Galaxy poll shows Weatherill Minister Martin Hamilton-Smith will lose seat at 2018 state election
FORMER Liberal leader-turned Labor Cabinet Minister Martin Hamilton-Smith risks a crushing defeat at the March state election, according to new polling exclusively obtained by The Advertiser.
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FORMER Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith is at risk of a crushing defeat at the state election, as exclusive polling shows the Labor Cabinet minister getting just 5 per cent of the vote.
The Advertiser has obtained a segment of polling undertaken by respected firm Galaxy in seven key seats during the first week of August. Across all seats, it surveyed 2100 people.
It shows emerging Liberal MP Sam Duluk is favourite to win the Mitcham foothills seat of Waite, but Senator Nick Xenophon’s new SA Best party is well-placed to make a strong challenge.
However, Mr Hamilton-Smith would be crushed if the results were repeated on election day and is recording just five per cent of the primary vote.
The Greens get double that, on 10 per cent.
Mr Duluk is shifting into Waite from his current seat of Davenport after a major electoral redraw moved both his home and electorate office over the boundary, and leads on 41 per cent.
Labor and SA Best are deadlocked in second at 21 per cent.
If Senator Xenophon can lift his party’s vote slightly and jump into outright second, SA Best could take the seat by relying on strong preference flows from a lower-ranking Labor.
SA Best is yet to name candidates for the election, but Senator Xenophon has indicated he plans to run about a dozen and target both Labor and Liberal-held seats. There is speculation his new media adviser, high-profile former TV journalist Frank Pangallo, will stand in Waite.
Senator Xenophon has said he will run a candidate in Waite to protest Mr Hamilton-Smith’s vote against open hearings in the Oakden Independent Commission Against Corruption probe.
Mr Hamilton-Smith on Thursday said it was “my intention to stand” and the outcome in Waite “will be determined by the combined independent and minor party vote and preference flows”.
Mr Duluk said his rival’s poor polling showed local anger over his “jumping ship and supporting this toxic Labor government”. “He’s voted for closing the Repat, in his own electorate, supports the bank tax and is part of a government that has failed the people of SA,” Mr Duluk said.
Mr Duluk said there could be a tight contest between himself and with SA Best, but “there is a strong mood for changing the government, and to do that people have to vote Liberal”.
Senator Xenophon said there was a clear appetite in SA for something new.
“I’m very encouraged by the poll,” he said. “It shows that South Australians want a strong alternative to the cosy duopoly of Liberal and Labor in this state.”
Senator Xenophon, who has no longer has any seat in SA Parliament following the defection of former colleague John Darely, said he was aiming to be a kingmaker after the election.
“Things are very different out there,” he said. “We want to represent the radical centre.
“It’s one step at a time. We’ll announce candidates and see how they go.”
Senator Xenophon said SA Best’s platform would become clearer closer to the election, but it would fight for his long-held principles of limiting poker machines and promoting transparency.
Prior to the federal election last year, Mr Hamilton-Smith said he planned to endorse his own fleet of “conservative independent” candidates at the poll, but failed to find any.
At the time, he also reached out to Senator Xenophon to build a soft alliance.
Mr Hamilton-Smith made a similar call for candidates to support ahead of the Fisher and Davenport state by-elections in 2014 and 2015, where he ultimately played no role.
The Galaxy poll was commissioned by the Australian Bankers’ Association, but obtained through a separate source. It found a total 52 per cent of people in Waite oppose Labor’s $370 million state bank tax. That includes 32 per cent of people who say they are strongly opposed to the tax.
A total of 41 per cent back the tax, with a near even split between strong and soft support.