Insight: Why farmers are on track for a cracker spring
Agriculture is on track for a bumper spring. Farmers across Victoria share how they’re tracking so far – from pasture growth, to yields and rain.
Agriculture is on track for its third consecutive spring fling as a confluence of good seasonal conditions and buoyant rural commodity prices paint a positive outlook for the multibillion-dollar sector, despite several challenges.
In the past week:
GOVERNMENT forecaster ABARES upped its Australian winter crop prediction by 10 per cent to 55 million tonnes on the back of exceptional growing conditions. If realised it will be the nation’s fourth-biggest harvest ever.
THE Bureau of Meteorology’s La Nina outlook firmed at alert levels – indicating at least a 70 per cent change of the wetter-than-average pattern returning this spring. Three consecutive La Ninas is considered a once-in-a-30-year phenomenon.
LIVESTOCK stud sales roared into record territory with one line-up of 128 Angus bulls in NSW averaging a whopping $43,652 – believed to be a world record – and some sires fetching as much as $200,000.
RURAL Bank said strong demand and good seasonal conditions had propelled the value of Australian agricultural exports during 2021-22 to a record $67.5 billion. ABARES today said it was now expecting ag export earnings to hit $70.3 billion this financial year.
Despite the positive news, farmers say they face challenges on a number of fronts, including staffing, logistics, input costs and, ironically, too much rain in some areas.
The BOM has forecast upwards of 25mm of rain across large swathes of Victoria, NSW and Queensland in the next week, including in districts that have already eclipsed their annual average rainfall totals with almost a third of the year remaining.
Major southern storages Hume and Dartmouth dams were yesterday sitting at 96 per cent and 99.16 per cent of capacity respectively, prompting concerns about future downstream flooding. Dartmouth Dam is expected to spill this week for the first time since 1996. In the past week, some of the biggest rain was in the major grain growing regions of the Wimmera and Mallee, with Horsham picking up 41mm in the seven days to 9am yesterday, Kanagulk measuring 40mm, Dimboola 39mm, Longerenong 37mm and Mildura 20mm.
Wimmera farmer and National Farmers’ Federation vice president David Jochinke described the season as “sensational” but said it had its challenges with some farmers unable to plant all their crops this year due to the wet weather, and others dying in response to too much rain.
“Overall we are looking fairly handy in our patch but we are already seeing signs of disease pressure and waterlogging that is going to cap yield,” Mr Jochinke said.
In its September quarter Agricultural Commodities Report out today, ABARES said the gross value of Australia’s agricultural production was likely to come in at $81.8 billion, down slightly from the record $83.1 billion of 2021–22. Agricultural exports were forecast to reach a new record of $70.3 billion in 2022-23, spurred on by high global prices.
ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said cropping was leading the way in national agricultural value production.
In Victoria, growers are expected to produce 4.3 million tonnes of wheat, 2.5 million tonnes of barley, and 1.3 million tonnes of canola – a significant increase on June forecasts – as a result of above average rainfall and expected mild temperatures.
Victorian Farmers Federation livestock president Steve Harrison said while some properties were currently too wet, most producers across the state had received an optimal amount of rain so far this year.
“The feed is just starting to grow, and we have welcomed a great amount of rain and can handle more, but not a lot more in some areas. We are optimistic that it will be a tremendous spring once it does warm up,” Mr Harrison said.
Notwithstanding the generally positive outlook, he said there was concern throughout the farming community about a heightened risk to feed quality and quantity and localised flooding should the predicted La Nina arrive.
Upper Murray beef producer Mike Gadd said while it had been incredibly wet, expensive and arduous feeding cattle on his farm near Walwa so far this year, the winter deluge was not expected to impact the bottom line.
“The stock is about 50-100kg behind where we need them to be, so they’ll just come in a bit late,” Mr Gadd said. “I have been here 50 years and never seen it wetter than a couple of weeks ago. But the dams are overflowing after a run of dry years and so water is unlikely to be a problem in the future.”
Ian Feldtmann, who operates a mixed wheat and canola farm with some Merinos at Dookie, near Shepparton, has already received 375mm of his annual 525mm average total.
“Some of the lower lying country is wet enough already and we wouldn’t want a big downpour coming into spring or late heavy frosts for the crops that are flowering, but it is shaping up very well and we have had the confidence to feed crops with fertiliser and nitrogen,” he said.
North of Deniliquin, in the Riverina, Lachlan Bull said he was looking for a mild spring after good rain in autumn but a dry winter. “We have had 50mm in the last few weeks and the crops have rooted in good subsoil moisture and we are seeing heads pop out of cereals,” Mr Bull said. “We are looking fantastic. It is lining up right now as good as the last two seasons.”
Russell and Ethan Hocking, Prairie and Werrimull
Russell Hocking, who farms at Prairie in central Victoria with his son Ethan Hocking and Werrimull said he was on track for average yields “with a reasonable amount of upside”.
“If we get more rain in the next month, above average yields are likely,” he said.
Average yields across his properties are about three tonnes to the hectare for wheat, four tonnes to the hectare and 1.7 tonnes to the hectare for canola across a 6500ha total spread.
The closest rain gauge to the Prairie property at Bendigo has recorded 180mm of rain across the winter months of June, July and August, a little above the area’s average. The nearest rain gauge to Werrimull at Mildura recorded 60mm across the Winter months, slightly drier than average.
