dropped by 9.3 points to 75.8 last year. There were encouraging signs when he attended the fourth-most centre bounces for Fremantle in the Marsh Series against Carlton, but that was with Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters absent.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’ve been tempted before, but not this year. Don’t be surprised if Dylan Roberton averages just as much and he’s $150,000 cheaper. He’s no certainty to feature in Round 1 after not playing in the second of Fremantle’s Marsh Series games.
Wayne Milera (Adelaide) $402,500 DEF-MID 2019 avg: 74.1 Marsh Series scores: 103, 57
KFC SuperCoach breakout dreams are all about players like Milera, who looks capable of anything if he can settle at halfback and stay fit. If you pick him and it comes off you’ll feel like a genius, but the strike rate on getting these picks right isn’t high.
Al Paton’s verdict: Scored 100-plus three times last year and had another three in the 40s. Went 103 then 57 in the Marsh Series. I’m not brave enough.
Hunter Clark (St Kilda) $402,200 DEF 2019 avg: 74.1 Marsh Series scores: 97, 56
Clark was one of the beneficiaries of Brett Ratten taking charge at Moorabbin midway through last season. The No. 7 draft pick from 2017 was thrust into a halfback role by Ratten and averaged 85.4 from Round 15 onwards. There’s plenty of questions about how the Saints line-up in Round 1 with so many new faces. But it would be a huge shock if Clark wasn’t deployed in the quarterback role he performed so effectively under Ratten’s watch.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’m a huge fan, evidenced by trading Clark in late last year when he was on a hot streak. But can you start him and Sam Docherty? If we’re going to get five-six defensive rookies to pick from in Round 1, there’s unlikely to be space for two players in the $400,000-$450,000 price range. Maybe next year.
Alex Witherden (Brisbane Lions) $392,800 DEF 2019 avg: 72.3 Marsh Series scores: 49, 62
Looked like he was ready to become the next premium defender in KFC SuperCoach when he averaged 87 in his debut season, but he has gone backwards in the two years since. Needs to boot Daniel Rich off kick-out duties.
Al Paton’s verdict: Last year (average 72) was a bit of a mystery. Should improve, but by how much?
Zach Tuohy (Geelong) $386,300 DEF 2019 avg: 71.1 Marsh Series scores: 72, 112
The Irishman never quite got to premium status in KFC SuperCoach, hitting his peak in 2017 when he averaged 88.1. He’s dropped to 84.8 and 71.1 in recent years, scoring less than 60 five times in his 15 games in 2019. Tuohy’s dip coincided with Tom Stewart’s emergence as a SuperCoach premium. Stewart jumped from an 85.3 average in 2018 to 98.2 last year. At 30, Tuohy is unlikely to launch back above 80 again.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Has been prominent in pre-season but at 30, is he going to produce a 90+ season for the first time in his career? It would be one out of the box. There’s cheaper options such as Roberton who will likely score just as well.
James Aish (Fremantle) $353,000 DEF 2019 avg: 65 Marsh Series scores: 138, DNP
Burst on to the SuperCoach radar with a huge opening game of the Marsh Series, but has all the signs of a pre-season trap. Could flourish at a new club but bear in mind his SuperCoach averages over his six-year career — 71, 51, 63, 57, 68, 65.
Al Paton’s verdict: Nooooooo.
Jayden Short (Richmond) $349,300 DEF 2019 avg: 64.3 Marsh Series scores: 113, 73
The small defender was a player expected to take another jump after increasing his output from 58.2 points a game in 2017 to 85.8 in 2018. An elbow injury in Round 3 kept him out until Round 15 last season and he never quite got going despite being an important member of the Tigers’ premiership backline. If he is going to be back on kick-in duties, he could be this year’s best mid-price defensive smokie.
Tim Michell’s verdict: One of the best mid-pricers in defence and one of very few options available for about $350,000 to have averaged 85+ before. Strongly consider him if it means nabbing an extra premium on another line, particularly in midfield.
Jack Watts (Port Adelaide) $307,900 DEF 2019 avg: 81 Marsh Series scores: DNP
Footy’s forgotten man showed signs of flourishing in a SuperCoach-friendly role using his elite kicking skills out of the backline last year (scoring 90 in Round 1) before injury struck just two weeks into the season. Returns at a heavily discounted price.
