SA election polls: Xenophon struggling in Hartley, Marshall looks safe in Dunstan, Bignell locked at 50-50 in Mawson
STEVEN Marshall and Nick Xenophon aspire to shape SA’s future — but after next week, one of them may not even be in State Parliament. The Advertiser’s final opinion polls of four crucial seats before Saturday’s state election also reveal a prominent government minister is in the fight of his political life.
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- Election HQ: See the latest news, analysis, videos and data maps
- Mad Monday 1 - Lee, Morialta: Rising frontbench stars in jeopardy
- Mad Monday 2 - Heysen, Giles: Xenophon candidates in the hunt
- Mad Monday 3 - Frome, Morphett, Florey: Independents in the lead
- Leaders react to today’s polls
SA Best Leader Nick Xenophon is at grave risk of failing to win his own seat at this weekend’s state election, a result which could throw his party and the new parliament into chaos.
A final four exclusive Advertiser-Galaxy state election polls, which come just as many days before votes are cast, show this already unconventional campaign could get even weirder still.
Opposition Leader Steven Marshall is poised to hold his Norwood-based seat of Dunstan despite losing skin due to the intervention of an SA Best candidate, but could be stranded short of the premier’s office as the Liberals are deadlocked with Labor in must-win Mawson.
Mr Xenophon, who stunned the nation with his bold push last year to return to state politics through the eastern suburbs seat of Hartley, trails incumbent Liberal Vincent Tarzia 49-51.
In Taylor, an outer northern suburbs seat held by disgraced former minister Leesa Vlahos, Labor is fighting for its political life and also leads SA Best by the narrowest of margins.
The result there will be a heart-stopper for Labor strategists and throws into doubt a range of working class seats — clustered around the shuttered Holden factory — which SA Best is contesting. They include Playford (Parafield Gardens, Mawson Lakes), Elizabeth and Ramsay (Salisbury). Labor minister Susan Close faces a strong challenge from SA Best’s Gary Johanson in Port Adelaide and there are concerns for Deputy Premier John Rau in Enfield.
HARTLEY
In Hartley, Mr Tarzia leads his more famous and fancied rival 51-49. The seat includes the suburbs of Paradise, Campbelltown, Newton, Hectorville, Tranmere and Magill.
He claims the highest primary vote at 38 per cent, a 10 per cent slide since the 2014 election.
Mr Xenophon runs second on 30 per cent primary, with former Labor minister Grace Portolesi further back in third place on 22 per cent. That is almost half what Labor recorded in 2014.
The results mark a slide for Mr Xenophon from 35 per cent primary support in an October Advertiser-Galaxy poll, most of which has gone to Labor. Mr Tarzia’s vote is the same.
Victory for the Liberals in Hartley this weekend would be a huge boost to Mr Marshall’s hopes of becoming premier, and is a must-win in his bid to get the magical 24 seats.
But it could cause chaos for Mr Xenophon’s new third force in SA politics, raising the prospect of SA Best candidates being elected in other seats but not having their leader in Parliament. Mr Xenophon has said he would “still be around” as a mentor in that event, with little detail about how such an unprecedented arrangement would actually function.
YouGov Galaxy managing director David Briggs said Mr Xenophon would need strong preference flows from other parties in Hartley and was at risk of defeat.
“This could be a problem because both the Greens and Australian Conservatives candidates have put Vincent Tarzia ahead of Nick Xenophon on their how to vote cards,” he said.
“Further to this, Grace Portolesi of the Labor Party has issued a split how to vote card and without a strong flow of preferences from Labor Nick Xenophon is likely to fall short.”
Premier Jay Weatherill has also made unsubstantiated claims that several SA Best candidates are planning to quit the party if they are elected at the weekend. Both major parties believe they may be able to “pick off” SA Best MPs and deal with them individually in negotiations to form a minority government if Mr Xenophon is not in Parliament to keep the bloc together.
Previous Advertiser-Galaxy polls have found SA Best candidates competitive in the Adelaide Hills seats of Heysen and Morialta, but trailing Liberal candidates. In Whyalla-based Giles, SA Best’s Tom Antonio was deadlocked 50-50 with Labor MP Eddie Giles a month ago.
The Greens record 5 per cent in Hartley and their how to vote cards direct preferences to the Liberals over SA Best, but it is unknown how many supporters will follow the advice.
Labor is offering no direction, making predictions of where their preferences will go difficult.
Mr Marshall is the preferred premier in Hartley, recording 34 per cent. Mr Weatherill has 28 per cent backing and Mr Xenophon 22 per cent.
The poll of 590 voters was taken on Saturday.
TAYLOR
Ms Vlahos is the incumbent Labor MP in Taylor, making way for colleague Jon Gee as part of a factional deal that positioned her for an eight-year term in the Upper House.
Ms Vlahos gave up that position days before the Independent Commission Against Corruption released its damning report into the Oakden aged care home, saying she did not want to be a campaign distraction. Taylor includes Edinburgh, Elizabeth North and Davoren Park.
Galaxy estimates Labor leads SA Best 51-49, an 8 per cent two-candidate preferred swing away from the State Government. Labor’s primary vote is down 9 per cent to 39 per cent.
SA Best candidate Sonja Taylor is achieving 29 per cent primary support. The Liberals have 23 per cent and are directing their preferences towards Ms Taylor over Mr Gee.
