SA Election 2022: The 10 seats that will decide our next premier
Elections can be won and lost on just a handful of votes in a handful of seats. Michael McGuire takes a look at the 10 seats that could decide our next premier.
State Election
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Every election comes down to just a handful of seats.
The vast majority do not change hands. Seats such as the Liberal-held strongholds of Mackillop in the South-East, or Bragg in Adelaide’s toney eastern suburbs, are taken for granted.
As are seats such as Cheltenham and Croydon in Labor’s western suburbs heartland. But there are others that will decide this election.
Seats held by narrow margins that swing from Liberal to Labor and back again from election to election. Newland, Adelaide, Elder, King.
This election, though, has another added wrinkle. Independents. Three former Liberals who resigned from the party since 2018 are fighting against their old party. Another former Liberal in Troy Bell in Mount Gambier is also favoured to keep his seat. Long-term independent Geoff Brock has moved electorates and is challenging Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart in the state’s north. Another veteran MP, Frances Bedford, has moved into the ultra-marginal seat of Newland, ensuring a three-way stoush.
It is likely to be close with a hung parliament, where neither Liberal or Labor wins a clear majority. These are the 10 seats that will decide SA’s next premier.
ADELAIDE
Candidates
Rachel Sanderson (incumbent) – Liberal
Lucy Hood – Labor
Sean Cullen-MacAskill – Greens
Deanna Carbone – Animal Justice Party
Tom Birdseye - Real Change SA
Robert Walker - Aust Family Party
Margin: Sanderson holds by 1.0 per cent
Why it matters: A marginal seat that has swung between Labor and Liberal for much of the past 30 years. Labor is relying on its candidate Lucy Hood, a former journalist at The Advertiser and government adviser, ousting Child Protection Minister Rachel Sanderson as a key plank in its campaign to win back government. Labor is pushing hard on the government’s plan for a $662m “basketball stadium” beside the railyards that it believes is politically damaging, while the Liberals are reminding everyone else Hood wants to bring back the V8 car race to the city.
Geography: Adelaide CBD, North Adelaide, Gilberton, Collinswood, Nailsworth
Tip*: Labor
NEWLAND
Candidates
Richard Harvey (incumbent) – Liberal
Olivia Savvas – Labor
Frances Bedford – Independent
Adla Mattiske – Greens
David Sherlock – Animal Justice Party
Kate Simpson - Real Change SA
Brett Green - Family First
Hayley Marley-Duncan - Paulin Hanson’s One Nation
Dan Casey - Aust Family Party
Margin: Harvey holds by 0.1 per cent
Why it matters: A knife-edge seat that could determine who wins government. Six of the past seven winners of Newland have formed government. But predicting the outcome this time has been made even more difficult with the addition of independent Frances Bedford. Bedford has transferred from the neighbouring seat of Florey, where she is the sitting MP. The move was made necessary after Bedford lost crucial parts of her seat in the redistribution undertaken after the last election. The result is expected to be a genuine three-way contest for the seat. Harvey is in his first term as an MP, while Savvas is a Tea Tree Gully councillor who has worked in banking.
Geography: Tea Tree Gully, St Agnes, Banksia Park, Ridgehaven
Tip*: Labor
KING
Candidates
Paula Luethen (incumbent) – Liberal
Rhiannon Pearce – Labor
Kate Randell – Greens
Frankie Bray – Animal Justice Party
Alex Banks - Aust Family Party
Alisha Minahan - Family First
Margin: Luethen holds by 0.6 per cent
History: Liberal MP Paula Luethen won King at the last election. King is a new seat on the register, being created by the 2016 electoral redistribution, largely replacing the former safe Labor seat of Napier. Luethen has won respect within the Liberal Party as a hardworking local MP who is in touch with her community. Labor’s candidate Pearce moved to Adelaide from the Flinders Ranges to study economics at university and lives in the northeast with her husband and two children. Again, a seat that will be closely watched on election night with neither party overly confident of success.
Geography:Golden Grove, Greenwith, One Tree Hill, Salisbury Heights
Tip*: Liberal
ELDER
Candidates
Carolyn Power (incumbent) – Liberal
Nadia Clancy – Labor
Brock LeCerf – Greens
Matt Pastro – Animal Justice Party
Joshua Smith - Liberal Democrats
Cathryn Crosby-Wright - Family First
Eldert Hoebee - Real Change SA
Margin: Power holds by 2 per cent
Why it matters: Carolyn Power is a first-term Liberal MP who won Elder at her second attempt. She also ran in 2014 as Carolyn Habib and was engulfed in the scandal over the racist Labor election flyer, which asked the question “Can you trust Habib?” in front of a bullet-marked wall and appealed to a stereotypical view of people with Middle Eastern heritage. Many years later, Labor apologised for it. Before, Power won the seat in the 2018 election, Labor had held it since 1997 and they feel it is again winnable. Its candidate Nadia Clancy unsuccessfully ran for the federal seat of Boothby in the 2019 election but won a swing to Labor against Liberal MP Nicolle Flint.