Al Paton’s verdict: Could still be a handy SuperCoach player at some point but didn’t feature in the Marsh Series so you can’t start with him.
Adam Cerra (Fremantle) $338,900 DEF 2019 avg: 62.4 Marsh Series scores: 89, 71
The No. 5 draftee from 2017 is ready to take the next step after featuring in 41 games in the past two years under Ross Lyon. With a new game plan and Justin Longmuir at the helm, Cerra has been tipped to be one of the young guns to spend greater time in midfield. Against Carlton in the Dockers’ first Marsh Series match, Cerra had 19 disposals for 89 points from 67 per cent game time. He only averaged 62.4 last year, so it’ll take a big jump for him to become a premium.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Fremantle’s new game style — based largely on possession — should benefit players such as Cerra who will play across halfback and through midfield. Dockers fans have noted his versatility, which could be a KFC SuperCoach detterant. Do you really want a player who could be in a back pocket one week and across half-forward the next? He’s a talent, but it’s a big leap from 60 points to a premium average.
Grant Birchall (Brisbane Lions) $292,700 DEF 2019 avg: 77 Marsh Series scores: 46, 67
Birchall was a staple of plenty of KFC SuperCoach defences through Hawthorn’s golden era, averaging 90-plus from 2011-13 and 84 as recently as 2016. Since then he has played just eight games in three seasons due to injury. Played both Marsh Series games for scores of 46 and 67.
Al Paton’s verdict: The Lions have a way of turning injury-cursed players into reliable performers (think Lincoln McCarthy, Allen Christensen), but at 32 there isn’t enough upside to justify the risk.
Sam Durdin (North Melbourne) $285,600 DEF 2019 avg: 52.6 Marsh Series scores: 67, DNP
Majak Daw will return to North Melbourne’s defence in one of the best stories of 2020, but there’s a spot up for grabs if Durdin is good enough. Drafted in 2014, he’s preparing for his sixth season at the Roos. He didn’t debut until 2017 and his tally of 10 matches last year was his most during his time at Arden St. He had three scores of 76-plus last year but also four of less than 50.
Tim Michell’s verdict: It’s hard to see him being a consistent enough scorer to be a SuperCoach factor. There’s better options at his price too.
Jack Lukosius (Gold Coast) $274,600 DEF-FWD 2019 avg: 50.6 Marsh Series scores: 70, 58
The No. 2 draft pick found his feet in an intercepting role in defence later in 2019, resulting in dual-position status in KFC SuperCoach in 2020. Scores should continue trending upwards.
Al Paton’s verdict: Ask me again in 2022.
Tom Doedee (Adelaide) $273,700 DEF 2019 avg: 56 Marsh Series scores: DNP
The intercept defender was set to be one of the most-popular KFC SuperCoach picks of the year before a pre-season setback delayed his return from an ACL injury. He’s listed as being 1-3 weeks away, but the Crows are known for being cautious with players returning from injury. Doedee’s role suits SuperCoach, but unfortunately the time frame doesn’t. The 23-year-old averaged 82.2 from 20 games in 2018.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Doedee might be the perfect exit strategy if a mid-price defender doesn’t work out and he’s back about a month into the season. A knee injury is set to delay his start to the campaign but monitor his progress through the SANFL closely.
Isaac Quaynor (Collingwood) $261,700 DEF 2019 avg: 60.3 Marsh Series scores: DNP
The dashing Magpies teenager broke through for four games in his debut season but expect that number to climb sharply after a standout summer on the track. Was solid in the Pies’ practice match against Carlton but John Noble is ahead of him for a Round 1 berth.
Al Paton’s verdict: Likely SuperCoach star of the future, but you can’t start him if he’s not there in Round 1.
Dylan Roberton (St Kilda) $260,400 DEF 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: DNP, 60
Fingers crossed Roberton is good to go for Round 1 after a serious heart condition threatened his career. The St Kilda defender averaged a career-best 92.6 in his last full season in 2017, reaching 100 four times by Round 6. A repeat of that number would almost make him a season keeper at D6, although most coaches will start him in the hope of trading to a fallen premium when his price and break-even meet.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’ve cooled on him, but only due to the need to spend extra money on high-price rookies such as John Noble ($215K) and Lachlan Ash ($193K). If you’ve got the money and he’s fit for Round 1, don’t hesitate. The Saints have been buoyed by his off-season progress.
