SA election polls: Independents Geoff Brock and Frances Bedford set for re-election but Duncan McFetridge struggling
NICK Xenophon wants to be a political kingmaker, but exclusive new polls show he’s got company as up to three other independents could claim victory and have the power to decide who forms the state’s next government.
SA 2018
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- SA Election HQ: News, views, seat profiles and more
- Mad Monday 1: Two political rising stars in fight for their future
- Mad Monday 2: Will SA Best snatch Labor/Liberal heartland seats?
- Leaders in focus: We put the spotlight on our potential premiers
FORMER Port Pirie mayor Geoff Brock, who famously handed Premier Jay Weatherill victory after the last state election in a deal done over ham and pineapple pizza, could revive his role of kingmaker in a fortnight’s time as new polling shows him set to hold his seat.
Three exclusive Advertiser-Galaxy polls in independent-held seats have revealed Mr Brock is likely to be returned in Frome and former Labor MP Frances Bedford is set to clinch victory in the northern suburbs seat of Florey.
However, former Liberal Duncan McFetridge faces a heavy defeat in Glenelg-based Morphett, where he’s now running as an independent after being rolled in preselection, as Holdfast Bay Mayor Stephen Patterson now firms as the clear favourite.
Previous polling has former Liberal Troy Bell the frontrunner in Mount Gambier, despite the fact that he’s fighting charges of fraud and dishonestly dealing with more than $2 million following an investigation by the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
If the anticipated results were all realised on election day, three independents would be elected to State Parliament and they could together or alone decide who forms government.
Such a result could undermine SA Best Leader Nick Xenophon’s hopes of becoming kingmaker in the new Parliament, as other independents dilute his influence.
Mr Brock and Mr Bell have left open the option of backing either party. Ms Bedford has said she won’t support Labor on any “stupid” policies, and has campaigned alongside Mr Xenophon.
It raises the possibility that a major party with a large block of seats could do a deal with Mr Brock, Mr Bell or Ms Bedford and not have to negotiate at all with SA Best.
Currently, Labor has 23 seats and the Liberals 19. There are five independents, but former minister Martin Hamilton-Smith is not standing for re-election after polls showed him set for a humiliating defeat in the foothills seat of Waite following his defection from the Liberals.
Mr Brock was one of two independents elected in 2014, and was thrust into the kingmaker position when colleague Bob Such fell ill with a brain tumour. Mr Brock then backed Labor into government, despite a poll which showed his electorate wanted the opposite.
FROME
Mr Brock is now ahead in his seat of Frome, and poised for a narrow 52-48 victory, despite a clear backlash against his decision to back Mr Weatherill. Mr Brock’s primary vote has slipped from 44 per cent to 36 per cent, as his past supporters move to the Liberals.
Liberal candidate Kendall Jackson, who lost to Mr Brock in 2014, has boosted her primary vote from 35 per cent at the last election to 44 per cent now and is clearly in first place.
However, Mr Brock is expected to pick up the bulk of preferences from Labor’s 15 per cent of the vote and the Greens’ 3 per cent to finish the count a nose ahead of Ms Jackson.
Opposition Leader Steven Marshall is preferred premier in Frome, attracting 31 per cent support. There is a still a huge uncommitted vote of 25 per cent. Mr Weatherill, with 24 per cent to remain premier, comes in at third ahead of Mr Xenophon on 20 per cent.
SA Best is not running a candidate in Frome, first won by Mr Brock in a 2009 by-election.
Mr Brock’s supporters heavily favour Mr Weatherill over Mr Marshall as the best premier.
As part of his deal with Labor in 2014, the area has been the focus of significant government largesse including support for the $600 million redevelopment of Port Pirie’s Nyrstar smelter.
The poll of 513 people was taken on Wednesday and Thursday, at the height of media coverage surrounding the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s Oakden report.
MORPHETT
In Morphett, Dr McFetridge faces a crushing loss in a four-corner contest.
Dr McFetridge was elected as a Liberal in 2014 and holds the seat on a 7.7 per cent margin.
