State by state figures: Livestock, crops, dairy

It’s no surprise Queensland is the leader of the pack for volume of cattle produced and value slaughtered, but how the other states stack up might be unexpected.

Grains, livestock and dairy are experiencing a bumper year, but which states are leading the pack?

Analysis of data by The Weekly Times shows which states are in the box seat for this year’s grains harvest, and which state is forecast to harvest the most.

The Weekly Times has also analysed how many sheep and lambs, cattle and calves were slaughtered and their value, and which states had the most milk production, and farms.

MIXED BAG FOR GRAINS PRODUCERS

Australia is set for a bumper grains harvest this summer as global shortages push prices high.

While farmers in some states expect to bring in record crops, others are looking at average or below average yields.

The latest national crop report from Rabobank, released this month, showed overall a slight downturn in production for most crops this year compared to last year’s harvest. The exception was canola, which topped the average by 14 per cent.

Across the states, wheat yields in NSW are expected to come in at the highest nationally, with CSIRO’s Graincast forecasting an average of 2.39 tonnes per hectare. Conditions in NSW have continued to strengthen over the past two months, with potential for yields to increase further before harvest.

Australian Oilseeds Federation chief executive Nick Goddard said canola growers in NSW were particularly well placed, with the price of canola nearing a record $1000 a tonne. High prices meant farmers had been able to invest in managing their crops to a high standard, he said.

In Western Australia, farmers are expected to bring in a record total grains tonnage despite a dry spring, late frost and severe winter waterlogging across the higher rainfall regions, according to the latest report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. The numbers come as a result of record high plantings in the state this season.

Canola production forecasts in the state are booming at 52 per cent higher than last year’s harvest. The state was “yellow from one side to the other”, Mr Goddard said.

Mr Goddard said the grains harvest would be varied across Victoria, with a dry Mallee but “very strong” yields expected for lentils, fava beans, peas and canola across the central west.

CSIRO chief research scientist Zvi Hochman said the wheat yield in Victoria would be above average, at 2.28 tonnes per hectare, far above the long term average of 1.87 tonnes per hectare.

In South Australia, Mr Hochman said there was still a “reasonable amount of uncertainty” hovering over the harvest after low rainfall and “staggered” germination of crops, but indicators pointed to an average wheat crop.

Mr Hochman said late rain in Queensland over the last week had “recharged the soil profile” a little, but with harvest already starting in the state, Graincast’s prediction was “locked in” at a below average 1.67 tonnes per hectare for wheat.

According to Rabobank price forecasts, a global shortage of wheat is expected to keep wheat prices high through to the end of 2022 at more than US 700 cents a bushel and support local prices between AUD 320-350 a tonne over the next 12 months.

Local barley prices are currently expected to trade between AUD 250-290 a tonne, supported by Rabobank’s expectation that global corn prices will trade around US 550 cents a bushel.

Demand for Australian canola is expected to remain strong, though fall from highs over the course of 2022, but still come in above average this time next year, at between AUD 600-650 a tonne locally.

TOTAL GRAINS FORECAST IN MILLION METRIC TONS:

Victoria – 7.37

NSW – 16.3

SA – 7.45

QLD – 1.95

WA – 19.81

Source: Rabobank, Oct 19

Wheat yields in NSW are expected to come in at the highest nationally

QUEENSLAND LEADS THE CATTLE CHARGE

Victoria punches above its weight when it comes to livestock processing capacity, which explains the high level of concern felt across the sector when Covid-related disruptions cause processor shutdowns or delays.

Analysis of Australia Bureau of Statistics data shows the value of sheep and lambs slaughtered in Victoria in 2019-20 was $2.2 billion — significantly higher than the $1.3b slaughtered in NSW — despite producing about five million fewer sheep and lambs than NSW.

Thomas Elder Markets analyst Matt Dalgleish said the numbers showed how dominant Victorian meatworks were in processing sheep and lambs.

“There is a huge influx of lambs each season into Victoria from NSW and South Australia for processing,” he said.

It’s no surprise, due to climate and the wild dog problem, that despite its massive geographic size, Queensland produced 1.9 million sheep and the Northern Territory had just 70.

Unsurprisingly Queensland is the leader in both the volume of cattle produced, at 10.4 million and the value slaughtered, at $6.5b.

Queensland is the leader in both the volume of cattle produced and the value slaughtered.

Again, Victoria showed how dominant it is in the processing sector, despite producing 1.5m fewer cattle than NSW, Victoria had the second highest value of cattle and calves slaughtered at $2.9b.

Mr Dalgleish said the breakdown of slaughter and volume had been “pretty consistent” in terms of the percentage during the past five years.

According to ABS the value of livestock rose in 2019-20 due to increases in livestock slaughter and disposals in response to drought conditions and growing global demand for Australian protein.

While the 2019-20 data is the latest available, the change in seasonal conditions to being more favourable may have an impact on the 2020-21 values.

As a whole, in 2019-20 cattle and calves slaughtered were valued at $14.6b — up 14 per cent from 2018-19, and sheep and lambs was $4.8b, up 16 per cent.

The increased values are despite both the cattle herd and sheep flock dropping to low numbers.

The data shows the national cattle herd, at 21 million head, was at its lowest level since 1990 at the end of June last year — down 6 per cent on 2019, due to drought in NSW, Queensland and the Northern Territory.