MIDFIELDERS
Sam Menegola $441,700 2019 avg: 81.3 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 7
Menegola was one of the most consistent KFC SuperCoach scorers at the Cattery in his first three seasons, averaging 99.3, 100.4 and 100. But his scoring fell away dramatically last year as he posted 81.3 from nine games. He’s been available as a FWD-MID in previous seasons but with MID only status, it’s hard to make a case for him in 2020. Quinton Narkle seems more likely to take on a prominent role in the middle after Tim Kelly’s move west.
Tim Michell’s verdict: At that price, you need him averaging 105 or more and he’s never gone close to that. Look elsewhere.
Jack Viney $439,300 2019 avg: 80.9 Marsh Series scores: 120, 133
Viney recorded his worst SuperCoach numbers since 2014 last year, playing through injury and averaging 80.9 points per game. The Melbourne hard-nut has never averaged above 100 but he is threatening surpass that mark – if his Marsh Series is anything to go by. Viney amassed 120 and 133 against Adelaide and Hawthorn respectively. Can he replicate that scoring during the season?
Dan Batten’s verdict: There’s enough data across his seven seasons of senior footy to suggest Viney is incapable of averaging midfield premium numbers. There may be a rise, but it smells like a trap to me.
Will Brodie $435,800 2019 avg: 80.3 Marsh Series scores: 99, 89
The contested ball winner has never been a regular at Gold Coast, which is a knock on his SuperCoach relevance. However, he did increase his average from 68.1 in 2018 to 80.2 last season in the eight games he played. Two of those were 100+ and he had at least 20 disposals in every game bar one. He’d need to increase his average by at least 20 points to be a worthwhile selection which seems a tall order.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Looks like he could emerge as a midfield bull for the Suns but I need to see more than I have in his 19 career games.
Dan Hannebery $417,000 2019 avg: 96 Marsh Series scores: 69
Injury has cruelled the former SuperCoach gun and he is a far-cry from the player who twice averaged above 113 across a season. However, when he eventually did enter the Saints side he performed well, scoring 94 points or more in four of his five games last season. In fact, Hannebery had the highest points per minute of any player in the competition in 2019.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He’s cheap but you can’t trust him to play 15 games, let alone 22.
Andrew McGrath $399,400 2019 avg: 73.5 Marsh Series scores: 94, 105
Positive signs from the No. 1 draftee in the pre-season as he looks to fulfil the promise of moving from defence to becoming a fully-fledged midfielder. He appeared to have peaked at an average of 73.5 playing in the backline but should improve spending more time around the ball. Will that be enough to justify spending almost $400,000 though? It’s a stretch, but I’m tempted.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He should give Essendon fans a glimpse of a bright future this year but is likely to be 12 months off a potential KFC SuperCoach explosion.
Quinton Narkle $396,600 2019 avg: 104.3 Marsh Series scores: 113, 78
‘Sparkle’ Narkle was thrown into the Cats’ on-ball mix in his three home-and-away games last year and thrived, posting ominous scores of 123 and 134. His other four games in the Cats’ side – including finals – produced far less impressive results, failing to score above 70. There is no doubting his ceiling, the question remains whether Narkle can do it on a consistent basis, and no Tim Kelly should help his cause.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Would have been an interesting pick if he had FWD-MID status. But it’s a massive risk picking a mid-priced midfielder who has played just 12 AFL games.
Oliver Florent $373,400 2019 avg: 68.8 Marsh Series scores: 66, 41
Another player in breakout territory approaching his fourth campaign in the Harbour City. He’s in no-man’s land though due to his price. He’s highly unlikely to boost his scoring from 68.8 to premium numbers and you’re guaranteed to burn a trade turning him into a fallen premium at some stage. Two hundreds in the last three games of 2019 was exciting, but don’t bother.
Tim Michell’s verdict: It’s always nice to hear a player is going to spend more time in midfield, but there’s much better options than Florent at a similar price or cheaper.
Rupert Wills $337,900 2019 avg: 69.1 Marsh Series scores: 53, 72
The 26-year-old Pie has been on the fringes due to the star midfielders ahead of him, managing just 13 games in four seasons. He averaged a whopping 123 points per game in the VFL last year, compared to 69.1 at AFL level. Wills had more centre-bounce attendances during pre-season with Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams missing at stages.