Geography: Clarence Gardens, Daw Park, Pasadena, Clovelly Park
Tip*: Labor
DUNSTAN
Candidates
Steven Marshall (incumbent) - Liberal
Cressida O’Hanlon - Labor
Tony Holloway - Family First
Kay Moncrieff - Greens
Margin: Liberal by 7.5 per cent
Why it matters: The fiefdom of Premier Steven Marshall has become a talking point as the campaign progressed. Marshall is a high-visibility presence within the electorate, but there is a view that a combination of Covid restrictions and land tax changes have upset a few locals. Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon has run a strong campaign and there is a chance she could pull off a decent swing away from Marshall, but it still seems unlikely the Premier will lose his seat.
Geography: Kensington, Norwood, Payneham, Marden, Kent Town.
Tip: Liberal
KAVEL
Candidates
Dan Cregan (incumbent) – Independent
Rowan Mumford – Liberal
Glen Dallimore – Labor
Melanie Selwood – Greens
Padma Chaplin – Animal Justice Party
Gayle Allwood - Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
Margin: Nominal Liberal by 14.5 per cent
Why it matters: Another seat the Liberal Party managed to lose control of during its first term of government. Dan Cregan easily won the blue-ribbon Adelaide Hills seat in 2018 but did not settle easily into parliamentary life. Last year, Cregan first announced that he would not recontest the seat, then changed his mind and said he would – but as an independent. He said he believed that was the best way to serve his Adelaide Hills electorate. Cregan was then installed in the Speaker’s chair as the government lost control of the parliament. Cregan is a conservative but Labor could fancy their chances of persuading him to back it if there is no clear election winner, given his reportedly fractious relationship with Premier Steven Marshall.
Geography:Mt Barker, Littlehampton, Lobethal, Woodside
Tip*: Dan Cregan
STUART
Candidates
Dan van Holst Pellekaan (incumbent) – Liberal
Geoff Brock – Independent
Andrew Wright – Labor
Beth Leese – Greens
David Stone - Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
Margin: van Holst Pellekaan holds by 11.5 per cent
Why it matters: Stuart is notionally held by Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan by 11.5 per cent, which on the face of it makes it a very safe Liberal seat. But that margin is essentially meaningless being calculated on a straight Liberal v Labor fight. But van Holst Pellekaan’s threat does not come from Labor but from independent Geoff Brock. The last electoral redistribution moved Brock’s Port Pirie base, where he commands about 70 per cent of the vote, from his current seat of Frome into Stuart. As a result, it is a hard seat to interpret but Labor will be desperate for a Brock win.
Geography: Port Augusta (east half), Port Pirie, Solomontown, Risdon Park
Tip*: Liberal
NARUNGGA
Candidates
Fraser Ellis (incumbent) – Independent
Tom Michael – Liberal
Dianah Walter – Independent
Mark Paull – Labor
Kerry White – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
Ashley Wright - The Nationals
Wendy Joyce - Family First
Margin: Nominal Liberal by 18.2 per cent
Why it matters: Another of the seats that started life in 2018 as the most robust of Liberal fiefdoms that slipped away, this time as its MP, Fraser Ellis, was enmeshed in the country members’ expenses scandal. Ellis has maintained his innocence but is facing trial after the election for allegedly making 78 fraudulent travel claims worth more than $18,000. Still, even the Liberals believe Ellis will hold the Yorke Peninsula seat. Farmer Tom Michael is the Liberal candidate, while independent Dianah Walteris another who is running hard and presenting as an alternative to the major parties.
Geography: Port Wakefield, Wallaroo, Maitland, Marion Bay, Minlaton
Tip*: Fraser Ellis
BADCOE
Candidates
Jayne Stinson (incumbent) – Labor
Jordan Dodd – Liberal
Finn Caulfield – Greens
Fiona Eckersley – Animal Justice Party
Nicole Hussey - Aust Family Party
Ken Turner - Family First
Tristan Iveson - Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
Margin: Stinson holds by 4.6 per cent
Why it matters: While Labor believes it is unlikely to lose any of its current 19 seats, the Liberals believe Labor MP Jayne Stinson could be vulnerable in her inner south seat. Stinson stepped aside from the Labor shadow cabinet last year and outgoing Treasurer Rob Lucas has raised concerns about the level of staff “turnover” in her office. Badcoe, which was previously called Ashford, has been in Labor hands since 2002 and the Liberals are backing Unley councillor Jordan Dodd to break that run.
Geography: South Plympton, Edwardstown, Kurralta Park, Black Forest, Keswick
Tip*: Labor
WAITE
Candidates
Sam Duluk (incumbent) – Independent
Alex Hyde – Liberal
Heather Holmes-Ross – Independent
Catherine Hutchesson – Labor
Brendan White – Greens
Ben Freeling – Animal Justice Party
Margin: Nominal Liberal by 7.4 per cent
Why it matters: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Waite was a robust Liberal seat after Sam Duluk comfortably took the honours in the 2018 election. Duluk, though, then resigned from the Liberal Party after some appalling drunken behaviour at a Christmas party in 2019. Duluk ultimately would be found not guilty of assaulting fellow MP Connie Bonaros. Even so, magistrate John Wells said Duluk “behaved like a drunken pest at the party’’. Duluk faces an uphill battle to retain the seat, which pits him against his good friend, and former Adelaide city councillor, Alex Hyde. Mitcham mayor Dr Heather Holmes-Ross, former owner of a Blackwood cafe, also could be worth keeping an eye on here.
Geography: Mitcham, Blackwood, Belair, Coromandel Valley, Clapham
Tip*: Liberal
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