Wet spring still likely despite end of La Nina

With La Nina officially over, grain growers are banking on a wet spring to solidify gains from a very promising start.

La Nina may be officially over, but optimism for a wet spring is still high.

Quambatook grain grower and Grain Growers Ltd chair Brett Hosking said the start to this season had been one of the best many growers had seen in years, and good spring rain looked likely.

“Soil moisture in most areas in Victoria, and pretty much right across the country, is looking OK at the moment,” he said.

Grain Growers chairman Brett Hosking. Picture: Supplied

Mr Hosking said any farmers who had had significant growth in biomass during the wet autumn and then had a dry spring could be at a disadvantage, but for most growers the outlook was favourable.

“The more biomass there is in the plant, then the more moisture required. And when you don’t have the moisture, then that’s a lot of plant that needs to be just maintained on top of producing grain.

“If it does turn incredibly dry, then the biomass could be a disadvantage, but I think most growers are optimistic that the season’s still got an enormous amount of potential in it,” he said.

According to the latest Bureau of Meteorology landscape water balance data, root zone soil moisture across much of Victoria was close to 100 per cent this week, while moisture across patches of the Mallee and Wimmera in the state’s north west remained low.

BOM head of long-range forecasts Andrew Watkins said there was “about a 50 per cent chance” of La Nina re-forming later this year.

La Nina is an irregular weather pattern that can impact patterns of rainfall and atmospheric pressure.

“About half the models that we survey suggest that we could return to La Nina in the spring.

“While back-to-back La Ninas are not uncommon, and in fact we get them about half the time since 1900, a three-year La Nina is less common, and we’ve only seen that three times since the middle of last century,” Mr Watkins said.

Even if La Nina didn’t return, climate outlooks for central and southern Australia are “wetter than normal”.