Dan Batten’s verdict: A tackling machine but doesn’t do enough with the footy. Likely to be forced out once Treloar returns from injury.
Jordan Clark $330,900 2019 avg: 60.9 Marsh Series scores: 78, 59
An exciting talent who will take SuperCoach by storm in years to come. His best was great last season and he made almost $200,000 for those who picked him as a cash cow. Eight scores of 54 or less is a huge worry though and should be enough to deter you if you were considering him as a mid-price bolter.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Had him last year and it was very much a love-hate relationship. No thanks.
Jackson Hately $301,600 2019 avg: 61.7 Marsh Series scores: 129, 92
How could we forget Jackson Hately? The man who struggled to get picked due to the Giants’ midfield logjam last year may be the player to benefit from Tim Taranto’s injury. The ball-winner posted scores of 85 and 95 in his first two games at AFL footy and posted similarly tantalising scores in his Marsh Series matches.
Dan Batten’s verdict: His job security is too shaky – a fact most of us know all too well.
Harry Morrison $287,200 2019 avg: 52.9 Marsh Series scores: 43, 84
Morrison makes the list as he was used in Blake Hardwick’s role across halfback in the second of Hawthorn’s Marsh Series games and scored 84 points. His numbers in 2018 (19 games, 64.5) would have caught the eye if he was closer to top rookie value, but he’s just too expensive to be a SuperCoach factor. Especially when he could be squeezed out of the team when Hardwick returns about two months into the season.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Just pick a rookie instead. They’ll generate more cash and likely score similar anyway.
RUCKS
Tim English $448,400 2019 avg: 82.6 Marsh Series scores: 123
All the talk out of Whitten Oval has been English is in for a big year, and his first Marsh outing franked that. Up against Scott Lycett in the first half, English was comfortably on top and finished with a game-high 123 points, winning 13 touches, 37 hit-outs and kicking two goals. The beanpole ruckman has added considerable size to his slender frame and appears set to add plenty of points to his 2019 average.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Can he average enough to keep the whole year? No. Could he be a useful stepping stone to Gawn/Grundy? Perhaps. Probably 1-2 years off entering the premium ruck category.
Toby Nankervis $404,300 2019 avg: 74.4 Marsh Series scores: DNP
He was a great KFC SuperCoach pick three years ago when he started at $366,400 and averaged 88.8. But injuries restricted the Tigers big man to nine matches last year and he’s locked in a battle with Ivan Soldo for No. 1 billing at Punt Road. You wouldn’t want to take a punt on Nakervis regaining the centre-square mantle, only for him to be squeezed out for Soldo a few weeks into the season.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He was a star a few years ago when he started at a similar price. But it’s all about set-and-forget now which means starting Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. Even if you are intent on picking a mid-pricer, Nank isn’t the answer.
Andrew Phillips $403,100 2019 avg: 92.8 Marsh Series scores: 73, 87
The Bombers recruit will have a key role while their ruck stocks remain depleted. Phillips recorded a very respectable average last season in his five games for the Blues, and could replicate that as the No. 1 man at the Bombers – at least until Tom Bellchambers returns.
Dan Batten’s verdict: If he was a bit cheaper he might be worth consideration.
Sam Jacobs $348,400 2019 avg: 80.2 Marsh Series scores: 66, 111
Now this is a mid-price ruck move I can get behind. Jacobs isn’t going to average 115.4 again like he did in 2014, but he’s a durable big man who only left Adelaide due to a lack of opportunity after Reilly O’Brien’s emergence. I don’t completely buy that Jacobs and fellow veteran Shane Mumford will share ruck duties. Expect Mumford to be back-up to Jacobs, who will certainly be the Giants’ first-choice ruckman. He’ll be a great stopgap for the first half of the season if you can’t afford to start with the big two.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’ll always advocate starting with Gawn and Grundy, but if you can’t squeeze them in, Jacobs is the man you should target. He ticks most of the boxes.
Zac Smith $254,700 2019 avg: 67 Marsh Series scores: 87, 122
Back at his first club after being stuck down the queue in Geelong’s long but unremarkable ruck brigade. In Jarrod Witts’ absence in the Marsh Series, Zac Smith shocked SuperCaoches with totals of 87 and 122 against Geelong and Adelaide respectively. His ton matched up against emerging big man Reilly O’Brien was no mean feat, but Witts will be back soon.
