SA state election 2018: Advertiser-Galaxy polls of Lee and Morialta show Labor’s Stephen Mullighan and Liberal John Gardner at risk

WHAT exactly Nick Xenophon’s big bucket of SA Best votes holds is anyone’s guess, according to The Advertiser’s political experts, as new polling suggests serious risks for star Labor and Liberal MPs.

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WHAT exactly Nick Xenophon’s big bucket of SA Best votes holds is anyone’s guess, according to The Advertiser’s political experts, as new polling suggests the X-factor could hit hard for Labor and Liberal star MPs in two seats.

Transport and Infrastructure Minister Stephen Mullighan and Opposition education spokesman John Gardner face white-knuckle battles at next month’s state election, as exclusive Advertiser-Galaxy polls show the rise of SA Best threatens to cost them their seats.

In the first of four Mad Mondays at Advertiser.com.au, we today reveal the findings of twin exclusive polls taken in the critical state seats of Lee and Morialta on Friday evening.

Mr Mullighan holds the western suburbs seat of Lee, centred on West Lakes and Grange, by a narrow 2.6 per cent margin. Mr Gardner has Morialta, a notionally safe Liberal seat with a margin of 11.6 per cent.

Further polling of other key seats will be conducted each week as SA hurtles toward a statewide vote on March 17, and released exclusively online at noon every Monday.

Live analysis will be broadcast via Facebook Live from 3pm, including a panel of our leading political experts, and full coverage of the fallout will feature in the following day’s newspaper.

Transport Minister Stephen Mullighan with Premier Jay Weatherill.

LEE

The poll of 520 respondents in Lee shows Mr Mullighan at serious risk of losing to the Liberals.

Often spoken of as a possible future Labor leader, Mr Mullighan’s primary vote has slid from 42 per cent at the 2014 state election to 34 per cent in the Advertiser-Galaxy poll. That places him second, behind Liberal candidate and West Torrens councillor Steven Rypp on 39 per cent.

Much of Mr Mullighan’s vote appears to be bleeding to SA Best, which has 18 per cent.

Galaxy estimates the two-party result at a dead-level 50-50 between Liberal and Labor.

However, SA Best’s preferences are likely to be decisive in the final count.

While SA Best Leader Nick Xenophon has indicated he will run so-called “open” tickets that preference neither major party, it is unknown which his supporters will place higher.

Opposition Leader Steven Marshall with Liberal frontbencher John Gardner. Picture: Juan Van Staden

MORIALTA

Galaxy estimates Mr Gardner is up 52-48 on a two-party basis against SA Best in Morialta.

His primary vote has gone backwards by 15 per cent since the 2014 state election, to 40 per cent. SA Best candidate James Sadler, an education consultant, runs second on 25 per cent.

Labor is in turn nipping at his heels, with 21 per cent. The survey is of 505 people.

It suggests an extremely complicated count, in which SA Best could be pushed to third place once Greens preferences flow through to Labor. If that were to occur, Mr Gardner could be confident of taking the seat as SA Best drops out of the count and its preferences scatter.

If SA Best remains second, Labor preferences could kick Mr Sadler over the top.

Morialta is thought to be one of SA Best’s strongest state electorates. Mr Xenophon’s candidate Rebekha Sharkie performed well in the region at the 2016 federal election, and won the Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo.

Candidates across the state will be looking at the results closely, as they try to gauge whether the SA Best phenomenon is running out of steam after a trying fortnight for Mr Xenophon.

SA Best candidate for Morialta James Sadler with party leader Nick Xenophon. Picture: Matt Turner

Morialta is next door to Hartley, the state electorate which Mr Xenophon is contesting.

It also borders Newland, a Labor-held seat targeted by Liberals, and Kavel in the Adelaide Hills, where SA Best also threatens to upset Opposition Leader Steven Marshall’s plans.

Labor also has broader concerns as its vote slips in Lee. Port Adelaide Enfield Mayor Gary Johanson is running for SA Best in neighbouring Port Adelaide as he tries to unseat Education and Child Development Minister Susan Close. South of Lee is the Henley Beach-based Colton, where popular Labor MP Paul Caica is retiring and a redistribution has aided the Liberals.

Mr Weatherill is the preferred premier of three options in Lee, with 31 per cent backing. Mr Marshall runs second, with Mr Xenophon last and tied with undecided on 22 per cent.

In Morialta, Mr Xenophon is the slim preferred premier on 28 per cent. Mr Weatherill and Mr Marshall are tied in second, with 27 per cent of the support. There are 17 per cent undecided.

There is also a marked difference in the views of party supporters about their leaders.

Mr Weatherill is a rock star with Labor’s dwindling base, as 80 per cent or more of those voters in each seat say he is the right man to lead SA. Mr Marshall is the preferred premier of only 63 and 67 per cent of intending Liberal voters in Lee and Morialta respectively.

YouGov Galaxy managing director David Briggs said it appeared Mr Marshall was struggling to convince voters he was ready to lead, as SA Best made a swag of seats three-way contests.

“With this level of doubt among his own supporters this looks set to be a tough election for the Liberal Party and its leader,” Mr Briggs said. “Nick Xenophon’s SA Best will make many state seats into three cornered contests at the forthcoming state election and this will wreak havoc on the cosy two-party system that we have become accustomed to.

“In Lee and Morialta primary support for the major parties has slumped and the preference flow from the minor parties will be critical in determining the final outcome.”

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