And the national sheep flock hit its lowest level since 1904 due to drought induced destocking, with 64 million sheep and lambs in June last year, down 3 per cent.

The national sheep flock hit its lowest level since 1904.

The disparity between the value increasing and volume decreasing can be explained by Meat and Livestock Australia’s recent state of the industry report.

It said red meat and livestock industry turnover increased 5 per cent from 2018–19 to 2019–20, driven by continued growth in the feedlot sector and record high prices across both beef and sheep sales.

“This is largely due to increased demand for grain-fed beef in export markets, while domestic supply constraints (due to the herd and flock rebuild) saw elevated livestock prices.”

VOLUME AND VALUE OF LIVESTOCK 2019-20

NSW

Sheep and lambs: 20,371,835 head and $1.3 billion

Cattle and calves: 3,602,633 head and $2.7 billion

Victoria

Sheep and lambs: 15,152,174 head and $2.2 billion

Cattle and calves: 2,045,367 head and $2.9 billion

Queensland

Sheep and lambs: 1,973,332 head and $22.7 million

Cattle and calves: 10,381,265 head and $6.5 billion

South Australia

Sheep and lambs: 10,190,075 head and $500.8 million

Cattle and calves: 908,138 head and $341.7 million

Western Australia

Sheep and lambs: 13,650,129 head and $689.5 million

Cattle and calves: 1,922,969 head and $899 million

Tasmania

Sheep and lambs: 2,161,049 head and $48.9 million

Cattle and calves: 480,248 head and $385.6 million

Northern Territory

Sheep and lambs: 70 head and $0

Cattle and calves: 1,798,845 head and $759.2 million

DAIRY BUCKS THE TREND

Coronavirus and its associated restrictions have triggered instability in many parts of the national economy.

But when it comes to Australia’s dairy industry, the usually volatile sector can’t help but buck the prevailing trend. It’s been remarkably stable. Profitable even.

Temporary irrigation water prices remain subdued in northern Victoria and southern NSW, and with above-average rainfall across most of the Murray-Darling Basin.

Tighter global supply has seen fertiliser costs increase, while droughts in the northern hemisphere have caused grain prices to rally.

Many regions are on track to produce a significant amount of feed this season.

However, Dairy Australia analyst John Droppert said above average rain during winter did create some challenges in regions such as South Gippsland.

“Gippsland has had a slower start to the season than 2020-21. You could say they’ve had four Julys in a row, rather than the normal seasonal change from winter to spring,” he said.

“Particularly South Gippsland, where pastures have been waterlogged. It creates a lag on harvest and the usual spring upswing.”

The usually volatile dairy industry is experiencing a stable period.

NSW has been a mixed bag for dairy. Previously drought-riddled regions are now refreshed for the first time in many years whereas the ever-emerald Hunter districts were hit hard by flooding early this year.

“While it received plenty of attention earlier this year, the flooding in NSW is still having an impact on dairy farms in that area around Newcastle,” Mr Droppert said.

In Western Victoria, another seemingly positive variable is preventing milk volumes from lifting — a rampaging real estate market.

“Property prices in Victoria’s west have been exceptional. That’s accelerated the shift for many from dairy to beef, whether that’s with existing owners or from a pre-existing dairy farmer to a new beef farmer,” Mr Droppert said.

Despite the soggy situation for some, the old farming maxim of “where there’s mud, there’s money” holds fast in the outlook of many primary producers.

A survey conducted by Dairy Australia at the end of the 2020-21 season found more than nine out of 10 dairy farmers in Western Australia, Tasmania and South Australia expected to make a profit this season.

The outlook in NSW and Queensland was still positive but not at the dizzying heights seen in the aforementioned states.

Victoria was a positive patchwork with the three dairy regions hovering between the mid-80s and low 90s in terms of seasonal profit confidence.

Fewer than half of all NSW dairy farmers surveyed said they made a profit last season but in 2021-22, 80 per cent anticipate that they’ll do better than break even.

Queensland farmers were less optimistic with only two-thirds expecting to make a profit this season.

NUMBER OF DAIRY FARMS AND MILK PRODUCTION 2019-20

NSW

Number of farms: 534 farms, year-on-year change -7.13%

Milk production: 1044 million litres, year-on-year change -3.51%

Victoria

Number of farms: 3462 farms, year-on-year change -1.54%

Milk production: 5619 million litres, year-on-year change 0.81%

Queensland

Number of farms: 327 farms, year-on-year change -8.15%

Milk production: 311 million litres, year-on-year change -12.89%

South Australia

Number of farms: 206 farms, -2.83%

Milk production: 488 million litres, year-on-year change -1.61%

Western Australia

Number of farms 135 farms, year-on-year change -10%

Milk production: 364 million litres, year-on-year change -2.67%

Tasmania

Number of farms: 391 farms, year-on-year change -3.22%

Milk production: 950 million litres, year-on-year change 4.40%

CORRECTION

A previous version of this article incorrectly stated Rabobank’s price forecasts for wheat, canola and barley. Rabobank’s forecast for wheat as of October 19 was AUD 320 – 350 a tonne, barley was AUD 250 - 290 a tonne and canola was AUD 600 - 650 locally.