Dan Batten’s verdict: With co-captain Jarrod Witts closing in on a Round 1 return, it’ll be back to the NEAFL for Smith despite some strong pre-season form.
Sam Naismith $251,500 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: 79, 69
The Swans big man hasn’t played for the past two years and is more than $100,000 cheaper than he was scheduled to start 2018 ($363,700) as a result. I understand the appeal of picking a cheaper ruckman to load your KFC SuperCoach team in other positions, but Naismith’s career-best average is 69.6. That would mean giving up about 60 points each round to the Gawn-Grundy owners which is a significant gulf.
Tim Michell’s verdict: If you’re going cheap, it has to be Jacobs. At least he has a proven history of averaging 80+.
FORWARDS
Darcy MacPherson (Gold Coast) $443,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 81.7 Marsh Series scores: 132, 127
The Suns mid-forward is worth a look after lifting his average from 60 to 81.7 last year. MacPherson went from 14 disposals a game to 18.7 and averaged 6.1 tackles a game. On that trajectory, the 22-year-old will be a contender to finish in the top-10 forwards. Jordan De Goey (87.3) had the 10th-highest average in 2019 of this year’s forwards.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Has put himself at the forefront of mind with a blistering Marsh Series. His career is on the right KFC SuperCoach scoring trajectory and the early indications suggest he’ll be in the mix to be a top 6-10 forward come season’s end. He averaged 129 in pre-season.
Patrick Lipinski (Western Bulldogs) $441,500 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 81.3 Marsh Series scores: 71, 97
The bullocking young Bulldog looms as a breakout contender after averaging 92.5 points in the last five rounds of 2019. Lipinski’s average surged from 59.4 in 2018 to 81.3 last season, but whether he can push a 90-plus average will be determined by how much midfield time he gets.
Dan Batten’s verdict: The Dogs signalled their intent in their first Marsh Series game with star trio Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley attending more than 20 centre-bounces, while Lipinski attended the fourth-most with nine. He’s one to look at during the season if he gets greater midfield opportunity.
Christian Petracca (Melbourne) $441,300 FWD 2019 avg: 81.3 Marsh Series scores: 188, 72
Petracca’s KFC SuperCoach popularity skyrocketed after he monstered 188 points against Adelaide in the Marsh Series, racking up 27 contested disposals. The star Demon has been slated for greater midfield time after spending 79 per cent of games in attack last year. That doesn’t guarantee a scoring spike but his effort against the Crows was impossible to ignore, although his Marsh 2 score of 72 did temper expectations.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’m on the fence after a scores of 188 and 72 in the Marsh Series. He likely gets nudged out of teams due to Jack Steven, Andrew Brayshaw and Devon Smith being cheaper, with just as much scoring potential.
Brandan Parfitt (Geelong) $427,400 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 78.7 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 58
Parfitt’s SuperCoach average dipped in 2019, posting 78.7 points a game last season compared to 80 the previous year. He showed he was capable of producing premium totals, posting six 95-plus scores, but also fell below 70 on six occasions. Parfitt was left out of the Cats’ opening Marsh clash but is tipped to return following a standout showing in a VFL scratch match.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Is too good to be on the outer, but will he be the beneficiary of Tim Kelly’s midfield time? Quinton Narkle is ahead of him in centre-square pecking order.
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) $422,100 FWD 2019 avg: 77.7 Marsh Series scores: 108, 70
The Power rising star scored five KFC SuperCoach tons in his debut campaign, including a season-best 119 in Round 21 against Sydney. Rozee has been trialled in midfield during the off-season and amassed 108 against Brisbane Lions in Port Adelaide’s opening game of the Marsh Series. From 77.7 points last year, his average is only heading north.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Rate Rozee as both a player and a SuperCoach pick. How many players who spent the majority of the season in forward 50 averaged more than him last year? In four games last year where he had 20 disposals, he scored 102-119. That bodes well for a potential spike playing further afield.
Jack Martin (Carlton) $420,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 77.5 Marsh Series scores: 75, 78
While the former Sun has never averaged more than 82 in his six AFL seasons, his first Marsh Series performance was very encouraging. Martin reached 75 points from 45 per cent game time in his first match in navy blue, tallying nine disposals, five tackles and slotting a goal. Could the Blues recruit blossom into a SuperCoach premium at his new club?