Ms Taylor also has the beneficial top position on the ballot paper, with Mr Gee bottom.
The seat also has a remarkably high 16 per cent undecided vote, which has been excluded from the calculations of how candidates perform relative to each other. SA Best would need only to convert the majority of those people on Saturday to have a strong chance of victory.
Mr Xenophon is preferred premier in the seat, on 28 per cent support. However, a larger 29 per cent of respondents said they can’t choose between any of the three options to lead SA.
Mr Weatherill is second on 27 per cent, and Mr Marshall has 16 per cent as preferred leader.
Of the 11 Mad Monday/Troppo Tuesday polls taken in the campaign, SA Best has found its best primary vote support in two Labor seats — Taylor (29 per cent) and Giles (31 per cent).
The Taylor poll surveyed 505 people on Saturday.
MAWSON
Mawson looms as a complicated cliffhanger, which appears a 50-50 coin toss between incumbent Tourism Minister Leon Bignell and his Liberal rival Andy Gilfillan.
Mr Bignell has twice held the seat against a statewide swing to the Liberals, but suffered a huge blow at a recent distribution, which cut 8.9 per cent from his margin. Mawson now includes McLaren Vale and Kangaroo Island, becoming a notional Liberal marginal seat.
It sits in the middle of the electoral pendulum and would be the “tie breaker” electorate in a traditional two-horse-race campaign that delivers a major party the final seat for a majority.
SA Best is polling a solid 20 per cent in Mawson, but running third behind the major parties.
Preferences from SA Best voters will be critical in splitting Mr Bignell and Mr Gilfillan.
Mr Gilfillan leads the primary votes on 37 per cent. Mr Bignell has 30 per cent.
Greens how to vote cards direct their preferences to Mr Bignell, while Mr Gilfillan has support from the Australian Conservatives. Only 1 per cent of respondents were uncommitted, indicating the first choice for most local voters has been firmly locked in.
SA Best is running open tickets in all seats, with no advice on how to preference.
Mr Marshall is preferred premier in Mawson, with 35 per cent support. Mr Weatherill on 27 per cent runs ahead of Mr Xenophon at 25 per cent. Thirteen per cent are uncommitted.
Mr Bignell this week faced accusations he has dropped Labor branding and his own image from now predominantly blue campaign signs, to distance himself from the Government.
The poll of 538 voters was taken on Saturday.
DUNSTAN
Mr Marshall is being pushed harder than he would like in Dunstan, but is positioned for victory. Galaxy estimates he is headed for a 53-47 victory over Labor’s Matt Loader.
Mr Marshall won the Norwood-based seat with 50 per cent of the primary vote at the last state election in 2014, meaning he did not need to worry about preference flows.
However, his direct support has now been dragged to 44 per cent as SA Best’s Jack Noonan takes from both major parties to clock up 15 per cent of the primary vote. Mr Loader’s primary support is 30 per cent, a 6 per cent slide for Labor since the last state election.
The Greens’ 8 per cent is a decline from 11 per cent in 2014, and will be directed to Labor over Mr Marshall. However, Mr Marshall has the plum top spot on the ballot.
Labor last month pledged a $279 million tram line to Norwood, a clear sign the party thought it was in the race for an upset victory. Mr Marshall says the potential loss of trees and parking on The Parade means few locals want the project and he is regularly lobbied to oppose it.
Dunstan is one of two Liberal seats Labor had high ambition of picking up this weekend. The other is Adelaide, which takes in the CBD and North Adelaide, which has also been promised a tram.
Mr Marshall is preferred premier in Dunstan, with 41 per cent support. Mr Weatherill runs second on 34 per cent. Mr Xenophon’s 13 per cent is just ahead of 12 per cent uncommitted.
The poll reached 576 people on Saturday.
THE WASHUP
The Mad Monday and Troppo Tuesday series has uncovered close contests across the state as SA Best throws new unpredictability into the campaign. They include areas like Taylor in the industrial north and Liberal seats through the Adelaide Hills that previously had been safe.
Several polls have shown SA Best threatening in both Liberal and Labor heartland, but short of the support needed to certainly win a seat, including Mr Xenophon’s own target of Hartley.
Labor minister Stephen Mullighan faces a red-hot threat from the Liberals in the western suburbs seat of Lee, but the race was line ball when polled a month ago.
Only one poll, in the independent-held electorate of Morphett around Glenelg, has shown a likely change of hands as the seat reverts to the Liberals. Three independents also look likely to return but two, Geoff Brock and Troy Bell, remain at risk of losing to Liberals.
Several decisive battlegrounds including Labor-held Colton (Henley Beach) and Elder (Pasadena) have been radically redrawn, and are thought likely to flip to the Liberals on new boundaries, but have not been the subject of published polling during the campaign.
However, it is clear that both parties are being made to fight ferociously to stave off SA Best in locations that would otherwise be taken for granted and neither can count on winning enough of the traditional marginals in the mortgage belt to be assured of outright majority.
Should Mr Xenophon lose Hartley, and SA Best candidates get elected in the Adelaide Hills or Whyalla and Adelaide’s north, any minority government negotiations could be lengthy.
The electoral commission intends to have all votes counted by March 25, the second Sunday after the election, and is required by law to wait that week for postal votes to be received.
A trend towards increased early voting also makes any clear result on Saturday night unlikely.
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