What if it all goes south? The theoretical headlines the State Government wants to avoid in 2020
This year has brought plenty of issues which could go one way or the other. Here’s the potential outcomes the State Government will want to avoid.
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The year 2019 provided highlights for the Steven Marshall government from landing Australia’s Mission Control at the Space Agency headquarters at Lot Fourteen to balancing the state’s finances and cutting land tax.
However, 2020 looks to be tougher with plenty of challenges on the horizon.
Daniel Wills and Matt Smith consider some of the nightmare headlines the State Government would hate to see in 2020.
No light at tunnels’ end
Infrastructure Minister Stephan Knoll has spent much of 2019 reminding South Australians it is his government that have put tunnels for the North-South corridor back on the agenda.
But a decision has already been delayed by six months sparking speculation tunnels are easier to talk about than do.
Subs go West
The West Australian Government has set its sights on stealing a lucrative submarine maintenance contract from Adelaide.
A decision on the future of the contract could be just weeks away, but if the jobs are to go west the ramifications will haunt the State Government all year.
Space Agency fails to launch
Premier Steven Marshall has placed a huge emphasis on Lot Fourteen in Adelaide’s CBD.
A centrepiece of the tech hub, Australia’s first Space Agency headquarters, was due mid-2019.Mr Marshall will need everything else to go to plan to maintain the public’s confidence in Lot Fourteen.
SA back of jobs queue
SA spent much of former premier Jay Weatherill’s tenure with the embarrassing title of having the nation’s highest unemployment rate. Mr Marshall called that a “jobs crisis” and promised to do better. But for a couple of months in 2019, increasingly volatile ABS figures again had us at the back of the jobs pack. If that sorry state of affairs returns and remains for an extended period, Mr Marshall could find himself on the unemployment line in 2022.
NSW abandons Basin plan
Hopes of keeping all of the Basin states committed to the Murray Darling Basin Plan were quickly diminishing as 2019 came to an end. Ripping up the plan will not create an additional drop of rain, but NSW seems hell bent on tearing up the plan.
Tram privatisation derailed
The State Government’s move to privatise the operation of tram services is set to be a key election issue with Labor threatening to rip up any contracts signed if they are to gain power in 2022. Anything less than business as usual after the tram privatisation could be a disaster for Mr Knoll.
Liberals backbench in fresh revolt
Liberals did what Liberals do last year, with MPs breaking away to cross the floor over mining legislation and revolting over early cash-grabbing versions of the land tax reforms. However, Mr Marshall managed simmering tensions without his position coming under threat. He’s imposed and kept relative peace in the party for six years now, a Herculean feat given the SA Liberals were for so long an unelectable rabble divided over leadership.
Labor pushes the boundaries
After every election, the battle lines are redrawn for the one ahead. The job is done by a judge, the Electoral Commissioner and Surveyor-General and is arguably the single biggest factor in deciding who wins the state’s unique electoral contests. On its way out of power, Labor significantly changed the directions that are given to the key commission and confusion reigns over how they will now proceed. Toss a coin and hold your breath.
Business confidence tanks
The Steven Marshall-led government talked a big game on turning the economy around. Business confidence surveys have been underwhelming but Mr Marshall and his Treasurer Rob Lucas would be hoping they were a consequence of land tax rumblings and nothing more sinister.
Ramping the new normal
Health and Wellbeing Minister Stephen Wade is battling to turn around a system that even his predecessor said was sick. While much of that occurs in offices and theatres away from the public eye, the apparently worsening problem of ambulance ramping outside of emergency departments is a very prominent symptom of a sector that still needs intensive care.
Budget deficit blowout as GST slides further, health spending surges
Treasurer Rob Lucas has talked darkly for a long time about the challenge of keeping the Budget in balance, but been pulling rabbits out of hats to keep the Budget in skinny surplus. With SA so heavily reliant on cash from Canberra and the health department sucking down money as always, just a gentle gust in the wrong direction could tip the balance and leave Liberals scrambling to save their standing as responsible fiscal managers.
State goes black again as wind, gas fail in sweltering heat
The statewide blackout was a humiliation that will never be forgotten. It was caused by a complex cascade of events during a storm, but nonetheless a lot of the political blame went on Labor at a time when power prices were also surging. The last thing the Liberals need on their watch is a return to those dark days, no matter what the reason for it.
Walls fall off at Darlington, as infrastructure plan crumbles again
Infrastructure, and the State Government’s ability to wrestle money from the Commonwealth for new projects, has been a huge focus for Infrastructure Minister Stephan Knoll. But he will be in a world of trouble if the money does not flow - and that wall falls from the Darlington upgrade again.
SA Best kill trading push
Treasurer Rob Lucas will be tempted to have another go at deregulating shop trading hours.
But does he have a trick up his sleeve to convince fierce opponents, including SA Best, to back the reforms in 2020.
Internal stoush over Senate spot
The departure of former Liberal turned Australian Conservative Cory Bernardi has sparked an internal search for a new SA senator. The search will coincide with decisions about Legislative Council candidates for the 2022 State Election raising the very real possibility of factional warfare behind closed doors that could surface into the public domain.
Power bills to surge after interconnector plan knocked back
When the state voted for a new government, it did so on the ambitious promise that power bills would fall by $302 dollars. Mostly, that relies on the Government getting approval for a new power link to NSW, which currently sits with national regulators.
Oval hotel misses key deadline, set to stay building site for World Cup
The new Adelaide Oval hotel has been a controversial project. Many in the Government believe that, as was the case with the stadium redevelopment, people will embrace the hotel once its done. The tight timeline is for a finish in the middle of the year, before millions of eyes watch our T20 World Cup matches. One way or the other, there’ll be nowhere to hide.
Training fail as students turn their back on VET defence programs
Boosting apprentice and trainee numbers, particularly in jobs of the future, has been a key promise by the State Government. But after a slow start, a bold aspiration to get 20,800 new apprentices within five years needs to pick up significantly to be realised.
NAPLAN scores keep sinking, sparking call to halt Year 7 move
A bid to get Year 7 into South Australian high schools will feel less like a priority if the state fails to improve its NAPLAN results. In August figures showed SA stayed below national averages in 19 of 20 tests across the four participating year levels, and was the worst-performing mainland state in 15.
Back to the drawing board
A new price or design for the Women’s and Children’s Hospital is still yet to be delivered. The State Government will be hoping they can do so early in the new year.