Dan Batten’s verdict: Looks like a pre-season trap to me. Can’t see Martin going above 85 playing as an outside midfielder.
Jonathon Ceglar (Hawthorn) $417,000 RUC-FWD 2019 avg: 76.8 Marsh Series scores: 80, 101
Earmarked for the No. 1 ruck role at Hawthorn with Ben McEvoy to play predominantly in defence. There’s always going to be the risk coach Alastair Clarkson will swing McEvoy into the middle, but don’t let that deter you from considering Ceglar. The 29-year-old averaged 36 hit outs and 95.7 points in the last three rounds of 2019 when McEvoy was trialled as a key backman.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Love the idea of having potential ruck back-up via a Charlie Comben
($117,300, RUC-FWD) swing, but wouldn’t you trade Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy if they’re injured? Three games isn’t a big enough sample to pick him with much confidence. Have to admit his pre-season was promising and the price is tempting though.
Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs) $415,900 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 76.6 Marsh Series scores: 80, 86
Bailey Smith has the makings of a SuperCoach star of the future after recording an average of 76.6 in his debut season. Smith is a similar case to teammate Patrick Lipinski given there are limited spots up for grabs in the stacked Bulldogs midfield.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Expect him to build on his first-season average, but not enough for him to enter considerations. There’s just too many big guns in the Bulldogs team who chew up points and only so many breakouts can happen.
Brad Ebert (Port Adelaide) $415,200 FWD 2019 avg: 76.5 Marsh Series scores: 43, 47
The Port Adelaide veteran averaged less than 80 for the first time since 2011 last year as he was restricted to 11 games by concussion. Ebert spent the majority of time in attack upon his return and his average dipped from 100 after Round 6 to 76.5. He’d played 21 or 22 games in nine consecutive seasons before last year, so his durability isn’t an issue.
Tim Michell’s verdict: There’s spots up for grabs in Port Adelaide’s midfield and Ebert is expected to filter back into the middle in the absence of injured vice-captain Ollie Wines. He posted a career-best average of 100.7 two years ago but has had a quiet pre-season. He’s on the watch list, but I wouldn’t start him.
Chad Wingard (Hawthorn) $412,300 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 75.9 Marsh Series scores: 56, 50
Wingard had an injury-interrupted campaign in his first year at the Hawks and his SuperCoach average suffered as a consequence. However, spending more time in midfield, Wingard averaged 26.5 disposals, six tackles, 5.2 clearances and 90.8 points a game in the final four rounds. The 26-year-old finished with 15 touches and 56 points in a promising display in Hawthorn’s pre-season clash with St Kilda.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Wingard has averaged more than 88 four times in his career and he is more than capable of that at full fitness. His pre-season raised concerns though and there’s better options around his price or cheaper.
Liam Baker (Richmond) $403,900 DEF-FWD 2019 avg: 74.4 Marsh Series scores: 120, 46
Baker managed 85 or more in six of his first eight matches last year after playing three games in 2018. He played a more advanced role in Richmond’s Marsh Series clash against Collingwood, amassing 120 points. However, the Tigers were without their State of Origin stars in Wangaratta. When they returned, he only posted 46.
Tim Michell’s verdict: His dual-position eligibility is a bonus, but Sydney’s Jordan Dawson ($467,800) has the same DEF-FWD swing and greater scoring potential. Pass.
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Lance Franklin (Sydney) $394,200 FWD 2019 avg: 72.6 Marsh Series scores: DNP
Veteran superstar Lance Franklin was flying at the start of pre-season before he was forced to undergo surgery on his knee, putting him in doubt for Round 1. If he is ready to go he could prove an inspired selection, facing Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Carlton to start the season.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Couldn’t go lower than last year but it’d be a Buddy big risk coming off an interrupted pre-season.
Tom Lynch (Richmond) $388,800 FWD 2019 avg: 71.6 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 111
It’s feast or famine in SuperCoach for key forwards. Lynch posted three consecutive tons (103, 116 and 132) from rounds 17-19 last year, but also had a stretch of seven games in eight where he scored 57 or less.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Only consider key forwards mid-season when they have a favourable run of fixtures ahead. The Tigers finish 2020 with an appealing run against Adelaide, Carlton, Hawthorn and Fremantle during SuperCoach finals.
