Meat and Livestock Australia: Forecast for dramatic sheep flock recovery

The nation’s sheep numbers are forecast to rapidly rebuild thanks to good seasons, Meat and Livestock Australia projections reveal.

The nation’s flock is forecast to reach an all time record high in coming years, as producers show intent to retain stock to rebuild post-drought. Picture: Zoe Phillips

Australia’s sheep flock could reach 76 million in the next two years, off the back of two years of stellar seasonal conditions along the east coast.

Meat and Livestock Australia published the latest sheep projections report today, putting the national flock at 70.6 million for 2021: a 10.3 per cent lift on last year.

Last year saw the lowest national flock size in 100 years, totalling 64 million.

But MLA’s report put projected growth for the national flock at 19 per cent by 2023, totalling 76.2 million.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said there was “clear intent” from producers to rebuild the flock, with more first-cross ewes being retained for breeding purposes.

“We’re expecting the season to have a positive impact on carcass weights, which have been revised up to 24.8kg for lambs and 25.6kg for sheep,” Mr Bignell said.

“Lamb slaughter is also expected to rise by 3 per cent this year, although it’s forecasted that sheep slaughter will be at its lowest level since 2011 because of the additional stock retention.”

The National Trade Lamb Indicator was always forecast to finish the season at about 835c/kg.

Mr Bignell said the combination of increased slaughter levels and carcass weights for lambs was a good sign for production, which is set to be the third highest on record in 2021 at 510,000 tonnes for the year.

Lamb slaughter is forecast to rise 3.3 per cent this year to reach 20.55 million, a revision upwards of 250,000 forecast in June.

Sheep slaughter is forecast to soften, reaching 5.1 million this season, the lowest volume since 2011.

“We’re expecting that lamb production will perform well during the back end of this year, supported by a combination of new season lambs from the spring flush and old season lambs producers have held onto for additional weight gains,” Mr Bignell said.

“There are current processing restrictions in Victoria due to the recent COVID-19 outbreak that could impact these figures, given the state processes 50 per cent of national lamb slaughter, however we expect that NSW will pick up some additional production if required, as it did in a similar situation last year.”

Looking to the future, Mr Bignell said logistic difficulties due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic could present headwinds for the industry.

“Live exports of sheep could fall this year, as the strong season and high domestic livestock prices have placed downward pressure on live export volumes,” Mr Bignell said.

“There are also lingering impacts of COVID-19 causing disruptions in some of our key overseas markets, including the Middle East, but we expect a recovery in this as economies track back towards pre-pandemic levels.”