Ross Brown, Hopetoun
Fourth generation farmer Ross Brown says it has been a long time since he’s seen a winter as mild and wet as the one he’s just had on his property at Hopetoun.
“We’re looking as good as we could look right now. We’ve been getting rain when we need it. We’ve been very lucky,” he said.
Hopetoun had 120mm of rain during winter, off the back of 149mm of rain through autumn.
“The break was really good and we just knew that everything we sowed from that point on was going to come out of the ground and give us a really good chance,” Mr Brown said.
Mr Brown, who grows wheat, barley, canola, lupins, chick peas, lentils and oaten and vetch hay, said an average yield for wheat and barley on the property was 2.5 to three tonnes per hectare, and 1.5 tonnes per hectare for canola. This year he expected the crops to come in above average, but “we’re not home yet”, he said.
The wet winter has brought out stripe rust on the wheat and blight on the chick peas.
Daniel Keam, Wallup
Wallup mixed farmer Daniel Keam is looking forward to above average crops of wheat, barley and canola this year, but says his lentils are struggling after a wet winter.
Mr Keam, who farms wheat, barley, canola, lentils, beans, vetch hay and sheep, said he was “really, really happy” with the way the season was progressing.
“I’ve not seen the canola look as good as what it does,” he said.
The Keam property yields on average between two and 2.5 tonnes a hectare for canola, but “this year we’ll definitely beat that”, he said.
Wheat and barley crops, which normally yielded between 3.5 to four tonnes a hectare for wheat and four tonnes a hectare for barley, were also looking “well and truly above average”, he said.
The farm has had 250mm of rain since the start of April on top of 180mm in February and March.
Lentils were the one crop suffering from the high soil moisture.
“Lentils don’t like getting wet feet. There are areas that are that wet where the lentils have just drowned,” Mr Keam said.
“We won’t get anywhere near the yield we’ve had in the past three years with lentils.”
Bill Sammon, Bungeet
Mixed farmer Bill Sammon has been growing crops in the Bungeet area for decades, but this year could be the first in his lifetime he has seen three good years in a row.
“It’s exceptional,” he said.
Last year was the best year he had ever had with wheat yields of six tonnes to the hectare and canola at 2.5 tonnes to the hectare.
This year is looking similar, “touch wood”, he said.
The farmer runs sheep and grows canola and wheat across 1000ha with his son.
The rain gauge at nearby Wangaratta recorded 184mm during winter, roughly equal to the area’s long term average for the period. Soils so far were retaining moisture but not becoming waterlogged, he said.
Russell and Ethan Hocking, Prairie and Werrimull
Russell Hocking, who farms at Prairie in central Victoria with his son Ethan Hocking (pictured) and Werrimull said he was on track for average yields “with a reasonable amount of upside”.
“If we get more rain in the next month, above average yields are likely,” he said.
Average yields across his properties are about three tonnes to the hectare for wheat, four tonnes to the hectare and 1.7 tonnes to the hectare for canola across a 6500ha total spread.
The closest rain gauge to the Prairie property at Bendigo has recorded 180mm of rain across the winter months of June, July and August, a little above the area’s average. The nearest rain gauge to Werrimull at Mildura recorded 60mm across the Winter months, slightly drier than average.
Chris Nixon, Orbost
Orbost dairy and beef producer Chris Nixon is “sick of the mud”.
Now in his second year of above average rainfall in the already wet area of East Gippsland, Chris said his river flats have “been nearly underwater for 18 months”.
“It’s bloody wet and challenging at best,” he said.
A dry February earlier this year has been the only reprieve on farm where Chris is struggling to feed and manage about 550 milking cows and 800 beef cattle.
“Two years ago in September we were cutting silage and we wouldn’t dream of that now, everything is so waterlogged,” he said.
“Pasture growth is very slow and we’re still fully feeding our cows.
The yearly average rainfall for the area is between 800mm and 850mm.
“Last year up to Christmas time we got 1210mm, so 50 per cent above normal, and I would hazard a guess we’ve had 800mm so far this year already.”
Despite a dry spell last week, Chris said spring was still a long way off.
“We really need a couple of weeks of sun,” he said.
“I sold 90 steers last week and fortunately the price is very strong, and I think I should sell
Tom Gubbins, Hexham
Western District beef farmer Tom Gubbins said he was “very buoyant” after the 396mm to fall on his Te Mania Angus property so far this year arriving at the most advantageous times.
“We have had a terrific season and are currently in a really good position. The amount of rain is about average, but a lot fell at a good time through autumn, and we didn’t get a lot of rain when the soil is wet over winter,” Mr Gubbins said.
“There is as much moisture in the ground as we can have, and we are seeing kilograms of dry matter and so this means cheaper feed.
“If we continue to have a little bit of rain, with daylight hours lengthening and days getting warmer, we will slingshot over summer into next May.”
Mr Gubbins said while the beef industry remained highly profitable, its biggest challenge remained the sourcing of labour.
Regional Victoria and the Riverina sale and auction results, week ending October 20
Traralgon proved to be a hot market last week with 11 properties selling for a total value of $6 million. See the latest auction and sales results.
Australia ‘just not getting better’ at disaster response
Flood-affected residents of Rochester are still waiting for homes to be repairs in the face of ongoing insurance claims, which has left plenty traumatised.