Tom McDonald (Melbourne) $387,000 FWD 2019 avg: 71.3 Marsh Series scores: 139, 50
Like his club, McDonald sparkled in 2018 and struggled last season. His Marsh Series hitout against Adelaide was reminiscent of his form two seasons ago when he averaged 97.6 points per game, finishing with 17 disposals, seven marks, three goals and 139 points.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He’s a nice forward smokie given the Demons are likely to rise this year. Would take a braver man than me to go through with it, though.
Blake Acres (Fremantle) $384,400 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 70.8 Marsh Series scores: 111, DNP
Our first look at Acres the Docker in the Marsh Series was eye-catching. The ex-Saint had 31 disposals, six clearances and six inside-50s against Carlton in a performance which earned praise from new coach Justin Longmuir. If only he hadn’t pinged a hamstring at training a few days later.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He was right in the mix after his efforts against the Blues until being injured. Look at Andrew Brayshaw instead if you want a Docker.
Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) $382,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 70.5 Marsh Series scores: 94, 102
He has been promised greater midfield time and we saw the benefits against Carlton in the Marsh Series when he tallied 19 disposals, seven tackles and four clearances on his way to 94 points. Entering his third season, the former No. 2 pick is a potential breakout contender but it’s worth tracking his midfield time when Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters return in Marsh game two. He has scored 90 points or more just three times in his 39 games so far.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Hasn’t shown enough to date to suggest he will elevate himself into forward premium status – even with more centre-bounce action.
Jack Riewoldt (Richmond) $374,100 FWD 2019 avg: 68.9 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 27
The one key forward you could consider. Riewoldt’s worst SuperCoach season from 2010-2018 was 81.5 and he averaged more than 90 in four of those years. The gun Tiger dropped $87,800 and $131,100 from his starting price in 2017 and 2018. After bottoming out at $324,100 two years ago, he averaged 113.8 from Round 15 onwards.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Keep him in mind for a mid-season trade. Although from this starting price, it’s unlikely Riewoldt will come much cheaper.
Jack Steven (Geelong) $361,700 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 74 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 97
There is no doubt the former Saint is underpriced entering 2020 after dealing with injury and mental health setbacks. From all reports he is in a good space at his new club despite a calf blow which halted his first pre-season as a Cat. While he is unlikely to return to his former SuperCoach glory, a 90-plus season average is a definite possibility with midfield minutes up for grabs in Tim Kelly’s absence.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He was in my side early in pre-season but his recent calf blow raised concerns over his durability. However, the first glimpse of him as a Geelong player in the Marsh Series has me reassessing again.
Jack Higgins (Richmond) $358,800 FWD 2019 avg: 66.1 Marsh Series scores: 22, DNP
The small forward made an encouraging return for the Tigers in Wangaratta after undergoing brain surgery last year. Higgins was a nice cash cow two years ago but doesn’t have the SuperCoach-friendly role which makes other mid-price options appealing.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Great to see him back out there, but there’s better SuperCoach options.
Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne) $339,900 FWD 2019 avg: 62.6 Marsh Series scores: 61, 52
Thomas provided plenty of excitement for Roos fans in his debut season and while he was an inconsistent scorer, he showed glimpses of his SuperCoach ceiling, registering scores of 109 and 107 – the latter coming in just his fifth game.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He’ll be great to watch, but not from a SuperCoach perspective. Pass.
James Rowbottom (Sydney) $337,600 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 62.6 Marsh Series scores: 51, 76
Yet another player forecast to spend more time in the engine room as Sydney looks to surround Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy with its future midfield guns. Rowbottom showed promise after his opening three matches last year, managing six scores of 70 or more and a season-best of 99.
Tim Michell’s verdict: A player with huge promise but after five scores of 47 or less last year, it’s a no for SuperCoach. His awkward price only serves to confirm this.
Jon Patton (Hawthorn) $337,000 RUC-FWD 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: 74, 40
Hawthorn fans are right to be excited about the presence the former No. 1 draft pick will bring to their forward line. You’d have to be a supreme optimist to pick a player who last featured in Round 15, 2018, in SuperCoach though.
Tim Michell’s verdict: No thanks. Ceglar is the man if you’re intent on having RUC-FWD swing.
