SA election: Support for Xenophon in free fall as Liberals ahead

Nick Xenophon’s SA Best’s primary vote is in freefall and his personal popularity is crashing, an election Newspoll reveals.

Nick Xenophon’s SA Best has seen its primary vote drop from 32 per cent in December to 21 per cent just a fortnight before the state election. Picture: AAP

Nick Xenophon’s self-described big gamble to quit the Senate last year and lead SA-Best to a balance-of-power position in South Australia is at risk of imploding, with his new party’s primary vote in freefall and his personal popularity crashing.

Mr Xenophon’s federal influence has already been diminished with the loss of former senator Skye Kakoschke-Moore. Her replacement, Tim Storer, is likely to serve as an independent, reducing Mr Xenophon’s federal bloc of three senators to two, and increasing the influence of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

In South Australia, Mr Xenophon’s SA Best has seen its primary vote drop from 32 per cent in December to 21 per cent just a fortnight before the state election, according to a Newspoll taken ­exclusively for The Weekend ­Australian.

Of greater concern to Mr Xenophon will be his standing among voters, as his preferred premier rating has plummeted from 46 per cent in December to 29 per cent in the latest survey, just one point above South Australian Labor Premier Jay Weatherill, and ­only five points clear of Liberal Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

The Newspoll shows Labor’s primary vote increasing by three points to 30 per cent, but still shy of the 35.8 per cent recorded at the last election.

GRAPHIC: SA election Newspoll

The Liberals’ vote also rose, from 29 per cent in December to 32 per cent, but remains well short of its 2014 ­election-high of 44.8 per cent. Today’s Newspoll also reveals that, while most voters believe the Liberal Party would be best at managing the state’s economy, South Australians are divided over which major party would better manage their energy supply and reduce power prices.

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Of those surveyed, 37 per cent said the Liberals would deliver better energy policy outcomes, while 36 per cent sided with Labor. A substantial 27 per cent were yet to decide.

Energy policy has been furiously debated in South Australia since a devastating statewide blackout in September 2016, and the closure of the state’s last coal-fired power station, amid the rapid rise of renewables.

Mr Weatherill’s pre-election announcement to commit Labor to a 75 per cent renewable energy target by 2025 appears to have paid some dividends to the ALP, with 32 per cent of all voters more likely to vote Labor as a result. However, 34 per cent said the announcement would not influence their voting intentions, 22 per cent were less likely to vote Labor and 12 per cent remained undecided.

The Greens could only manage a one-percentage-point rise in primary vote support since the previous Newspoll to 7 per cent, while support for other parties and independents increased from 6 to 10 per cent. Of this, 6 per cent is for Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives, a new party that took over Family First, which at the 2014 election achieved a primary vote of 6.2 per cent.

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The drop in statewide support for SA-Best, from 32 to 21 per cent, appears to be linked to the party not running candidates in all 47 lower house seats. However, if SA-Best did secure 21 per cent of the statewide vote on March 17, this would still ­represent an ­average of 27 per cent voter support in each of the 36 seats in which it is fielding ­candidates.

Given the unpredictable nature of preference flows in likely three-cornered contests across a range of previously safe and more marginal seats, Newspoll has for the second consecutive survey been unable to calculate an accurate two-party-preferred vote.

Recent seat polls in four electorates by YouGov Galaxy for ­Adelaide newspaper ­The Advertiser havealso indicated a softening in support forSA Best.

The most concerning for SA-Best was this week’s poll in the ­Adelaide Hills seat of Heysen, which lies almost entirely within the federal electorate of Mayo, held by Mr Xenophon’s sole federal lower house MP, Rebekha Sharkie.

The poll has SA-Best’s primary vote at 22 per cent, behind the Liberals with 39 per cent and Labor’s 15 per cent, and raises questions about whether SA-Best will ultimately capture any seats, and if Mr Xenophon can win his seat of Hartley in Adelaide’s east, held by Liberal MP Vincent Tarzia.

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Today’s Newspoll of 1078 voters was taken from Tuesday to Thursday, when the election campaign was dominated by the ­release of a damning report by the Independent Commissioner Against Corruption into Labor’s handling of the Oakden mental health aged-care facility scandal. Although no specific questions were asked in the Newspoll about the impact of the Oakden affair on voting intentions, the matter appears not to have resulted in an immediate backlash against Labor.

Mr Weatherill is due to face Mr Marshall at the next fixed-term election on March 17, more than 16 years after Labor took power.

Mr Weatherill negotiated a hung parliament to retain power at the last election, despite winning just 47 per cent of the two-party vote.