Mark Bickley: Adelaide Crows need to reset list and switch focus to starting a dynasty from 2025
With Adelaide out of premiership mode, regeneration and the development of young talent is now of the utmost importance to the club’s future, writes Mark Bickley.
Mark Bickley
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Every decision Adelaide makes from now has to revolve around 2025. What’s so important about 2025? Realistically, that’s the earliest the Crows can win their next premiership.
Adelaide this year regularly fielded one of the oldest teams in the competition, and a formline that has them no longer challenging for the ultimate prize. Regeneration is inevitable.
Part of that consideration needs to be around what the next premiership team looks like. There is a template for this, in terms of age and experience.
As a rough guide, premiership teams are more mature, with the average age for players in the 25-26 range, each having played between 100-150 games.
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Adelaide’s final match of the year against the Western Bulldogs gave an interesting insight into the different stages each club found themselves in on their premiership journey.
The Bulldogs — a team on the rise — had an average age of just under 24 with 75 games’ experience. The Crows were on the other end of the spectrum — an average age of 27 with almost 140 games per player.
While the numbers suggest Adelaide was in the final stages of a flag pursuit, its late-season form suggested anything but. Hence, the reason the Crows need to reset their list.
This takes place in several forms, the obvious being to replace older players on the list with younger ones. But just as important is getting games into those young players.
We all know that it takes about 40-50 games for players to feel comfortable and start to produce consistent, high-quality football.
So, the quicker you get games into these younger players, the better. Where Adelaide has struggled here is the apparent belief that the club was in premiership mode and couldn’t afford to experiment with its best team every week. That means sticking with the older, more experienced players.
That hurdle has now been removed. The development of young talent is now of the utmost importance. With this in mind, decisions on the future of players such as Sam Jacobs, Alex Keath, Hugh Greenwood, Eddie Betts and Cam Ellis-Yolmen have seemingly been made.
Almost certainly, all of these players could still hold down a spot in the Crows’ first 22 when in form, but at the expense of who? Ned McHenry, Tyson Stengle, Shane McAdam or Ben Davis? Lachie Murphy, Jordan Gallucci, Myles Poholke or Lachlan Sholl? Will Hamill, Andrew McPherson, Jordon Butts and Elliott Himmelberg? No.
With Wayne Milera, Tom Doedee, Darcy Fogarty and Chayce Jones having already given indications that they could be A-grade talent, every opportunity has to be given to the next generation of youngsters coming through. Hence, the focus on 2025.
Keath and Greenwood aren’t going to be around in 2025, so committing to them for the next three or four years slows the development of the next wave of youngsters who, if developed well enough, will form the nucleus of the Crows’ next successful challenge.
The Crows hold picks 4, 23 and 28 at this year’s draft. With concessions still to flow back from any Keath or Greenwood trades, that position will be improved even further.
The Crows have never had a higher draft pick than No. 4. And when you look at the last two drafts, players including Port Adelaide’s Connor Rozee last year and Collingwood’s Jayden Stephenson the year before are the quality we’re talking about in that area of the draft. Both played at least 20 games in their first year and had a big impact. The Crows will be hoping for a similar result.
The trade period presents another opportunity to build your list and with a much more immediate impact. The same principles must still apply.
Billy Frampton this week told Port Adelaide of his intention to seek greater opportunities through a trade to another club. He looks to be a perfect fit for Adelaide.
Turning 23 later this year, he is the perfect age and, having been on Port’s list for five years, his body is fully developed. His last two years at SANFL level have been very strong.
With the departure of Josh Jenkins from the Crows’ front half and Frampton’s ability to pinch-hit in the ruck, it looks an ideal fit while Elliott Himmelberg continues to develop his body and game.
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With the trade period starting on Monday, talks are still taking place and decisions made on players’ futures.
Adelaide list manager Justin Reid has his hands on the levers and is in control until a senior coach is appointed.
The Crows are in a state of flux at present. With an external review under way, the club is hesitant to outline its plans in any great detail. Unfortunately, in the absence of that plan a cloud of negativity has enshrouded the Crows.
One would hope that once the review is finished and a coach appointed the Crows will then articulate a clear strategy to its members about how it’s going to return to on-field success — an accurate account of where the club is at present, where it wants to go and how it’s going to get there.
As long as the members and supporters feel included, they will come along for the ride, even if it’s a little longer and bumpier than expected.