Devon Smith (Essendon) $335,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 68.7 Marsh Series scores: 87, 117
Playing injured last season before being sidelined, Smith didn’t get close to the lofty heights of his 2018 campaign, where he averaged 22 touches, 8.4 tackles (ranked first in the competition) and 97.9 points. While he started slow in his first pre-season game, the tackle machine finished with a more than respectable score of 87.
Dan Batten’s verdict: A potential top-six forwards at this price? Sign me up. Tim Michell considers him a must-have and I couldn’t agree more.
Josh Kennedy (West Coast) $335,600 FWD 2019 avg: 61.8 Marsh Series scores: 122, 29
After three consecutive seasons where he averaged 92 or more, Kennedy hasn’t been a SuperCoach factor in the past two years. He kicked five (105 SuperCoach), six (122) and seven (129) goals in the matches where he posted triple figures in the past two years and it’s dangerous to be reliant on a player who needs to kick a bag to score well.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Encouraging signs in the first game of the Marsh Series but he’s been too hit-and-miss in the past two years to consider.
Ben Long (St Kilda) $283,100 FWD 2019 avg: 52.1 Marsh Series scores: 64, 85
A move to defence has put Saints dasher Long into the SuperCoach frame. He was solid across halfback, scoring 64 points from 11 disposals in the Marsh Series against Hawthorn. However, this was without Dylan Roberton, who is set to return to St Kilda’s back-six.
Dan Batten’s verdict: With Hunter Clark already playing as a defensive runner, it’s difficult to see Long scoring consistently.
Chayce Jones (Adelaide) $271,500 FWD 2019 avg: 50 Marsh Series scores: 74, 34
New Crows coach Matthew Nicks is clearly a fan of the first-round draftee, who played eight matches in his first AFL campaign. The Tasmanian didn’t have a great impact as a pressure forward but impressed in Round 23 when he scored 86 playing predominantly as an on-baller. Nicks wants him in the middle more often this year which is a great sign.
Tim Michell’s verdict: If only he was a bit cheaper. You’re in no-man’s land picking a player at that price as he’s not going to be a keeper and needs to score more than other rookies to make money. His role is a question mark too and he didn’t fire as KFC SuperCoaches had hoped in pre-season.
Joe Daniher (Essendon) $270,400 FWD 2019 avg: 62.3 Marsh Series scores: DNP
Daniher has managed just 11 games in the past two seasons due to his troublesome groin and there is no guarantee we will see the Bomber spearhead in the first half of this season. The 25-year-old averaged 86 points per game in his last full season in 2017.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Don’t. Even. Think. About. It.
Brett Bewley (Fremantle) $252,700 FWD 2019 avg: 51.7 Marsh Series scores: 93, 58
A mature-age recruit from the VFL, Bewley played seven games in 2019 with a top score of 68. It’s a worry that was his only total of more than 60 and four of his games were below 50. But the Dockers have been singing his praises all off-season and his Marsh Series 93 was one of the best scores of those close to the top echelon of the rookie price bracket.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Only if you’re desperate not to field a forward rookie. It’s likely Izak Rankine or Curtis Taylor could score similar numbers anyway.
Cameron Rayner (Brisbane Lions) $251,800 FWD 2019 avg: 46.4 Marsh Series scores: 60, 61
Rayner drew comparisons to Dustin Martin when he was the first name read out in the 2017 draft. However, the young Lion averages 21 points per game less than Martin after 23 games. This is largely due to the 20-year-old’s role as a small forward, an undesirable position for KFC SuperCoach. Rayner averaged a whopping 120 points per game at the under-18 carnival in his draft year as a damaging forward-mid, so it’s a matter of if, not when, he gets more centre-bounce action.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Until the Lions move Rayner into the midfield he cannot be considered, and it’s a tough midfield to break into.
Aaron vandenBerg (Melbourne) $248,000 FWD-MID 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: 100, 9
Aaron vandenBerg had a positive return to the Demons side in their Marsh Series hitout against Adelaide, having played just seven games in three seasons due to a recurring foot injury. The big-bodied Demon finished with 19 disposals, five tackles and raised the bat for a SuperCoach ton. He’s likely to be used up forward with short stints in the guts if he overcomes his injury woes.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He’s copped another foot injury which puts a line through him as a KFC SuperCoach option.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach: Expert verdict on best bargain picks for 17-round season