SA Election 2018: Advertiser-Galaxy poll shows Nick Xenophon set to win state seat of Hartley, with 53 per cent of two-candidate vote

UPDATED: SA BEST Leader Nick Xenophon is in the box seat to win the state seat of Hartley and return to SA Parliament, as major parties fear it could be just the first of many to fall.

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SA BEST Leader Nick Xenophon is in the box seat to win the state seat of Hartley and return to SA Parliament, as major parties fear it could be just the first of many to fall.

An exclusive Advertiser-Galaxy poll first revealed online yesterday shows Senator Xenophon leading 53-47 on a two candidate basis against incumbent Liberal MP Vincent Tarzia, a first-termer who took the eastern suburbs seat from Labor in 2014.

Senator Xenophon last week revealed plans to quit Federal Parliament to contest the eastern Adelaide suburbs seat of Hartley at the next state election in March 2018, aiming to take the balance of power.

In the first poll conducted in the seat, it can be revealed Senator Xenophon leads 53-47 in a two-candidate race against the Liberals, and is set to make incumbent Vincent Tarzia a one-term MP.

Mr Tarzia leads on primary votes, with 38 per cent support.

However, Senator Xenophon is nipping at his heels on 35 per cent and would comfortably take the seat on preferences.

Labor, which held the seat until 2014, is a distant third on 17 per cent of the primaries.

The Greens, Australian Conservatives and other collectively claim 10 per cent support.

Galaxy polled 516 voters in the seat of Hartley on Tuesday night.

THE BATTLEGROUND: THE ELECTORATE OF HARTLEY

SA has a history of producing hung parliaments, and just one seat could be enough to put Senator Xenophon in a kingmaker position.

However, recent statewide polling shows him achieving support close to that of the major parties and placed to claim several seats.

Senator Xenophon has pledged to run a fleet of candidates in Lower House seats at the election, saying SA has a government that deserves to lose and an opposition that doesn’t deserve to win.

He has so far announced five other candidates, who are all running in seats either held by the Liberals or that have been redrawn in their favour as part of a major boundaries shake-up.

Senator Xenophon says he wants to run in an even spread of Liberal and Labor seats.

Incumbent Liberal MP Vincent Tarzia. Picture: Calum Robertson

The challenger Nick Xenophon. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

Major party sources have told Advertiser.com.au that polling shows the Liberals vulnerable throughout the Adelaide Hills and country, with seats including Mount Gambier well in play.

There are fears that the Hills seat of Heysen, held by retiring former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond, could fall to SA Best.

It is also believed that Opposition education spokesman John Gardner is at serious risk in Morialta and Chaffey, a Liberal Riverland seat, is vulnerable.

Morialta Liberal MP John Gardner. Picture: Juan Van Staden.

Independent MP Geoff Brock. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

Independent MP Geoff Brock, now the Regional Development Minister in Labor’s Cabinet, is planning to run again and could be challenged by SA Best in his Port Pirie-based seat.

Labor’s main vulnerability is understood to be the Whyalla-based Giles, where the Nick Xenophon Team polled strongly at last year’s federal election, and Adelaide’s west.

Last week, it was revealed that former Liberal leader turned Labor Cabinet minister Martin Hamilton-Smith is set for a flogging in the Mitcham foothills seat of Waite.

Liberal MP Sam Duluk is favourite to claim victory, but faces a possible upset at the hands of SA Best.

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POLL RESULTS

PRIMARY VOTE

Vincent Tarzia — Liberal: 38%

Nick Xenophon — SA Best: 35%

Labor: 17%

Greens: 6%

Australian Conservatives: 3%

Other: 1%

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

Vincent Tarzia — Liberal: 47%

Nick Xenophon — SA Best: 53%

THE MEMBERS OF HARTLEY

1977 — 1982: James D Corcoran (Labor)

1982 — 1993: Terence R Groom (Labor/Independent)

1993 — 2006: Guiseppe (Joe) Scalzi (Liberal)

2006 — 2014: Grace Portolesi (Labor)

2014 — Present: Vincent Tarzia (Liberal)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED VOTE IN 2014

Liberal — 52.4%

Labor — 47.6%