Poll shows ex-Liberal MP Troy Bell facing a fraud charges will win Mount Gambier seat at March election

A FORMER Liberal MP facing a string of serious fraud charges is set to win the seat of Mount Gambier at the March 17 state election, a shock poll reveals. SEE THE POLL FINDINGS

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A FORMER Liberal MP facing a string of serious fraud charges is set to win the seat of Mount Gambier at the March 17 state election, a shock poll reveals.

In a survey of local voters, independent Troy Bell had 36 per cent of the primary vote compared to 28 per cent for the Liberal Party — raising the chances of a hung parliament.

Former senator Nick Xenophon’s SA Best is threatening to put a wrecking ball though the major parties as he seeks to take the position of kingmaker in his own right.

However, Mr Bell is one of four incumbent independent MPs contesting the election again, who could also find a position of rare power once the votes are counted.

A poll of 655 people in the Mount Gambier electorate on Tuesday night by ReachTEL for the Australian Forest Products Association has Mr Bell almost eight points ahead of Liberal candidate Craig Marsh (29 per cent). Labor received 13 per cent of the vote and SA Best, 11 per cent.

And, a twin poll in the neighbouring seat of MacKillop, held by retiring ex-Liberal deputy leader Mitch Williams, has the Liberals winning easily with 57 per cent of the primary.

Mr Bell is facing 26 charges stemming from an Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry.

It is alleged the former teacher dishonestly dealt with more than $2 million of public money from the South East Education and Training Association and Limestone Coast Education and Training Association.

He quit the Liberals when it became public in August.

Mr Bell strongly denies the claims and is fighting them in court, with no verdict expected before the election. If re-elected and later found guilty, Mr Bell would almost certainly be forced to quit, triggering a local by-election.

State Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis demanded Mr Bell quit Parliament when The Advertiser revealed the charges in August, saying it was impossible for Mr Bell to do the job while trying to clear his name.

However, senior Labor sources are speculating that Mr Bell could become crucial for them in a hung parliament and could even be offered the Speaker’s role.

The ReachTEL polling also finds the future of the forest industry remains a major issue in the South East after the State Government’s $670 million privatisation of harvesting rights in 2012.

Respondents overwhelmingly said the industry was important to their local economies, and majorities in both seats said they were more likely to support candidates who backed it.

Australian Forest Products Association chief executive Ross Hampton said the community’s demand to support the industry was “loud and clear”.

“As the poll shows, the question of who will be our next Premier could well be decided by these electorates,” he said.

The polls also ring alarm bells for Mr Xenophon, who polled 16 per cent in MacKillop.

It has been assumed he would do well in the South East after strong results in the country at the 2016 federal election. Less than a month ago, polling in three key city seats showed SA Best candidates achieving as much as 38 per cent.

A ReachTEL poll shows Troy Bell is poised to win the Mt Gambier seat at the state election.

Both Premier Jay Weatherill and Opposition Leader Steven Marshall have since run negatively weighted campaigns against Mr Xenophon.

He’s also had an embarrassing slip up over wrong figures in SA Best’s health policy, and has been criticised for softening his anti-pokie stance.

Voters in both South East seats clearly rate Mr Marshall as their preferred premier over both other party leaders.

Fifty-three per cent of Mr Bell’s supporters want Mr Marshall as premier.

Mr Bell confirmed he would run in December, despite his legal battles, and was willing to support either major party to form government if kingmaker.

Also running as an independent is Regional Development Minister Geoff Brock, the Port Pirie-based MP who gave Mr Weatherill government in 2014. Liberal defector Duncan McFetridge is contesting as an independent in the Glenelg-based Morphett. Deputy Speaker Frances Bedford will do the same in Florey, after quitting Labor.