Voters are waiting to punish Anthony Albanese over living costs | Paul Starick

Banking on an interest-rate cut and his rival’s unpopularity won’t be an election-winning master plan for Anthony Albanese.

If Anthony Albanese’s masterplan to win the next election was to bank on an interest-rate cut and his rival’s unpopularity, that now lies in tatters.

Millions of voters are facing a tough Christmas and New Year, burdened by hefty mortgage repayments, energy charges, grocery bills and other inflated living costs.

At the moment, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that voters across the country are waiting with their baseball bats to punish the Prime Minister and his government.

When typical Australians are battling crippling mortgage stress and historically low housing affordability, they will want to blame someone for their daily financial pain.

A $500,000 mortgage today costs $1301 a month more than it did in April 2022, and a $1m mortgage costs $2605 extra each month, according to Canstar.

Just where do average suburban wage-earning families find that extra money without making significant sacrifices to their budget, or taking on extra work?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a press conference on Friday at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Labor insiders say there has been a debate on whether to call an election in March or May – timings influenced by the feel-good factor from a previously forecast interest rate cut.

But inflation is not likely to fall enough to trigger the much-awaited interest rate cut until at least late May, based on Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock’s latest hints in a speech on Thursday night.

But Mr Albanese has to have called an election by then – mid-May is a likely time for voters to head to the ballot box.

Labor has been trying to counter the cost-of-living crisis by painting Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as unelectable.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton during Question Time on Thursday at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

In August, Treasurer Jim Chalmers used a fiery speech to brand Mr Dutton as “dangerous”. Then, on November 18, Dr Chalmers accused him of “reckless arrogance” that could jeopardise Australia’s international relationships.

But the get-Dutton plan has not worked. A Redbridge opinion poll published on November 27 found, for the first time, a majority of Australians think Mr Dutton is ready to lead the country.

The poll also found almost half of all voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to less than a third who think it is on the right track.

The change in sentiment followed weeks of headlines about Mr Albanese’s Qantas flight upgrades and $4.3m cliff top mansion purchase on the NSW Central Coast.

When voters are travelling over the summer holidays, they might dream of getting a flight upgrade, or enjoying a luxury beachside home, and look with more than a degree of envy at Albo’s situation.

The $4.3m home on a cliff top at NSW’s Central Coast bought by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Realestate.com.au

There is some evidence that Mr Albanese and federal Labor are dragging down support for their state counterparts.

This was the case with another Redbridge poll, published in Sydney’s The Daily Telegraph on Friday. It found a majority of NSW residents thought Premier Chris Minns was doing a good job in government but fewer were prepared to vote for Labor if a state election was held today.

This mirrored findings of internal South Australian Labor research revealed by The Advertiser before the November 16 Black by-election.

Labor strategists were worried – needlessly as it turned out – that voters in the southwestern Adelaide mortgage belt seat would seek retribution for cost-of-living pain, in a stark message to Mr Albanese ahead of a federal election.

Premier Peter Malinauskas at a press conference on Wednesday. Picture: Ben Clark

Redbridge director Tony Barry told The Advertiser his firm’s research showed Mr Albanese and Labor had “significant challenges in states like Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland” but were “pretty competitive” in SA. This was “due to a combination of Peter Malinauskas’s strong personal brand and the South Australian Liberal Party’s stronger brand of part-dysfunction and part-irrelevance”.

“At the moment the South Australian Liberal Party is like watching a cross between The Benny Hill show and The Hurt Locker,” Mr Barry said.

Unfortunately for Mr Albanese, the federal Coalition has not comedically exploded and is building on voter pain to threaten his hold on majority government.