In a bizarre turn of events last April, Dr McFetridge was defeated in a three-way preselection tussle included former federal MP Matt Williams and Mr Patterson. Mr Patterson and Mr Williams drew with equal votes in the first round, leading to a name drawing from a hat to decide who was eliminated. Mr Patterson ultimately won Liberal endorsement by one vote.
Dr McFetridge then quit the Liberals to run as an independent.
On a two-party basis, Galaxy estimates the Liberals will win 55-45 over Labor.
Mr Patterson has a 39 per cent primary vote, almost double Labor’s 22 per cent. It represents a 14 per cent swing away from the Liberals since the last election, as their vote fractures to third parties. Labor’s primary vote is also down a hefty 11 per cent since 2014.
Dr McFetridge attracts just 16 per cent primary support, and is running fourth.
SA Best is also polling a weak 17 per cent, further evidence that support for Mr Xenophon’s start-up party may be on the slide and he could struggle to win seats on election night.
Mr Marshall is clearly the people’s pick for premier in Morphett, on 39 per cent.
The poll of 525 people was taken on Wednesday and Thursday last week.
FLOREY
In Florey, Ms Bedford is likely to win comfortably with the aid of Liberal preferences.
Galaxy estimates she is ahead of Labor 57-43, and find she has the highest primary vote.
Ms Bedford is picking up 36 per cent support, down from the 50 per cent she achieved as the endorsed Labor candidate in 2014. Labor’s Rik Morris has a competitive 31 per cent backing.
However, preference flows from the Liberals’ 21 per cent and Greens’ 5 per cent are key.
They look likely to elect Ms Bedford as an independent for the first time.
Premier Jay Weatherill and Mr Xenophon are tied in the preferred leader stakes on 28 per cent. There is a large 26 per cent undecided and just 18 per cent backing for Mr Marshall.
Mr Xenophon is most popular among Ms Bedford’s independently minded backers.
Ms Bedford, also Parliament’s Deputy Speaker, quit Labor in March after a preselection squabble that was to install former health minister Jack Snelling in her seat.
A major boundaries redraw meant that almost three-quarters of the new Florey was territory formerly in Mr Snelling’s seat of Playford. His Ingle Farm house and electorate office were both shifted into Florey as part of the redraw.
There was also confusion within the party about whether Ms Bedford planned to retire, amid claims she had confirmed an intention to vacate the seat.
The showdown was ultimately resolved in a vote of party delegates, as senior figures in both the Left and Right factions delivered the backing to give Mr Snelling a simple victory.
Ms Bedford then floated plans to run against Mr Snelling as an independent in Florey.
Mr Snelling later resigned his ministry and revealed he wouldn’t stand for re-election, rejecting suggestions he thought it was not possible to beat Ms Bedford at the ballot box.
The poll of 506 people was taken on Wednesday and Thursday last week.
MOUNT GAMBIER
Last month, Advertiser.com.au revealed Mr Bell was poised to win in Mount Gambier.
In a survey of local voters, the independent MP had 36 per cent of the primary vote compared to 28 per cent for the Liberal Party — dramatically raising the chances of a hung parliament.
A poll of 655 people in the Mount Gambier electorate by ReachTEL for the Australian Forest Products Association had Mr Bell ahead of Liberal candidate Craig Marsh on 29 per cent.
Labor received 13 per cent of the vote and SA Best 11 per cent.
A second poll in the neighbouring seat of MacKillop, held by retiring ex-Liberal deputy leader Mitch Williams, has the Liberals winning easily with 57 per cent of the primary vote.
Mr Bell is facing 26 charges, all of which he rejects. It is alleged the former teacher dishonestly dealt with more than $2 million of public money from the South East Education and Training Association and Limestone Coast Education and Training Association.
He quit the Liberals when it became public in August. Mr Bell strongly denies the claims and is fighting them in court, with no verdict expected before the election. If re-elected and later found guilty, Mr Bell would almost certainly be forced to quit, triggering a local by-election.
Mad Monday returns again in seven days’ time with three blockbuster polls to start the final week of the state election campaign. Early voting has begun, with polling day on March 17.
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