SA Election 2022: Premier Steven Marshall loses Covid-19 lead over Labor’s Peter Malinauskas | Analysis

The surge in Covid-19 cases has swept away Steven Marshall’s biggest advantage, but recent history gives a stark warning for Labor, writes Paul Starick.

The dramatic erosion of Steven Marshall’s lead as preferred premier over his Labor rival indicates he has squandered any upsurge in support from keeping Covid-19 out of SA for most of the past two years.

Labor Leader Peter Malinauskas leads the incumbent Mr Marshall 46 per cent to 39 per cent in a Newspoll published in The Weekend Australian – the first major poll of the campaign for the March 19 election.

This was a near-reversal from a Sunday Mail-YouGov poll published last March, which showed Mr Marshall held a commanding 20-point lead as preferred premier – 50 per cent to Mr Malinauskas’s 30 per cent.

That was despite a significant tightening of the contest that saw the Liberals then leading Labor 51 per cent to 49 per cent on two-party preferred support – down from a 53-47 per cent result in September, 2020.

Support for the Liberals slumped in the latest Newspoll, which showed Labor ahead on primary support, 39 per cent to the Liberals’ 37 per cent, and on two-party preferred support 53-47.

In public life since 2007 as a union chief and installed in parliament in 2015, Mr Malinauskas will remember that renowned political stuntman Nick Xenophon was preferred premier in a Newspoll published just a fortnight before Mr Marshall’s 2018 state election victory. He also will recall the Marshall-led Liberals lost the 2014 election despite winning the two-party preferred vote 53-47.

Opposition leader Peter Malinauskas speaking on the steps of parliament on Saturday Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

The risk for Mr Marshall is that voters are accepting Labor’s charge that he failed to properly prepare for the state border reopening on November 23 and, as such, exposed the public to the full force of the Omicron wave.

This has fuelled Labor’s health-focused campaign, while Mr Marshall has continued to emphasise nation-leading economic growth and hi-tech job creation.

“I think it does make it very clear to the people of South Australia – this is going to be a tight contest and there’s a lot at stake in this election,” Mr Marshall said on Saturday.

“You can either have a continuing growing economy, which allows us to invest in important projects … or you can go back to tired old Labor, high taxes, high unemployment and cuts to health”.

Premier Steven Marshall at Felixstow Reserve on Saturday, where he announced funds to restore wildlife to the area. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Mr Malinauskas declared he was focused on the state’s long-term future rather than polls.

“I genuinely believe in this election … we’ve a once-in-a-lifetime, post-pandemic opportunity, this chance only comes around once,” he said.

“What South Australians are crying out for is policy for the future of our state … I hope voters will be thinking about who has plans and policies for our state, plans for jobs and the economy but also incredible plans to fix the (hospital) ramping crisis and that is a priority for me.”

It is understood Labor’s campaign will switch in coming days to a greater focus on hip-pocket issues, such as cost of living and job creation, as petrol prices hit $2 per litre.

The Liberals, having focused on promoting Adelaide’s ranking as the world’s third-most liveable city, will continue to attack Mr Malinauskas as inexperienced and risky.